Recruiting Impact

[Bobby Burton]

Gerry divulges what he’s already heard from at least one recruit based on the new NCAA rules. It’s a new era.

 

 

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[Adam Lane]

Parents sign a contract.  Kid is now locked in.  Once an NIL contract is signed no movement.  That is the back end of the free market.  Can also see a chilling effect on the portal.  Lawsuits could abound.....

[Adam Lane]

Could also see performance based and incentive based contracts.  This going to get interesting!

[Nathan Larson]

The only control there is now is the total number of scholarships as long that is there NIL should take care of itself.

To keep this under control it should be scholarships then NIL. To transfer portal go with Rod idea with gpa and required to stay at school for two years at first. Grad transfer open market. If this will be complete chaos

Exception HC leaves.

Edited February 25, 2024 by Nathan Larson

[Adam Lane]

Nathan,

Could see term based contracts as well.  3 star - 1 year, etc.

I hate the idea this could go collective bargaining with strikes and all that nonsense.  The power two are going to have to lead this venture.  Scholarship/salary caps, terms, player reps/brokers, contracts/standards - YIKES!

[Robert Gilbert]

Great video. This ruling potentially can create a number of problems. Today if a HS player commits (or even signs a LOI) and gets a better offer, he can get out of it. If he signs a contract with a school’s collective, does that contract bind him to that school and if so, for how long? Who looks out the player’s best interest? In the past we have all seen college players going pro sign terrible contracts because they had a family member ( VY if I remember correctly) negotiating for them.  Who will govern the collectives to ensure that the players are not cheated? 
 

[Nathan Larson]

Adam,

Now the real question. Has Pandora Box been opened?

If it has this isn't going to be good nor the outcome.

[Adam Lane]

Two sides to this coin for the kids.....

Side one - They FINALLY gets some compensation for their efforts and their risk (think career injury)!  ncaa/schools have been making a mint of them for too long.  New collective TV deal from the POWER 48/60 will dwarf the NFL.  It is going to rain $$$$ very soon.

Side two - this is absolutely pandora's box for the charlatans and hucksters.  Literally, 10ssss of billions are for the taking and they will certainly want a share come hook or crook...heavy on the crook.

As to the contracts... 17 year old signs a contract.   Is he an adult?  Implications are not good on that end.  This also opens the door for above.  Someone reps him.  Kid claims he was taken advantage of.  What does the school do?   Again, lawsuits/criminal charges?  I don't know?

Kid wants out.  Has a binding contract.  What happens.  School could blow his future just sitting him for bad behavior.  He only has limited eligibility... Not the NFL where they can sit out or not perform.

 

 

[Nathan Larson]

Now we need a Pandora Box committee that involves let's say 24 people.

14 former coaches 7 former players and 3 analyst to solve this Pandora Box. So all possible problems would be solved by real brains unlike the CFP committee let alone NCAA.

[Adam Lane]

😂😂😂

[horns96]

1 hour ago, Adam Lane said:

Two sides to this coin for the kids.....

Side one - They FINALLY gets some compensation for their efforts and their risk (think career injury)!  ncaa/schools have been making a mint of them for too long.  New collective TV deal from the POWER 48/60 will dwarf the NFL.  It is going to rain $$$$ very soon.

Side two - this is absolutely pandora's box for the charlatans and hucksters.  Literally, 10ssss of billions are for the taking and they will certainly want a share come hook or crook...heavy on the crook.

As to the contracts... 17 year old signs a contract.   Is he an adult?  Implications are not good on that end.  This also opens the door for above.  Someone reps him.  Kid claims he was taken advantage of.  What does the school do?   Again, lawsuits/criminal charges?  I don't know?

Kid wants out.  Has a binding contract.  What happens.  School could blow his future just sitting him for bad behavior.  He only has limited eligibility... Not the NFL where they can sit out or not perform.

 

 

I read, I think in the Athletic, that many NIL contracts are for a player's NIL rights and not necessarily just at that school.  What does that mean for the future of transfers? Collectives may have way more leverage than we realize. Does a kid that wants to transfer now have to get another school's collective to negotiate to regain rights to his NIL?  Could a kid transfer and have his previous school's collective refuse to negotiate any further NIL deals, effectively squeezing him out of any future NIL deals?

In a lot of ways, NIL reminds me of the recording industry, where bands sign with labels for a big advance but then no longer control their product.

