The problem with the all in on Arch mindset

[Born Burnt Orange]

Don’t get me wrong. I am excited for our boys and Arch to take the field.  I also think we will have another successful year that could be so good that we take it all.  Maybe we fall short again.  
   My problem is I have seen the idea from some of the mods and many members of OTF that we have to go all in because Arch is our QB.  I am not a fan of that mindset because I expect Texas to be a major player even after Arch leaves for the NFL.  We have QBs lined up waiting for their chance who could be even better than Arch.  This is not our last opportunity to win a title.  Sark has built a F’ing monster and we will be a force for many years to come.  You don’t believe that then go eat a corn dog with mayo.  Believe, don’t doubt. 

[LonghornFan4Ever]

I believe the key to winning big this season will be the running game.  If the OL has improved run blocking, particularly between the tackles, this team can average around 200 rushing yards a game and 5+ yards a carry.  I don't think that's unrealistic given the running backs in the room, assuming they get healthy and stay healthy.  Two of the four teams that appeared in the Final Four last season did just that, Notre Dame and Penn State.

A strong rushing attack will take a lot of pressure off of Manning to have to be 2018 Trevor Lawrence, 2019 Joe Burrow, 2020 Mac Jones, etc.  He also doesn't have to be a game manager like 2009 Greg McElroy, 2011 AJ McCarron, or 2015 Jake Coker either.  He just has to be somewhere in the middle.  Keep the chains moving, take the deep shots when they're there, and most importantly, limit the turnovers.  That's all they need to do with an improved punting situation and assuming the defense is as good or even better than last season.  Until I see how this OL looks on gameday, my expectations for this season are tempered.

I do agree that we will not see a Texas team as bad as 2010-2022 Texas for a long time.  What Sark has built overall from the coaching staff to the roster along with the leadership above him (CDC, Hartzell to Davis transition, Eltife, boosters, etc.) Texas should continue to be a top 5 program in college football long after Sark's time at Texas is over.

[Red Five]

I don't understand your premise.

[A-10HORN]

Dia Bell has a chance to be just as good 

[Paul Jespersen]

I don't see anyone planning on quitting after Arch... not sure the issue? 
All in now – and going forward til the wheels fall off lol!

🤘

[GetHooked]

51 minutes ago, Born Burnt Orange said:

Don’t get me wrong. I am excited for our boys and Arch to take the field.  I also think we will have another successful year that could be so good that we take it all.  Maybe we fall short again.  
   My problem is I have seen the idea from some of the mods and many members of OTF that we have to go all in because Arch is our QB.  I am not a fan of that mindset because I expect Texas to be a major player even after Arch leaves for the NFL.  We have QBs lined up waiting for their chance who could be even better than Arch.  This is not our last opportunity to win a title.  Sark has built a F’ing monster and we will be a force for many years to come.  You don’t believe that then go eat a corn dog with mayo.  Believe, don’t doubt. 

I got you wrong.  Sorry.

[Born Burnt Orange]

58 minutes ago, Red Five said:

I don't understand your premise.

It has been said over and over that we have this 2 year window with Arch.  It is said in a way that makes it sound like Arch is our whole team and we won’t be as good after he graduates.  My premises is that the way we are recruiting Arch is only one cog in the wheel and we will continue to be every bit as dangerous after he graduates.  Texas will be a team to be reckoned with for a long time to come.  

[Cujonation83]

5 minutes ago, Born Burnt Orange said:

It has been said over and over that we have this 2 year window with Arch.  It is said in a way that makes it sound like Arch is our whole team and we won’t be as good after he graduates.  My premises is that the way we are recruiting Arch is only one cog in the wheel and we will continue to be every bit as dangerous after he graduates.  Texas will be a team to be reckoned with for a long time to come.  

Totally agree with this sentiment 👏🏿. 

[DanielOnorato]

1 hour ago, Born Burnt Orange said:

Don’t get me wrong. I am excited for our boys and Arch to take the field.  I also think we will have another successful year that could be so good that we take it all.  Maybe we fall short again.  
   My problem is I have seen the idea from some of the mods and many members of OTF that we have to go all in because Arch is our QB.  I am not a fan of that mindset because I expect Texas to be a major player even after Arch leaves for the NFL.  We have QBs lined up waiting for their chance who could be even better than Arch.  This is not our last opportunity to win a title.  Sark has built a F’ing monster and we will be a force for many years to come.  You don’t believe that then go eat a corn dog with mayo.  Believe, don’t doubt. 

