OTF Premium Why this is a dangerous new era for a college football program

[Gerry Hamilton]

Just now, GDI said:

I doubt he would have even been offered given his HS background.  

Wasn't he kicked off the team and they let the team vote to let him back and they voted no?

Correct

[Jimmy Two Times]

What is your takeaway from this? If you look at the current roster, the following high school recruits are likely to be drafted from Texas: 

2023 Class

Arch Manning, Jelani McDonald, Trevor Goosby

2024 Class

Colin Simmons, Brandon Baker, Ryan Wingo, Zina Umeozulu (debatable), Alex January, Tyanthony Smith

2025 Class

Too early to say, but Littleton, Jackson and Phillips seem like locks. The DL/OL will probably have one or two. 

Then you supplement with sure fire upperclassman transfers like Cam Coleman, Smothers, Pitt LB who will also be drafted. So, the end result seems like we'll have a similar number of draft picks and thus a similar level of talent. Just getting to it in a different way. In other words, under the current regime you might see Jahdae Barron and Byron Murphy types transfer in as juniors, but the result is somewhat similar. 

[AZ Longhorn]

@Gerry Hamilton would love your take on this 

Devil's advocate thesis: the portal is dangerous for a lot of programs. But for Texas, with a proven commitment to spending top 5 resources in the market, the portal's radical liquidity (and entailed better information) is the absolute best thing that could have happened to us. 

Background: Markets are most efficient with the most information and the most ability to change course based on that information. Bad information and low liquidity creates losers out of most... but also, big winners for those who can "divine" the future before others see it and/or can act on it.

Example in College Football (proof of concept): Taking advantage of these dynamics is exactly how Cignetti has pulled off the biggest turnaround in coaching history, dominating at a place without the resources of Texas (or Ohio St, or Oregon, or...): (1) he is a preternatural evaluator of talent who sees the "information" before others do, and (2) unlike previous "golden eyes for talent", he happened to exist at the dawn of a new system where he could combine that information advantage with the liquidity of the portal (while the "big fish" like UGA and UT were slow to adapt).

Outlook: The coming (present?) reality of a Majors / AAA / AA etc. system — where each year maybe up to half (who knows?) of all college football players are moving up/down levels, or to better fits within their level — provides such better information to the "Majors" programs. Instead of the Majors having to evaluate and project a guy out of HS, they can pass that risk (bad information) on the farm system. This lessens the information gap that used to exist between genius evaluators (Cignetti) and the conventional evaluators at the "big fish" programs. And the portal combined with one-year contracts gives everyone the liquidity to act on that new and better information every. single. year! 

How this applies to Texas, a "big fish": Ironically, the same system that enabled Cignetti's unprecedented rise is going to just as quickly allow the "big fish" to overtake Indiana (unless the system changes or Mark Cuban ponies up to fund Indiana at the level of the top 5 NIL programs). Texas' information (evaluation) disadvantage against a Cignetti will be greatly decreased, the portal provides the liquidity to act on that ever-changing information on a yearly basis, and our "big fish" bags dominate acquisition in a market for talent that is less mysterious than ever before. 

Conclusion: This new reality tilts the scales, unequivocally, to the schools who have the biggest NIL funds. Texas should be among the 5 happiest programs for this new era. 

[Gerry Hamilton]

1 hour ago, Jimmy Two Times said:

What is your takeaway from this? If you look at the current roster, the following high school recruits are likely to be drafted from Texas: 

2023 Class

Arch Manning, Jelani McDonald, Trevor Goosby

2024 Class

Colin Simmons, Brandon Baker, Ryan Wingo, Zina Umeozulu (debatable), Alex January, Tyanthony Smith

2025 Class

Too early to say, but Littleton, Jackson and Phillips seem like locks. The DL/OL will probably have one or two. 

Then you supplement with sure fire upperclassman transfers like Cam Coleman, Smothers, Pitt LB who will also be drafted. So, the end result seems like we'll have a similar number of draft picks and thus a similar level of talent. Just getting to it in a different way. In other words, under the current regime you might see Jahdae Barron and Byron Murphy types transfer in as juniors, but the result is somewhat similar. 

Problem is some of the best players to come through the program in the last 20 years wouldn’t have happened 

[Battrayal]

3 hours ago, Bunk Moreland said:

Not sure if this is tongue in cheek, but I actually think it’s correct. For every Vernon Broughton Texas opts not to retain, there will be a Jalen Walker available in the portal. For every Jaydon Blue, there’s a Raleek Brown. You potentially miss on high-impact, NFL draft pick type players that you’re not willing to wait on, but you can potentially substitute in future NFL first-rounders in their place. Not saying one way is better than the other, and not many schools can do it the second way like Texas can. But that’s why it’s good to be the king.

yeah exactly. its a simple math problem/zero sum game. We are just in a wild time where the new reality is coming to fruition.

with teams paying proven potential, all that will happen is that the development guys will get cheaper until they are proven and then move up the ranks... nothing will change other than where players develop.

