OTF Premium Why this is a dangerous new era for a college football program

[Gerry Hamilton]

Just now, GDI said:

I doubt he would have even been offered given his HS background.  

Wasn't he kicked off the team and they let the team vote to let him back and they voted no?

Correct

[Jimmy Two Times]

What is your takeaway from this? If you look at the current roster, the following high school recruits are likely to be drafted from Texas: 

2023 Class

Arch Manning, Jelani McDonald, Trevor Goosby

2024 Class

Colin Simmons, Brandon Baker, Ryan Wingo, Zina Umeozulu (debatable), Alex January, Tyanthony Smith

2025 Class

Too early to say, but Littleton, Jackson and Phillips seem like locks. The DL/OL will probably have one or two. 

Then you supplement with sure fire upperclassman transfers like Cam Coleman, Smothers, Pitt LB who will also be drafted. So, the end result seems like we'll have a similar number of draft picks and thus a similar level of talent. Just getting to it in a different way. In other words, under the current regime you might see Jahdae Barron and Byron Murphy types transfer in as juniors, but the result is somewhat similar. 

[AZ Longhorn]

@Gerry Hamilton would love your take on this 

Devil's advocate thesis: the portal is dangerous for a lot of programs. But for Texas, with a proven commitment to spending top 5 resources in the market, the portal's radical liquidity (and entailed better information) is the absolute best thing that could have happened to us. 

Background: Markets are most efficient with the most information and the most ability to change course based on that information. Bad information and low liquidity creates losers out of most... but also, big winners for those who can "divine" the future before others see it and/or can act on it.

Example in College Football (proof of concept): Taking advantage of these dynamics is exactly how Cignetti has pulled off the biggest turnaround in coaching history, dominating at a place without the resources of Texas (or Ohio St, or Oregon, or...): (1) he is a preternatural evaluator of talent who sees the "information" before others do, and (2) unlike previous "golden eyes for talent", he happened to exist at the dawn of a new system where he could combine that information advantage with the liquidity of the portal (while the "big fish" like UGA and UT were slow to adapt).

Outlook: The coming (present?) reality of a Majors / AAA / AA etc. system — where each year maybe up to half (who knows?) of all college football players are moving up/down levels, or to better fits within their level — provides such better information to the "Majors" programs. Instead of the Majors having to evaluate and project a guy out of HS, they can pass that risk (bad information) on the farm system. This lessens the information gap that used to exist between genius evaluators (Cignetti) and the conventional evaluators at the "big fish" programs. And the portal combined with one-year contracts gives everyone the liquidity to act on that new and better information every. single. year! 

How this applies to Texas, a "big fish": Ironically, the same system that enabled Cignetti's unprecedented rise is going to just as quickly allow the "big fish" to overtake Indiana (unless the system changes or Mark Cuban ponies up to fund Indiana at the level of the top 5 NIL programs). Texas' information (evaluation) disadvantage against a Cignetti will be greatly decreased, the portal provides the liquidity to act on that ever-changing information on a yearly basis, and our "big fish" bags dominate acquisition in a market for talent that is less mysterious than ever before. 

Conclusion: This new reality tilts the scales, unequivocally, to the schools who have the biggest NIL funds. Texas should be among the 5 happiest programs for this new era.