I think it would be extremely irresponsible if you don't go all in with Arch as Qb. We put an expiration date on a sophomore and junior QB who helped lead Texas to back to back final fours.

If you're holding back bullets in your pistol, shotgun etc you need to understand college is a short shelf life and you should be all in, every time, every game, every year.

If injuries come into play and a planned redshirt is next in Line do you forego the red shirt over the walk on?

The answer is yes , you have Arch Manning.

[DanielOnorato]

17 minutes ago, Cujonation83 said:

Totally agree with this sentiment 👏🏿. 

I think this sentiment is short selling that we have a future number one overall pick in the NFL  at QB which would be the first in modern Texas history 

[NothinButDaHorns34]

My expectations are in check when it comes to arch since it seems everybody has theirs sky high. Are we really gonna act like this isn’t the same kid that got into the georgia game and looked completely shell shocked like Quinn? He is going to have his bad games and i can’t wait to see the mental gymnastics the same guys last year who were ready to bench quinn for arch do in the live game threads. 

[UTexas]

30 minutes ago, Born Burnt Orange said:

It has been said over and over that we have this 2 year window with Arch.  It is said in a way that makes it sound like Arch is our whole team and we won’t be as good after he graduates.  My premises is that the way we are recruiting Arch is only one cog in the wheel and we will continue to be every bit as dangerous after he graduates.  Texas will be a team to be reckoned with for a long time to come.  

We do have a 2 year window with Arch. That part is correct. The problem with this reply as well as your OP is that literally no one (OTF staff/posters) are saying that the window completely closes after Arch moves on. The window at Texas never closes, never has. 

[Red Five]

 

39 minutes ago, Born Burnt Orange said:

It has been said over and over that we have this 2 year window with Arch.  It is said in a way that makes it sound like Arch is our whole team and we won’t be as good after he graduates.  My premises is that the way we are recruiting Arch is only one cog in the wheel and we will continue to be every bit as dangerous after he graduates.  Texas will be a team to be reckoned with for a long time to come.  

We may not be as good after Arch leaves. Who knows. We're not guaranteed anything, as we are all painfully aware. Gotta take advantage while we can, strike while the iron's hot, etc.

Are you happy we did during the VY era? We'd still be looking for our first NC in 55 years.

[DanielOnorato]

4 minutes ago, NothinButDaHorns34 said:

My expectations are in check when it comes to arch since it seems everybody has theirs sky high. Are we really gonna act like this isn’t the same kid that got into the georgia game and looked completely shell shocked like Quinn? He is going to have his bad games and i can’t wait to see the mental gymnastics the same guys last year who were ready to bench quinn for arch do in the live game threads. 

He will certainly make mistakes. Peyton who I think is an all time great threw 28 picks as a rookie. Peyton was humble and tough enough to rebound.

I think Arch is going to be phenomenal. He practiced against elite defense here and Sark is a QB whisperer.

[John F.]

I understand what you’re saying. Yes, Texas will still be Texas after Arch, and Sark is putting together a monster that will be elite for the foreseeable future. But I think the all in mindset is really two things. 
1. People think Arch has the potential to be a generational player. Guys that level like Young, Newton, Burrow, etc. win Nattys, and it’s smart to do everything to support them to do so.

2. If he is that level of player and Texas doesn’t go all in and win it all, that becomes a negative recruiting tool. With NIL that stuff may not matter as much as it used to, but it’s still a thing. Also beyond recruiting I’m sure the staff doesn’t want to be labeled “couldn’t win it even with Arch”. 

[John F.]

12 minutes ago, John F. said:

I understand what you’re saying. Yes, Texas will still be Texas after Arch, and Sark is putting together a monster that will be elite for the foreseeable future. But I think the all in mindset is really two things. 
1. People think Arch has the potential to be a generational player. Guys that level like Young, Newton, Burrow, etc. win Nattys, and it’s smart to do everything to support them to do so.

2. If he is that level of player and Texas doesn’t go all in and win it all, that becomes a negative recruiting tool. With NIL that stuff may not matter as much as it used to, but it’s still a thing. Also beyond recruiting I’m sure the staff doesn’t want to be labeled “couldn’t win it even with Arch”. 

Adding a third. Things can change in a heartbeat. I don’t want to speak it into existence, but Sark could leave for the NFL or any number of other bad things could happen to set the program back. Strike while the iron is hot applies. 

