OTF Premium Flawed logic has tainted the College Football Playoff selection process

[Jeff Howe]

What Bruce Feldman said in one social media post encapsulated the growing angst toward the College Football Playoff Selection Committee.

Upon the release of the committee’s penultimate rankings on Tuesday, the path to a third consecutive trip to the CFP for No. 13 Texas is, for all intents and purposes, a dead end. To get into the 12-team field, the Longhorns need Texas Tech to win the Big 12, Georgia to notch a landslide revenge victory over Alabama in the SEC title game and then hope the committee values the body of work Texas has put together throughout one of the toughest 12-game schedules any Power Four team had to navigate (LSU is the only bowl-eligible team ranked above the Longhorns in ESPN’s strength of schedule metric, which says Steve Sarkisian’s team played the eighth-toughest schedule in the country).

That’s unlikely to happen because the committee, based on what committee chair Hunter Yurachek said on Tuesday’s post-reveal conference call with reporters, believes Texas’ 29-21 road loss to Florida on Oct. 4 is too big a blemish to overlook.

“You’re spot on,” the Arkansas athletic director said when he was asked if the loss to the Gators is “the thing hurting Texas the most.”

“The committee has a great deal of respect for Texas and they've played an incredible schedule,” he added. “They've got four teams they played in our top 10. They beat OU on a neutral field. They just beat Texas A&M at home this past weekend. They lost to No. 1, Ohio State, and lost to No. 3, Georgia.

“But one key stat this week in the teams ranked in our top 15, there's 17 total losses for those teams. Sixteen of those losses came against teams that are currently ranked or have been ranked in our top 25 this year. The only loss to an unranked team was Texas' loss to Florida at Florida, and really Florida dominated that game — held Texas to 50 yards rushing, two interceptions. So, it's not that Texas played Ohio State. It is Texas' loss to Florida that's holding them back now.”

We don’t need to read the tea leaves when the committee is shoving them down our throats. When it comes to Texas, the committee has decided that an objectively bad loss supercedes three wins over teams currently ranked in the committee’s top 15.

That would be understandable had Yurachek’s words and the committee's actions done anything other than validate Feldman’s rant. The committee ranks teams as it wants, then works backward to make it make sense.

How is Texas dinged for the Florida loss, but Alabama’s two-touchdown loss to a Florida State team that finished 5-7 after getting blown out by the Gators last Saturday doesn’t matter?

Head-to-head results appear to matter for Oklahoma and Alabama (No. 8 and No. 9, respectively) and Texas and Vanderbilt (the Longhorns passed the 10-2 Commodores in the rankings). That's the case for No. 12 Miami, which opened the season with a win over No. 10 Notre Dame.

Two weeks ago, Yuracheck said Oregon was still getting credit for a road win over Penn State. The same appears to apply to Oklahoma's road win over Tennessee and road wins over Missouri for Alabama and Texas A&M, the Aggies going into Baton Rouge and manhandling LSU and the Crimson Tide's Iron Bowl win over Auburn.

Still, Yuracheck said on Tuesday that Vanderbilt lacks a signature win because LSU, Missouri and Tennessee aren’t currently ranked by the committee, even though Josh Heupel’s team fell out of the rankings after the Commodores’ 45-24 rout of the Volunteers in Neyland Stadium.

The CFP selection process isn’t broken. It would’ve needed to be a well-oiled machine first, which was never the case. And although no system will ever be perfect, a transparent process that leaves more questions than answers isn't working.

Bill Hancock was the executive director of the CFP from its inception through last season, when he helped Rich Clark transition into the role. In 2023, when a late-season injury to quarterback Jordan Travis put Florida State’s CFP hopes in doubt, Hancock clarified the selection committee’s criteria for setting the then-four-team field.

“It is ‘best,’” Hancock said. “‘Most deserving’ is not anything in the committee's lexicon. They are to rank the best teams in order, and that's what they do. Just keep that word in mind, ‘best’ teams.”

Therein lies the problem.

Three wins over Associated Press top-five opponents and nine wins against one of the toughest schedules in the country should be a strong enough résumé for the Longhorns to be considered one of the seven best at-large teams. The committee clinging to the Florida loss to justify why Texas should be on the outside looking in is a prime example of how the selection process doesn't end with a bracket of the best teams.

Don’t say you’re picking the best teams when Miami’s head-to-head win over Notre Dame, as of now, doesn’t matter.

Don’t say you’re picking the best teams when Texas and Vanderbilt, both of whom went 6-2 in the toughest conference in the country, are likely headed to meaningless bowl games. At the same time, Sun Belt favorite James Madison and the winner of the AAC title game between North Texas and Tulane could be among the 12 teams left standing for a chance to win the national championship. Everyone loves the Cinderella story, but how (aside from the money that would go to the AAC and Sun Belt, respectively) is college football better for Group of Five teams getting sacrificed to a legit title contender from the Power Four?

