CJ Vogel

There were times I thought Arch was a little flustered due to pressure. Speed of the game caught up to him a few times. But all things that were correctable after tape and more live snaps.

One start in, that holds true lol

It sure is pretty when it connects

Manning has more passes beyond 20 yards downfield than behind the LOS. Interesting nonetheless.

I went down a mini rabbit hole early Sunday morning after what appeared to be Steve Sarkisian's version of a long-drive competition with Arch Manning on Saturday. The Longhorns were bombing passes down the field. It was early, it was often, it was exciting, it was inconsistent. However, it got me thinking – is this the most vertical passing offense we have seen from a Sarkisian offense? What's the reasoning for this sudden boom or bust approach from the offense? Does it fit Arch Manning's skillset more than it does Quinn Ewers? Perhaps. Is it Arch Manning wanting to carry over the highlight reel performance from UTSA? Also maybe. But more than that, is it an inexperienced quarterback forcing deep and not finding underneath options? That's perhaps where I lean the most at the moment. It was also a bit telling in Steve Sarkisian's post-game press conference that he was perhaps a bit regretful in not finding shorter, easier throws for Manning when the offense got a bit stagnant in the third quarter. The word "greed" was mentioned at some point when describing the offensive approach. But anyways, to the point of the article – Arch Manning's first career start was the most vertical offensive passing attack a Texas quarterback has seen under Steve Sarkisian. *** A few quick stats with help from Pro Football Focus: 1. Arch Manning attempted more passes 20+ yards down field in his first start than Quinn Ewers has in any of his 25 career games as Longhorn. 2. Arch Manning's average distance of target (14.8) vs. UTSA was the longest average target distance since Hudson Card at Arkansas in 2021. It is also the longest average of any Texas quarterback with more than 15 pass attempts in a single game. 3. Quinn Ewers has played 25 games at Texas. He has an ADOT >10.0 yards downfield in 10 of his games. So far two extended appearances in 2024, Arch Manning has been north of that mark in both games. *** As a result, I started to dig a bit more into the average distance of target for Quinn Ewers, there were some notable takeaways worth sharing as well. Ewers in those 10 games with an ADOT >10 yards downfield is 6–4, with those three losses coming in the Playoff Game against Washington and 2022 against Alabama and TCU at home and Oklahoma State on the road. Those wins include ULM, Alabama and TCU in 2023, and ULM, Iowa State and Kansas State in 2022. Over the three years with Ewers at quarterback for Texas, the average distance of target has decreased significantly in each season: 2022: 10.5 yards 2023: 8.4 yards 2024: 6.2 yards We have seen Quinn become more and more accurate in each season as well. His completion percentage was 58.4% in 2022, then made a jump to 69.0% in 2023 and was hovering north of 73.4% in the two and a half games Ewers appeared in to begin this current season. For the most part, it was due to the underneath, quick throws that allowed his playmakers to create after the catch. Now, the point of this article isn't to push the narrative that the vertical passing offense is an issue for Arch Manning. It's not. But it is worth noting the risks that come when the vertical shots are not falling. Essentially, living and dying with the three ball in basketball. Texas in the third quarter saw what happened when the well went dry with two consecutive three & outs when the offense failed to connect on anything. Against SEC opponents, that will not fly. Arch was 3/10 on passes beyond 20+ yards against ULM with both an interception and a touchdown in the process. *** So back to Saturday night for Manning. It was a solid night. We covered earlier it wasn't a terrific night by any means. Manning found a rhythm after the first interception then lost it near halftime and around the third quarter. On the season so far for Arch, he has a mark of 25% of his pass attempts beyond 20 yards downfield. A smallish sample size, but it certainly does not feel like the Texas offense we have seen with Quinn Ewers behind center. 2019: Tua Tagovailoa (15.5%) on 252 attempts 2020: Mac Jones (13.8%) on 385 attempts 2021: Hudson Card (15.5%) on 76 attempts 2021: Casey Thompson (16.3%) on 247 attempts 2022: Quinn Ewers (17.6%) on 277 attempts 2023: Quinn Ewers (11.9%) on 367 attempts 2024: Quinn Ewers (8.9%) on 75 attempts 2024: Arch Manning (25.5%) on 44 attempts Again, a smaller sample size, but the volume of deep passes with Manning at quarterback is quite an outlier when comparing previous Sarkisian quarterbacks. As Manning gets more and more familiar with real game experience, the more I expect him to find the check down or opt for easier throws. It just makes sense with the Texas offense and the way these playmakers are able to create after the catch.

Quite the hot streak for Schloss this week.

Secondary play has been tremendous this season.

The Longhorns are continuing to big game hunt and their efforts to flip targets committed elsewhere is still ongoing. I chatted briefly with five-star Mission Viejo CB Dijon Lee tells me a visit to Austin for a Texas game remains possible this season. Nothing is set in stone at the moment, but there have been conversations with the staff to get back for a game at some point this fall. Lee committed to Alabama since the end of June after what appeared to be a sneaky push by the Longhorns in this recruitment.

Colton Vasek is going to be so good during his career for Texas.

51–3 Texas.

Sideline went berzerk for Niblett there. Means something for him to score and he means something to this team.

Safety!!

I agree.

Attendance; 102,850

Texas is allowing 3.3 yards per rush by the way. That's solid.

By my count, there have been 7 pass attempts beyond 25 yards by Manning in that first half.

2 minute drill? I have no issues with those play selections.

It might be time to question how reliable of a receiving option Jaydon Blue truly is.

Arch just missed Blue for what would have been a 70-yard TD. Bet he wants that one back.

Texas tossed in a ton of the 2nd and 3rd string unit on that FG drive for ULM. A good throw by the ULM QB on the corner route into the end zone would have been picked off by Andrew Mukuba. I hope I am able to find a clip of that for future reference but that was brilliantly under cut by the veteran safety.

Tre Wisner doesn't have his helmet in hand for what it is worth. He won't play this evening.

Incomplete.

I don't know if Amari Niblack is suited for punt return team.