[CHorn427]

56 minutes ago, Born Burnt Orange said:

It has been said over and over that we have this 2 year window with Arch.  It is said in a way that makes it sound like Arch is our whole team and we won’t be as good after he graduates.  My premises is that the way we are recruiting Arch is only one cog in the wheel and we will continue to be every bit as dangerous after he graduates.  Texas will be a team to be reckoned with for a long time to come.  

The key thing to consider is what will happen to our recruiting if we don’t win a national championship with Arch. It will be easy for detractors to then say about Texas, “if not now/then, then when”. And they have legitimate room to say that.

For a very long time, the overall perception of Texas is that we fail to live up to lofty expectations. If we fail to win with Arch, that will be another data point that fits the narrative. At this point, the longer it takes Sark to win a championship, the more people will be convinced that the answer to the question of “if not now, when?” is “never”. 

[DanielOnorato]

Let me add that this is Manning's third year in the program. He has patiently waited and is going to blow the roof off the house. If you're not in now? Why wouldn't you be?

[Born Burnt Orange]

6 minutes ago, CHorn427 said:

The key thing to consider is what will happen to our recruiting if we don’t win a national championship with Arch. It will be easy for detractors to then say about Texas, “if not now/then, then when”. And they have legitimate room to say that.

For a very long time, the overall perception of Texas is that we fail to live up to lofty expectations. If we fail to win with Arch, that will be another data point that fits the narrative. At this point, the longer it takes Sark to win a championship, the more people will be convinced that the answer to the question of “if not now, when?” is “never”. 

Georgia didn’t suffer in recruiting the years they didn’t win the championship. Neither did Ohio state, Oregon, Michigan, Alabama or even freaking Saggies. Between the NIL and the SEC we will be good. 

[lemonandaturd]

It took Kirby Smart five years to win it all at Georgia.  Sark is in his fifth year here with coaching continuity, arguably the best defense in college football, and a Heisman trophy candidate at QB.  I'm all in.  

[Born Burnt Orange]

2 minutes ago, lemonandaturd said:

It took Kirby Smart five years to win it all at Georgia.  Sark is in his fifth year here with coaching continuity, arguably the best defense in college football, and a Heisman trophy candidate at QB.  I'm all in.  

Me too, but I am all in for life.  

[DanielOnorato]

2 minutes ago, Born Burnt Orange said:

Me too, but I am all in for life.  

We all are brother. Let's go get another natty with Arch then worry about the rest! Trust in Sark and CDC

[tenneseehorn08]

1 minute ago, Born Burnt Orange said:

Me too, but I am all in for life.  

We're all lifetime longhorns. No one is saying we don't want to win after Arch. But until the NCAA takes away eligibility rules and tom Brady can go back to Michigan to try to win a natty as a graduate student, there will always be cycles to some degree at programs. Most important player in sports is QB, so if you can re-align resources to these two years to maximize, you do it. Take for example the transfers Texas brought in this year. It is not a coincidence that Emmet Mosley, Watson, Endries, and Spence all have two years of eligibility or time before the NFL is a possibility. If you need to move some of your 2027 resources to 2026 to ensure you get the right guys in the portal next year (or to keep Colin Simmons), you do it. No question. 

And then you do the same thing with KJ Lacey and Dia Bell's prime years (or Trey Owens, if he mans up and wins the job). 

[JMarquette]

2 hours ago, Born Burnt Orange said:

Don’t get me wrong. I am excited for our boys and Arch to take the field.  I also think we will have another successful year that could be so good that we take it all.  Maybe we fall short again.  
   My problem is I have seen the idea from some of the mods and many members of OTF that we have to go all in because Arch is our QB.  I am not a fan of that mindset because I expect Texas to be a major player even after Arch leaves for the NFL.  We have QBs lined up waiting for their chance who could be even better than Arch.  This is not our last opportunity to win a title.  Sark has built a F’ing monster and we will be a force for many years to come.  You don’t believe that then go eat a corn dog with mayo.  Believe, don’t doubt. 

Nobody is saying it’s our last chance, but when you have a guy is marked as a generational talent, you do everything you can to ensure he succeeds. Nobody is saying we can’t win outside the “2 year window” but this is about maximizing Arch’s + the talent around him’s time.

[JMarquette]

48 minutes ago, UTexas said:

We do have a 2 year window with Arch. That part is correct. The problem with this reply as well as your OP is that literally no one (OTF staff/posters) are saying that the window completely closes after Arch moves on. The window at Texas never closes, never has. 

There was like a 12 year time period where there was no window lol - I would know, that’s when I was there.