Don’t say you’re picking the best teams when the Longhorns, who played a tougher schedule than any of the other current CFP candidates, appear to be disqualified from consideration solely based on accruing three losses.

Until the goalposts stop moving or the moment comes when the Big Ten and the SEC decide, by force, to dictate the terms of the CFP to the rest of college football (like it or not, it’s coming), we won’t get a field of the best teams deciding a national champion. We'll get whatever the committee decides it wants, criteria or guidelines be dammed.

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[Jeff Howe]

I wrote this especially for Joe Z!

[Jeff Howe]

In all seriousness, I wrote most of this this morning. Last night's rankings were when the country threw up its hands and decided that the CFP selection committee had completely missed the mark.

Whenever the Big Ten and SEC decide they've played nice for long enough, everyone outside of those two leagues can blame the committee for mucking up the process so badly that it had to be changed.

[Joe Zura]

2 minutes ago, Jeff Howe said:

I wrote this especially for Joe Z!

I didn’t even read this damn playoff post just came because it was yet another 🤬🤬🤬😭😭😭

[Jeff Howe]

I know how everyone on this board feels about Mike Elko, but he's 100 percent right on this topic. All we want is clarity and we're not getting it from the committee:

 

[HornsUpThumbsDown]

8 minutes ago, Jeff Howe said:

What Bruce Feldman said in one social media post encapsulated the growing angst toward the College Football Playoff Selection Committee.

Upon the release of the committee’s penultimate rankings on Tuesday, the path to a third consecutive trip to the CFP for No. 13 Texas is, for all intents and purposes, a dead end. To get into the 12-team field, the Longhorns need Texas Tech to win the Big 12, Georgia to notch a landslide revenge victory over Alabama in the SEC title game and then hope the committee values the body of work Texas has put together throughout one of the toughest 12-game schedules any Power Four team had to navigate (LSU is the only bowl-eligible team ranked above the Longhorns in ESPN’s strength of schedule metric, which says Steve Sarkisian’s team played the eighth-toughest schedule in the country).

That’s unlikely to happen because the committee, based on what committee chair Hunter Yurachek said on Tuesday’s post-reveal conference call with reporters, believes Texas’ 29-21 road loss to Florida on Oct. 4 is too big a blemish to overlook.

“You’re spot on,” the Arkansas athletic director said when he was asked if the loss to the Gators is “the thing hurting Texas the most.”

“The committee has a great deal of respect for Texas and they've played an incredible schedule,” he added. “They've got four teams they played in our top 10. They beat OU on a neutral field. They just beat Texas A&M at home this past weekend. They lost to No. 1, Ohio State, and lost to No. 3, Georgia.

“But one key stat this week in the teams ranked in our top 15, there's 17 total losses for those teams. Sixteen of those losses came against teams that are currently ranked or have been ranked in our top 25 this year. The only loss to an unranked team was Texas' loss to Florida at Florida, and really Florida dominated that game — held Texas to 50 yards rushing, two interceptions. So, it's not that Texas played Ohio State. It is Texas' loss to Florida that's holding them back now.”

We don’t need to read the tea leaves when the committee is shoving them down our throats. When it comes to Texas, the committee has decided that an objectively bad loss supercedes three wins over teams currently ranked in the committee’s top 15.

That would be understandable had Yurachek’s words and the committee's actions done anything other than validate Feldman’s rant. The committee ranks teams as it wants, then works backward to make it make sense.

How is Texas dinged for the Florida loss, but Alabama’s two-touchdown loss to a Florida State team that finished 5-7 after getting blown out by the Gators last Saturday doesn’t matter?

Head-to-head results appear to matter for Oklahoma and Alabama (No. 8 and No. 9, respectively) and Texas and Vanderbilt (the Longhorns passed the 10-2 Commodores in the rankings). That's the case for No. 12 Miami, which opened the season with a win over No. 10 Notre Dame.

Two weeks ago, Yuracheck said Oregon was still getting credit for a road win over Penn State. The same appears to apply to Oklahoma's road win over Tennessee and road wins over Missouri for Alabama and Texas A&M, the Aggies going into Baton Rouge and manhandling LSU and the Crimson Tide's Iron Bowl win over Auburn.

Still, Yuracheck said on Tuesday that Vanderbilt lacks a signature win because LSU, Missouri and Tennessee aren’t currently ranked by the committee, even though Josh Heupel’s team fell out of the rankings after the Commodores’ 45-24 rout of the Volunteers in Neyland Stadium.

The CFP selection process isn’t broken. It would’ve needed to be a well-oiled machine first, which was never the case. And although no system will ever be perfect, a transparent process that leaves more questions than answers isn't working.

