Here for the Wins

@Inspired73 if I am following your lead correctly, confusion and waning confidence, brought on by poor technique and assignment sharpness, can overtake passion and toughness rather quickly.

Did you think that when Caleb Williams was similar on his way to the Heisman? In my opinion, they should drill down further. Those types will hold the ball longer because they won’t give up on plays. Tom Brady versus Mahomes. Who would you think is higher? Interestingly enough, there was someone who posts on here that in 2021 pointed the finger on pass protection being the culprit for Casey Thompson having the quickest time to throw in the Big 12. Think it was around 2.71 seconds. There are tons of variables on that component. Percent of screens, depth of target, ability to evade the rush then throw as compared to get sacked, etc. And certainly how decisive the QB is but thst gets obscured due to the other stuff. I am not arguing your point because I think we need to creative throwing the ball particularly if we cannot run it.

I said Murray’s very knowledgeable. Jesse Palmer played too. Sark as well. Are you saying they are above critique? I am a nobody. I am a dude that was converted to QB in an era in Texas when few, if any, QBs progressed to the NFL. There were guys in this state fully capable of that but schemes and coaching didn’t dictate. Guys like Brees had to run to Purdue. I’m not saying I was one of those guys, but I could throw it 60 yards and at one time was pretty damn fast. We never worked on footwork, throwing motion. In retrospect it was a poor move to convert me for numerous reasons. I was good enough to get some recruiting looks at a different position in spite of rarely, if ever, playing the position or system that played to my strengths. That’s a retrospective look at it. A brief one at that. Since that time I’ve watched the hell out of some football, observed elements of it beyond the norm, evaluate some stats with some attempt to delve into them further, coached some youth and observed a generation grow up in today’s game. Personally, I’ve had an a ha moment relatively recently about this. Largely due to this observation about a generation growing up. Here is what I said and will say about UTEP. The run-pass ratio was 71% run in the 1st quarter. Only 4 games since the start of 2024 has it been 50% or greater. If I remember correctly, two of those were 50%. So which is the outlier? This was the first game that Neto didn’t rotate. The Oline played the entire game. On like our first 11 first down plays, all runs but 2 passes. On first and 2nd down to start that 1st quarter, Arch had 5 opportunities. All were positive. Then he missed Wingo then didn’t throw to Livingstone then missed Livingstone. Absolutely needs to make those plays. Beyond that it was chaos with dudes playing that I’m not sure how much they even practiced together. Niblett got a passed defensed for heaven sakes. The way that game played out was like no other I can recall from a play calling standpoint and a personnel standpoint. It would also lead me to believe we prepared heavily to run the ball. We were never at risk of losing. I don’t recall seeing Niblett playing the slot since. Have you? I don’t recall Clark being 5-wide and running a hitch since. Do you? From the QB standpoint, it’s really who cares in my book. But you always try to learn and improve. I said going into Florida that you wouldn’t see that gameplan. You didn’t. Whatever issues you felt at UTEP, they weren’t the same at UF. Based on an educated guess on practice then how it was presented versus UTEP, that was a wasted week from a team and QB standpoint. That was a coach choice not a QB one. But you do have to consider Moore and Baxter injuries but still poor. Lastly about Murray the reference to his completion percentage opens the door to plays that didn’t work exactly right. It happens to all QBs. It is being presented that Arch is somehow infinitely worse at those things. The discussion on those fronts is not balanced. And again, I’d ask if a critique is saying I’m not sure what he’s looking at, shouldn’t that critique have some discussion regarding what defense he prepared for then also what defense they’re playing? You know since that might dictate what the QB is evaluating. Yes, Murray says if the safety stays down, he’s looking Wingo. What I’m saying, and sure tell me I’m completely wrong if you think so, but I’m not completely wrong anyway. That safety bails to the middle of the field, turns his back on Wingo so to get back in the play he has to turns his hips, get back outside and outrun a guy who is likely faster. The back end looks like cover 3, but who knows cause someone dropped off that area where Endries ran. I’m guessing but do not know that Arch got a different look post snap than presnap then due to pressure timing was made more difficult. Murray didn’t answer those questions but merely threw out a question himself. But he’s the professional so I get his opinion is more respected and in turn, valuable. I may put myself on ignore for the length of this post.

There’s no doubt opportunities to make additional plays. The Wisner TD is clearly “what are you waiting on” but it should be difficult to complain when the success is the same. Just last week Bo Nix had back to back red zone plays similar to that in which held it too long. The Wisner one was more extreme, but it’s not uncommon.

