Jeff Howe

Kentucky was actually 1-of-3 on fourth down. Felt a lot worse though. Vanderbilt was 2-for-2, FWIW.

🤘

Shoutout to @CJ Vogel for his time-of-possession breakdown, which sent me down a rabbit hole examining play differential. In our Longhorn Blitz days with @Rod Babers, Matt Butler and I, Matt is the one who pointed out play differential as something to look to understand TOP better (kinda like looking at touchdown rate in the red zone instead of conversion rate as a whole when determining success or failure).

After reading CJ Vogel’s examination of time of possession as a statistic that must change for Texas to reach its ceiling in 2026, my focus shifted to play differential. It’s not that one statistic is better than the other. I prefer to lean on a team’s play differential (the positive or negative difference between the number of plays a team runs on offense and the number of plays their defense faces) because it’s a more precise measurement of game control. If an opponent leans on an up-tempo offense and runs a lot of plays with a premium on getting more possessions, or if an opponent wants to take the air out of the football and make the game shorter, play differential can paint a more accurate picture than time of possession. No matter how you slice it, when it comes to what the Longhorns did last season, play differential (like time of possession) must improve to maximize the team’s potential. Texas finished the 2025 season with a minus-47 overall play differential (minus-3.6 per game), which ranked 15th in the SEC. Against SEC competition, the Longhorns had the worst total play differential (minus-79) in the conference and ranked last in the SEC in per-game play differential (minus-9.9). In short, Texas’ conference opponents ran roughly 10 more plays per game than the Longhorns. That might not sound like much, but when considering that SEC foes averaged 1.5 scoring drives of 10 or more plays per game against Texas (12 double-digit play scoring drives by SEC opponents in eight conference games), it's a problem that must be fixed. The highest priority to get the issue resolved is the Longhorns running the football better than they did last season, especially in conference play. Only Alabama’s 89.9 rushing yards per game against SEC opponents kept Texas from being the worst rushing offense in the conference, with an average of 93.1 yards per game on the ground in eight conference games. Texas also must do a better job of getting off the field on third and fourth down, which includes being a better defense on first and second down. Pete Kwiatkowski's defense faced an average of 14.7 third downs per game against SEC opponents in 2025, a mark topped only by Oklahoma’s 14.9 for the most in the conference. Even when the Longhorns got third-down stops (a 39.8-percent conversion rate by SEC opponents ranked 10th in the conference, which was well above the defense’s season average of 33.5 percent), only Ole Miss defended more fourth-down conversion attempts (34 in 15 games) than the 31 times the Texas defense was on the field on fourth down. The Longhorns finished fourth in the conference and tied for 30th nationally in fourth-down defense (45.2-percent conversion rate allowed), but only Alabama and Auburn (15 each) allowed more teams to convert on fourth down than the 14 times it happened to the Longhorns. Texas allowed opponents to convert eight of the combined 16 fourth-down attempts it faced against SEC opponents. Without question, coming off a year in which the Longhorns were one of five SEC offenses that failed to run at least 500 plays against conference opponents (499, which tied with Florida for the third fewest in the league), the running game must improve. At the same time, Steve Sarkisian brought Will Muschamp back to the Forty Acres to call the defense so that his aggressive style can create more negative plays to get opponents behind the chains and promote more turnover-forcing opportunities, which must happen for Texas to shrink the wide gap in play differential from last season. View full news story

This isn't directed at you @LonghornFan4Ever, but I refuse to click on that video. The scream-at-people shows have made ESPN unwatchable during the day.

I don't know if you get into breaks, but some breakers will sell a spot for all of the paper cards when they break Bowman products.

Can someone explain to me why the Big 12 thought it would be a good idea to schedule Texas Tech and TCU on Thanksgiving? Texas tried to start that tradition with both of them. Nobody cared.

I liked the basketball Rookie Sensations, too. Also, Fleer Pro Visions were the original Downtown hits!

Oh yeah. That conversation with the wife is coming!

DeShon had one of the best seasons by a Texas DB that nobody remembers. Sad that it’s kinda been lost in the shuffle of the Strong-to-Herman transition.

Those were monster chases back in the day!

I’m putting together a run of Longhorn 1st Bowman refractor autos. Baseball and Bowman Chrome U. Just picked up Max Belyeu this week:

I’ve either got the worst Jeff Bagwell rookie card you can have, or one of the best. ‘91 Fleer is like a movie that’s so bad, it’s good!

My dad ran a shop in Georgetown when I was a kid. The junk wax boom was nice because you were never too far from a store. Collected pretty much up until I graduated high school, but did buy a LeBron rookie because I figured it would be worthwhile to have down the road. It's not a huge card, but I like that it has gone everywhere with me since 2003.

Texas wins the game if either Bert Auburn comes through or Trey Moore doesn't end Carson Beck's Georgia career on the last play of the first half.

I forgot how bad it was under Herman. And I'm scared to look back at where Charlie's teams ranked. It's been a problem for a while.

He wouldn't be staying in the draft if he didn't have that guarantee. Assuming the Mavericks keep pick No. 30, he won't get by them (and probably won't get by the Nuggets at No. 26, again, if those teams keep those picks).

I'd like Swain and Tre Johnson to pan out better than the last time Texas produced back-to-back lottery picks, which was Mo Bamba (2018) and Jaxson Hayes (2019).