Bill Hancock was the executive director of the CFP from its inception through last season, when he helped Rich Clark transition into the role. In 2023, when a late-season injury to quarterback Jordan Travis put Florida State’s CFP hopes in doubt, Hancock clarified the selection committee’s criteria for setting the then-four-team field.

“It is ‘best,’” Hancock said. “‘Most deserving’ is not anything in the committee's lexicon. They are to rank the best teams in order, and that's what they do. Just keep that word in mind, ‘best’ teams.”

Therein lies the problem.

Three wins over Associated Press top-five opponents and nine wins against one of the toughest schedules in the country should be a strong enough résumé for the Longhorns to be considered one of the seven best at-large teams. The committee clinging to the Florida loss to justify why Texas should be on the outside looking in is a prime example of how the selection process doesn't end with a bracket of the best teams.

Don’t say you’re picking the best teams when Miami’s head-to-head win over Notre Dame, as of now, doesn’t matter.

Don’t say you’re picking the best teams when Texas and Vanderbilt, both of whom went 6-2 in the toughest conference in the country, are likely headed to meaningless bowl games. At the same time, Sun Belt favorite James Madison and the winner of the AAC title game between North Texas and Tulane could be among the 12 teams left standing for a chance to win the national championship. Everyone loves the Cinderella story, but how (aside from the money that would go to the AAC and Sun Belt, respectively) is college football better for Group of Five teams getting sacrificed to a legit title contender from the Power Four?

Don’t say you’re picking the best teams when the Longhorns, who played a tougher schedule than any of the other current CFP candidates, appear to be disqualified from consideration solely based on accruing three losses.

Until the goalposts stop moving or the moment comes when the Big Ten and the SEC decide, by force, to dictate the terms of the CFP to the rest of college football (like it or not, it’s coming), we won’t get a field of the best teams deciding a national champion. We'll get whatever the committee decides it wants, criteria or guidelines be dammed.

 

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Good points, Texas has 3 losses, 1 worse than others puts them behind teams that don’t have 3 losses. Bama probably thought same thing last year. Good fuel to take care of Biz next year 

[Texas fan in Georgia]

The Big 10 and SEC absolutely need to come together over the offseason and put an end to this BS. The ACC, B12 and Notre dame, along with the G5 can establish their own postseason. I will never believe ND deserves an auto bid until they join a conference. When’s the last time they were competitive in a championship game ? Ohio st killed them, as did Alabama years ago. Anyways, Nick Saban needs to head a committee made up of retired coaches to decide the best teams. Why are we putting this in the hands of athletic directors who just scoreboard watch ?

[Texas fan in Georgia]

10 minutes ago, Jeff Howe said:

In all seriousness, I wrote most of this this morning. Last night's rankings were when the country threw up its hands and decided that the CFP selection committee had completely missed the mark.

Whenever the Big Ten and SEC decide they've played nice for long enough, everyone outside of those two leagues can blame the committee for mucking up the process so badly that it had to be changed.

Question on your last statement, say the two conferences do come together, how long can the NCAA put it off in court? I’d assume the other conferences would try to prevent the big boys from separating or am i wrong?

[Shmatt]

Not related at all but can the SEC please get better refs next year, I have never seen a team get hosed two times in a year by two dumb choices and logic in replays😭

[Jeff Howe]

3 minutes ago, Texas fan in Georgia said:

Question on your last statement, say the two conferences do come together, how long can the NCAA put it off in court? I’d assume the other conferences would try to prevent the big boys from separating or am i wrong?

I wasn't proposing separation. I meant the Big Ten and SEC will essentially dictate to the CFP what's happening regarding the expansion of the field, the selection process, etc.

[Kevin C]

I am a broken record on this topic but I strongly believe we are headed towards the Big 10 recommendation for 24 teams in the CFP where round 1 puts seeds 9-16 as hosts to seeds 17-24.   Winners play round two away at 1-8 seeds.

There will still be debate on seeding but far less potential for debating inclusion in the CFP.   It has become the end all be all goal to achieve/.  Conference Championship games eliminated.   December becomes a month of college football playoffs to go from 24 down to 8 teams by 12/31 - 1/1 quarterfinals.  
 

jmho.  Hook em!! 🤘🏼🐂🧡
 

[Thailand T Sip]

As I recall Texas was in the top 10 prior to the UGA loss. I'm pretty sure that the UF loss was on their CFP record at that point! Don't couldn't look at my grandkids & tell them the importance of achievement & integrity making comments like the committee throws out.

[antcan95]

One awful game from the center and left guard cost us the playoffs this year

[alrightalrightalright]

You captured a lot of what the fans are feeling, Jeff.

If the committee publishes principles, they need to follow those principles.

It’s bad enough they adjust their process on a weekly basis, but they will even shift it within the same weekly rankings.