You’re my boy blue. You didn’t ask, but I’ll share a bit my background on why I am the way I am with my message board persona. I’m old and bitter, just not as old or as bitter as some around here. My sports experience that forms my beliefs and thoughts here is varied and quite unique. You won’t find many here, if any, more unique. That’ll offend some feelings here by the mere suggestion. That’s often more found in the disappointment than success. Successes, failures, observations and reflections. Those experiences tell me that all of us, even professionals turned analysts, YouTube wizards, whatever, are wrong quite often. Peoples “feel” or “eye tests” are pretty weak and surprisingly cannot be supported. Then when presented with contrary data, they go silent often. At the same time there’s a lot to be learned from many sources and the accumulation of that information begins to add up. Think I’ll go watch some Coach Dan Casey for some cool plays.

I added one in an attempt for me to be less annoying to others. The ignore feature doesn’t seem to work.

Was it 4 first round WRs? A first round RB that averaged almost 6 per carry? Going against defenses that missed spring and summer workouts? Sure, make comparisons to anomaly. Jones at Bama, Burrow at LSU are not normal seasons. Those are exceptions to the rule.

Quinn was merely a comparison for individual performances and production. As I’ve quoted Beck stats versus UF. Poor numbers versus UF, dominating versus all others. Incredibly experienced guys. Again a comparison. There’s little about the UTEP game compared to this one. The pressure from UF was tremendous. We started with more of a pass emphasis. UTEP was a heavy run game emphasis. And contrary to public opinion, it had little to do with Arch on its face. There was no rotation on the Oline for the first time this year. They played the whole game other than Hutson getting hurt. All indicative that the emphasis was on the run on the game that week. There was an extensive usage of backup skill guys, several of whom who had played very little to that point. He threw 2 passes beyond 20 yards versus UTEP. His average depth of target versus UF was 20 yards with a stated gameplan of attacking downfield, indicating they practiced that all week. From game 1 of 2024 up until now, the 1st quarter run-pass ratio had 1 true outlier in favor of run over pass - UTEP. Sure. He’s missed throws. Sure he’s missed guys. It’s ignoring what Ohio State and UF have done to other guys. And Arch was on the road with mediocre pass protection at best and a run game that couldn’t punch it in either. LSU got 13 offensive points off 5 interceptions and the D scored 7. This narrative regarding Arch infers that it’s unique to him and beyond what happens to others. Sark has stated more than once teams show us different looks than what we see on tape. That could be the case versus say an OSU or a UF. When it’s stated “I’m not sure what he’s doing,” in these “honest” evaluations, the discussion is limited when you cannot discuss or don’t discuss what he prepared to see versus what he got. I certainly don’t have that information and assume many do not either. The biggest thing is we need him to finish the big end of game drives. He needs to learn that from Vince, Colt and Sam.

Did Quinn see the field well when we scored 17 against the Aggies, 20 against the Pigs, 14 against the Buckeyes? It’s been referenced or implicated that 3rd year guys are better. In those games we ran incredibly well versus the Aggies, decent against the Pigs, not so good against OSU. And surprisingly the worst run game of those 3 resulted in the fewest points. Probably had the most pressure too. People are stumbling over themselves to be seen and to profit. Hot and over the top takes is the theme of the day. Can you explain to me what seeing the field looks like because ultimately it has to result in points as that is your objective? And even as many passes as he’s thrown Murray needs to know what coverages we prepared for and what coverages did we actually get. There is absolutely a lack of honesty or understanding. And that screen play to Endries is a perfect example. Arch evaluated the risk and adjusted his actions based on that. It’s not even worth critique much less the criticism that some put upon it. He actually gave his team a chance. It just didn’t work out.

@CJ Vogel Two Qb philosophical questions. Should a QB look deep to sort or short to deep? And why? If you have a WR singled up, is it ever a bad choice to make that throw? I’m not asking if it’s the best choice.

The one in which he is talking about ripping the post that ends at 3:32. The one in which the Db is over the top in prime position to break on the ball. At 7:45, he’s paused it. He’s yammering about the safety in the middle. Screenshot below. That safety is done on a well thrown ball because he and Wingo are even at the 50. He’s not running faster than Wingo and will have a greater distance to travel. Undoubtedly, the short route is the top choice, but Wingo had better leverage here than on the previous play. That safety was outside the hash to start, turns his back to Wingo as he moves to the middle of the field. So, there’s likely a justified reason for Arch’s actions. At some point, you’ve passed the point of no return with a heavy pass rush. I’m thinking rush or not he’s going deep. It’s certainly a far lower percentage throw, but no one is complaining if there’s 6 on the board. You may also have some defensive subtlety too on this particular play. Murray does mention a time or two that he’s not sure what’s discussed in meetings. I’ve heard a little about UF running cover 2. Colleges will run some different coverages and sometimes they blow it, but sometimes it’s not egregious enough to screw up but moreso add confusion to the QB. He never addresses the coverage (actually he says single high) but it looks as though we’re going deep thirds. Otherwise, there’s talk of cover 2 and 4. So, if we’re working all week on cover 2/4, then this is an unexpected variation with pretty quick pressure, that’s part of the equation. So, explain to us Murray what happens to your eyes, your reads if the defense gives you unexpected looks? Defenses have evolved a great deal in the last 10 years. Maybe that didn’t happen much. Murray clearly knows the position but seems to forget he was a 62% passer with some variation of missed reads, slow reads, pressure that caused him to miss on 38% of his balls. The context surrounding these discussions is sorely lacking.