As for crooks in NIL, I was surprised to hear Nick Shuley mention on 3rd and Longhorn that CJ Baxter had already been through a NIL fiasco with a handler. From that interview, it seemed Baxter was very savvy about the whole process, but still got screwed over by someone representing him.  I'm sure there dozens and dozens of other examples out there.

[Texasborn91]

This is the death of college football. The teams at the top will be semi pro teams and the rest of the country might as well be doing intramural. I hate this. 

[Gerry Hamilton]

24 minutes ago, Texasborn91 said:

This is the death of college football. The teams at the top will be semi pro teams and the rest of the country might as well be doing intramural. I hate this. 

I'm a little different ... think it's just headed long term to two 24 team super conferences with revenue sharing. 

The remainder of the current FBS teams ... probably best to have a spring league/season. I actually think it would do very well. 

Head towards a ...

FCS National Champion

Group of 5 (or whatever it will be called) National Champion 

and

the CFB Playoff NC

[James Wang]

How does this impact use of non-committable offers?

[Jerry K]

Instead of schools hiring analysts many now are going to hire the best salespeople possible. I don’t like where this could go. 

[Texasborn91]

1 hour ago, Gerry Hamilton said:

I'm a little different ... think it's just headed long term to two 24 team super conferences with revenue sharing. 

The remainder of the current FBS teams ... probably best to have a spring league/season. I actually think it would do very well. 

Head towards a ...

FCS National Champion

Group of 5 (or whatever it will be called) National Champion 

and

the CFB Playoff NC

So the death of college football is accurate lol. Glad to be a fan of one of the most capable programs to tackle these circumstances though. 

[horns96]

Interesting article in Forbes yesterday, apologies if already posted - 

NCAA head warns that 95% of student athletes face extinction if colleges actually have to pay them as employees

“You’re talking about 95 percent of colleges that probably spend somewhere between … $40 million and $5 million on college sports, and they lose money,” Baker said. “They don’t have TV contracts and nobody can look at their income statements or balance sheets and conclude there would be a way for them to make money.”

Even if it's only 50% of schools that might drop scholarship sports, think of what that would do to college athletics.  How do fewer athletic scholarships affect participation in high school sports?  What does it do to the coaching profession, could there suddenly be a glut of jobless coaches? 

The questions and unintended consequences of these decisions are endless.

[Burnt Orange Horn]

4 hours ago, Texasborn91 said:

This is the death of college football. The teams at the top will be semi pro teams and the rest of the country might as well be doing intramural. I hate this. 

College football died when Saban made an academically irrelevant university's football program into a NFL farm team.

[taxsaver]

14 hours ago, Nathan Larson said:

Adam,

Now the real question. Has Pandora Box been opened?

If it has this isn't going to be good nor the outcome.

 

Pandora's Box was opened as soon as you could portal.  Then came NIL.  

And we're just at the beginning of the portal/NIL era.  No telling what ghosts and goblins will be let loose as time goes by.

A guess on my part is that the National Communists Against Athletics (NCAA) will attempt and fail to regain their "power."

But I think TEXAS will benefit from all of this CHAOS.

 

 

 

[SkiBreck]

9 hours ago, Gerry Hamilton said:

I'm a little different ... think it's just headed long term to two 24 team super conferences with revenue sharing. 

The remainder of the current FBS teams ... probably best to have a spring league/season. I actually think it would do very well. 

Head towards a ...

FCS National Champion

Group of 5 (or whatever it will be called) National Champion 

and

the CFB Playoff NC

I’m with you on the 20 to 24 team SEC and B1G, but is anyone else talking about breaking up the schedule for everyone else with a Spring schedule for the other 90 teams?

What kind of schedule does that look like for 90 teams (which probably falls to 60 teams real fast with no $$$).

[BubbaJacques]

14 hours ago, Texasborn91 said:

This is the death of college football. The teams at the top will be semi pro teams and the rest of the country might as well be doing intramural. I hate this. 

What you describe here has been the reality of college football for decades now.

[GPW Horn]

14 hours ago, Gerry Hamilton said:

I'm a little different ... think it's just headed long term to two 24 team super conferences with revenue sharing. 

The remainder of the current FBS teams ... probably best to have a spring league/season. I actually think it would do very well. 

Head towards a ...

FCS National Champion

Group of 5 (or whatever it will be called) National Champion 

and

the CFB Playoff NC

Gerry, when you say revenue sharing … is that something different than sharing the TV contract payouts by conference?