Not a surprise to OTF subscribers. Best of luck to Dailyn Swain in the NBA. He had a heck of a year for the Longhorns.

Texas forward Dailyn Swain is keeping his name in the 2026 NBA Draft, officially forgoing the rest of his collegiate eligibility. “Two feet in” is how Swain is characterizing his draft status, according to ESPN's Jeff Borzello, who reported on Wednesday that Swain has “closed the door” on returning to the Longhorns. On Texas Football has reported since Swain declared for the draft on April 7 that Sean Miller and the Texas staff were building the 2026-27 roster with the idea that Swain wouldn’t return to the Forty Acres. Swain didn't enter his name into the NCAA transfer portal, which meant the Longhorns would've been his only option if he'd decided to return to college. Swain, who participated in the NBA Draft Combine over the weekend, where he measured 6-feet, 6 ½ inches in bare feet and weighed 211 pounds with a 6-foot, 10-inch wingspan and standing reach of 8-feet, 8 ½ inches, is projected to go in the first round of the draft on June 23. Sources have told OTF that the Miami Heat and Oklahoma City Thunder are among the franchises to express the most interest in Swain as he’s gone through the draft process (the Thunder have the 12th and 17th overall picks, while the Heat have the No. 13 overall selection in what’s considered to be a historically deep draft). If Swain is selected in the first round, it will mark the second consecutive draft for the Longhorns to produce a first-round pick. Tre Johnson, the 2024-25 SEC Freshman of the Year, was the sixth overall pick in last year’s draft by the Washington Wizards. It will be the first time Texas has produced back-to-back first-round picks since Jarrett Allen (2017), Mo Bamba (2018) and Jaxson Hayes (2019) went in the first round in three consecutive drafts. Swain would be the 21st Longhorn to go in the first round of the draft. Texas has produced 16 of its 20 first-round picks since 2000, when Chris Mihm went No. 7 overall to the Chicago Bulls (his draft rights were later traded to the Cleveland Cavaliers). Swain’s lone season with the Longhorns was a memorable one, helping Texas reach the Sweet 16, where the team came within a last-second bucket in a 79-77 loss to Purdue from reaching the Elite Eight. A finalist for the Julius Erving Award, which recognizes the top small forward in college basketball, Swain was named SEC Newcomer of the Year by the league’s coaches, who made him a second-team All-SEC selection. A starter in each of the team’s 36 games during the 2025-26 season, Swain led Texas in scoring (17.3 points per game), rebounding (7.5 per game), assists (129 total and 3.6 per game) and steals (59 total and 1.6 per game) while averaging a team-high 32.8 minutes per game. Swain shot a career-high 54.2 percent (214-for-395) from the field, 81.5-percent (163-for-200) from the foul line and a career-best 34.4 percent from 3-point range (32-for-93). Swain reached double figures in scoring in 33 of 36 games, recording 12 20-point games and two 30-point performances, including a career-high 34 points against Mississippi State on Jan. 3. Grabbing a career-high 14 rebounds against the Bulldogs marked one of Swain’s eight double-doubles on the season. Swain played a significant role in the Longhorns finishing Miller's first season with a 21-15 record, including a 9-9 mark in the SEC. Swain, who was recruited by Miller out of high school and transferred to Texas after two seasons at Xavier after Miller was hired by the Longhorns on March 24, 2025, helped Texas earn a No. 22 ranking in the season-ending Associated Press Top 25. View full news story

I can get that breakdown.

Here's how the national champions in the CFP era have performed regarding penalties. As a reminder, this was Texas in 2025: 8.3 penalties per game (No. 134 in FBS); 69.7 penalty yards per game (No. 132 in FBS) Indiana (2025) — 3.8 PPG (T-5th in FBS); 27.6 PYPG (No. 2 in FBS) Ohio State (2024) — 4.5 PPG (T-11th in FBS); 40.8 PYPG (No. 16 in FBS) Michigan (2023) — 3.0 PPG (T-1st in FBS); 27.5 PYPG (No. 3 in FBS) Georgia (2022) — 4.4 PPG (No. 12 in FBS); 47.3 PYPG (T-39th in FBS) Georgia (2021) — 5.1 PPG (T-26th in FBS); 42.5 PYPG (No. 20 in FBS) Alabama (2020) — 6.0 PPG (T-60th in FBS); 48.1 PYPG (No. 48 in FBS) LSU (2019) — 6.2 PPG (No. 72 in FBS); 62.4 PYPG (No. 107 in FBS) Clemson (2018) — 4.87 PPG (No. 24 in FBS); 44.9 (No. 28 in FBS) Alabama (2017) — 5.0 PPG (No. 31 in FBS); 40.6 PYPG (No. 22 in FBS) Clemson (2016) — 6.33 PPG (T-73rd in FBS); 58.0 PYPG (T-85th in FBS) Alabama (2015) — 5.6 PPG (No. 45 in FBS); 55.7 PYPG (No. 67 in FBS) Ohio State (2014) — 5.6 PPG (No. 50 in FBS); 47.7 PYPG (No. 43 in FBS)

This probably won't be the last time I write about penalties. Nevertheless, I wanted to look at the national champions in the CFP era and figure out how much Texas must improve for penalties to no longer be a deterrent to winning a title. Six or fewer penalties per game and 45 or fewer penalty yards per game should be a fair place to set the bar for improvement in 2026.