He’s at SMU. Now a 3 year starter. I don’t know but pure speculation on my part is that he was not a Flood recruit so expendable. Different situations for sure, but he’s probably had a better career than Hutson.

Not Campbell. Logan Parr. He’s been solid for several years but had few opportunities here.

Apparently the kid that was at Texas is the #1 pass blocking Guard in the country. At least as of right now.

On ESPN Greg McElroy says Carson Beck is playing out of his mind. I heard that right now. He meant on a good way. Yet against UF he was at 56%, 160 yards, no TDs, 1 pick. He was pressured 19% of the time. On those 6 pressures, he was 1-5 for 9 yards and a pick. He completed 64% otherwise at a depth of 3.4 yards. But I suppose no one was open and UF was playing with 14 guys but against us, oh they were awful. Or maybe he said, “screw my game. I’m relying on the defense.” Maybe the WRs took the day off.

He’s a moron. On that screen, there was a guy in the first window, a guy in the second window too. In all his arrogance, he tells me it's to be thrown immediately until I show him the screenshot with two guys squeezing Endries in that window so then he says the 2nd window is open and that the defender is too locked leg to the play. The absolute risk is a tip and pick. His actions were completely reasonable. So every time you get a screenshot, every defenders reaction is based on the action to the point. If a QBs head, shoulders and feet are down the middle of the field, then certainly in a non-man coverage situation, the defender will act accordingly. So, if that Qb shifts to the right flat, like in the Endries Ohio State shot, then defenders will begin to move so 15 yards of space when the QB is not ready to throw and has to throw it 30 yards, the pass catcher has to catch, turn and run isn’t as open as he appears. And sure, that curl right, imagine the corners reaction when he sees those shoulders and hips turning that way. He has help deep, he has help to the inside. There’s no threat underneath. It is entirely possible the QB identified that early and went to the other side of the field because the numbers were more advantageous. The last one before the screen. If that’s the play I think it is, there is a similar if not identical to the right. There’s absolutely no way to know which side will be open initially. But you can imagine that a right handed QB may look right first. You can pretty much do this all day, every day on zone coverage. There will always be missed QB opportunities. And you’re pretty much a moron if you think on 5 man routes the QB will find the first man open or the only man open every time.

He’s a little awkward on slants, but I don’t generally buy that. If it’s truly quick, there’s not much else you can do. Set your feet and rip it.

Sark has great play designs. I think one play you might be wanting is the 2nd play of the game versus UTEP. Well executed. Simple execution. I don’t recall seeing it since then. Not sure we saw it prior to that. Hes got a ton at his disposal that could help. Like maybe someone WR other than Wingo gets a carry. Sometimes his good stuff disappears for too long.

And as far as Neto how does that impact the other Z on the team?

A little look and comparison on our screen game the past 3 years. 2024 was the least effective in terms of yards per play in the 6.4 range then this year at 7.8 and 2023 at 8.5. 2024 was the lowest in terms of completion percentage and adjusted completion so that probably brings the ypp back in line. Sark for sure needs to lean into it a bit more but we’re not much different than years prior although UF likely competes with the fewest Sark has run since his arrival.

But you’re not a coach. Or are you? That’s a joke by the way. If you get the time and inclination, maybe throw together a graph game by game on the ball distribution- behind LOS, 1-9, 10-19, 20+. Pair it with run-pass ratio. I would wager a bit of our issue is that the gameplans are too varied given our lack of playtime with each other. The merry go round at RB and LG also play into that. I think we wasted that UTEP week.

Maybe you should ask why the performance last weekend was less inspiring than the opener.

Positivity. The pass protection problem, if you believe in PFF grades, is not widespread. LG and RB were the issues. Is that fixable? Maybe Baxter returns and handles part of it. There are options to make LG serviceable.

The play that got it to 2nd and 1. Why is it not in our playbook/used?

Umm Ceej, you can’t put Wingo there. Not only the drop, but he had the easiest play of the day in his midst and failed to convert.