 

[Danimal]

Following Hancock's logic, if Alabama played and lost to OSU and we played someone other than OSU and won - and everything else stayed the same - Alabama would still be in and we would still be out because all that matters is the Florida loss.

Do these morons not realize that we can see through their idiocy? Hancock and everyone that keeps saying "it's the Florida loss" should not be allowed to eat cold soup with a spoon because they are that dumb.

Strength of schedule or anything though provoking had nothing to do with the CFP decision. All they did was use their finger to count how many wins and losses and choose their favorite teams. Nothing else. 

Edited 1 hour ago by Danimal

[AusMOJO]

10 minutes ago, Danimal said:

Following Hancock's logic, if Alabama played and lost to OSU and we played someone other than OSU and won - and everything else stayed the same - Alabama would still be in and we would still be out because all that matters is the Florida loss.

Do these morons not realize that we can see through their idiocy? Hancock and everyone that keeps saying "it's the Florida loss" should not be allowed to eat cold soup with a spoon because they are that dumb.

Strength of schedule or anything though provoking had nothing to do with the CFP decision. All they did was use their finger to count how many wins and losses and choose their favorite teams. Nothing else. 

If the Florida loss mattered, are they saying even at 10-2 with wins over OU and A&M, that we'd still be on the outside looking in? Their argument makes no sense. If we're 10-2 with losses to Florida and Georgia, we're ranked where OU is. 

[Hornmatic]

Expansion was a huge mistake. 4 team playoff was perfect and bcs 1v2 is better than more than 4. 

[Alex Butler]

At this point let’s just expand the field to 32 and do away with conference championship games. Have the first 2 rounds at home then the last 3 on the road. Add another bye week for teams and let the chips fall where they may. Or adopt the same playoff structure the rest of the leagues below D-1a have been doing including high school. Let’s stop acting like D-1a is so exclusively different than other levels of football. The Miami ND thing is baffling to me how they can rank a team that far behind another with the same record and a head to head win is beyond me. When FSU got left out in 23 I thought it was wrong, even though I agree it wouldn’t have been as competitive a game against Michigan. Same with UGA in 23, Alabama last year, is this year, us in 2008, etc. There seems to be a willful disregard for logic and sense in major college football and it’s been broken for years. It’s so much better now, but you’re still considering G5 schools who have lost their coaches with a better shot to get in than a Texas or Miami. It’s absurd, absurd for the other teams in the playoffs that have to play real competition the first round, absurd for the schools left out, and absurd for the schools that are in. The G5 kids are the ones the worthless NCAA is referring to in their propaganda-mercials about “most of us go pro in something other than sports.” Stop feeds me dog poop 💩 and telling me it’s filet mignon. UGH, phew rant over

[Alex Butler]

27 minutes ago, Danimal said:

Following Hancock's logic, if Alabama played and lost to OSU and we played someone other than OSU and won - and everything else stayed the same - Alabama would still be in and we would still be out because all that matters is the Florida loss.

Do these morons not realize that we can see through their idiocy? Hancock and everyone that keeps saying "it's the Florida loss" should not be allowed to eat cold soup with a spoon because they are that dumb.

Strength of schedule or anything though provoking had nothing to do with the CFP decision. All they did was use their finger to count how many wins and losses and choose their favorite teams. Nothing else. 

Right so when bama loses to Georgia they’re out and we’re in right? Now it’s even and their losses are worse than ours. 

[Danimal]

12 minutes ago, AusMOJO said:

If the Florida loss mattered, are they saying even at 10-2 with wins over OU and A&M, that we'd still be on the outside looking in? Their argument makes no sense. If we're 10-2 with losses to Florida and Georgia, we're ranked where OU is. 

Based on the logic of his statement, yes. But if he was thinking logically, he wouldn't have stated that. 

What he really wants to say is Texas is out because they had 3 losses, which points to the real culprit: the OSU loss. But he can't say that because that would go against all of their stated criteria - that they don't follow. So he has to make this illogical statement to sound like they are actually evaluating things. But they aren't.

[Alex Butler]

3 minutes ago, Hornmatic said:

Expansion was a huge mistake. 4 team playoff was perfect and bcs 1v2 is better than more than 4. 

Get out of here with that. With that logic tOSU wouldn’t have won the natty last year and we’re asking computers and humans to get the top 2-4 right? Do you not remember 2008?

[LECHorns]

I haven’t seen this mentioned yet, but what’s the upside of playing the big OOC games?  Aggies went on the road and beat ND…and yet they fell below TT, Oregon and Ole Miss with the same record.  It’s really hard for me to see why Aggies should be any lower than #4.
 

Miami obviously is seeing no upside.

Is the rationale for OU being so far ahead of us their win over Michigan? Seems dumb, but they’re the only school seeing any benefit from scheduling these games.

[Chris Evans]

Also his fact is purely wrong. FSU was never ranked by the committee. Wish he would get called out.