Not every year will have 25 players leave because the rosters are getting smaller. out of a 20 man class (10 insta contributers that are expensive/10 development cheaper guys), maybe 3-5 of the big money recruits you bring in that dont pan out will get their offers pulled and then 3-5 development guys who are in that no mans land of too expensive to not play but not cheap enough to be in a development role. Then those 6-10 will be replaced with proven guys in the portal.

It just feels weird rn cause we are in a transition period

[Battrayal]

8 minutes ago, Gerry Hamilton said:

Problem is some of the best players to come through the program in the last 20 years wouldn’t have happened 

wouldnt've happened exactly how they did. but they still could have come through the program when they were ready to finally play. or they coulda been part of the lower end of a class who have the expectation to develop and are paid accordingly.

[Paul Jespersen]

10 minutes ago, Gerry Hamilton said:

Problem is some of the best players to come through the program in the last 20 years wouldn’t have happened 

Or wouldn't have happened in the same way.... 
Maybe they start a year or two somewhere else, but then portal in for last year or 2...
But agree, the raw gem, program developed guys are going to dwindle...

Could make early recruiting even more important though, as that kid that goes somewhere else year 1 and 2, may be more inclined to portal in if given some attention / love / familiarity with Texas up front...

Definitely a new world, upending decades of models of how to build a program...

🤘
 

[Paul Jespersen]

3 minutes ago, Battrayal said:

wouldnt've happened exactly how they did. but they still could have come through the program when they were ready to finally play. or they coulda been part of the lower end of a class who have the expectation to develop and are paid accordingly.

ha literally posted same thing at virtually same time... dead on.

🤘

[randolurker]

Is it possible this benefits the programs like utsa or even down to texas state or la tech.They become almost like double a or triple a.

[bourbasted]

Not necessarily dangerous imho, but definitely different.  IF we continue to produce similar numbers into the NFL, it's a bit of a moot point.  When and where we get the NFL prospects (HS, Portal, grad transfer, etc) from isn't as important as getting them.  Texas is well-positioned in this era and (to date) seem to be operating well in the environment.

[ElCafetero]

Still wish we developed and retained these guys

[Thorn007]

riley never has a D

 

Edited 16 hours ago by Thorn007
bad

[Sasquatch3027]

Sam Cosmi probably never goes to Texas in the portal era. 

Edited 16 hours ago by Sasquatch3027

[Gerry Hamilton]

2 hours ago, Battrayal said:

wouldnt've happened exactly how they did. but they still could have come through the program when they were ready to finally play. or they coulda been part of the lower end of a class who have the expectation to develop and are paid accordingly.

Less than 50-50 that actually ends up correct. Maybe a couple.

Byron Murphy would have always been too short or small for Texas in SEC... even though he would kick everyones ass.

Texas would have passed out of high school on Thorpe and Outland Winners. That developed in your program, so the award is truly meaningful. 

 

 

[ChanmanV]

Should add Roschon to that list as well. The days of feel good development/loyalty stories are gone. Another good talking point would be the diminishing value culture has in regards to retention. If 30-40% of the roster is replaced every year, will Sark's team culture be cohesive enough in time to avoid 3 losses each season.

[thatdude2]

5 hours ago, freerobertshmurder said:

This just makes me sad. Part of the magic of college football was being able to see guys like Jahdae and T. Sweat, relatively low-rated prospects without high expectations, develop and grow from depth pieces into starters and eventually into the best football players in the entire country. Even though it makes sense for Texas to only go after high blue chip prospects out of HS and productive, talented players out of the portal, losing that aspect of players coming out of nowhere to become superstars for you is gonna suck

But a lot didn’t want the coach that originally recruited them to continue to develop at Texas as a head coach. It wasn’t fun for Herman that those guys weren’t ready earlier in their tenure.

[thatdude2]

42 minutes ago, Gerry Hamilton said:

Less than 50-50 that actually ends up correct. Maybe a couple.

Byron Murphy would have always been too short or small for Texas in SEC... even though he would kick everyones ass.

Texas would have passed out of high school on Thorpe and Outland Winners. That developed in your program, so the award is truly meaningful. 

 

 

How many 6’0 275 guys you want?

[Gerry Hamilton]

3 hours ago, AZ Longhorn said:

@Gerry Hamilton would love your take on this 

Devil's advocate thesis: the portal is dangerous for a lot of programs. But for Texas, with a proven commitment to spending top 5 resources in the market, the portal's radical liquidity (and entailed better information) is the absolute best thing that could have happened to us. 

Background: Markets are most efficient with the most information and the most ability to change course based on that information. Bad information and low liquidity creates losers out of most... but also, big winners for those who can "divine" the future before others see it and/or can act on it.

Example in College Football (proof of concept): Taking advantage of these dynamics is exactly how Cignetti has pulled off the biggest turnaround in coaching history, dominating at a place without the resources of Texas (or Ohio St, or Oregon, or...): (1) he is a preternatural evaluator of talent who sees the "information" before others do, and (2) unlike previous "golden eyes for talent", he happened to exist at the dawn of a new system where he could combine that information advantage with the liquidity of the portal (while the "big fish" like UGA and UT were slow to adapt).

Outlook: The coming (present?) reality of a Majors / AAA / AA etc. system — where each year maybe up to half (who knows?) of all college football players are moving up/down levels, or to better fits within their level — provides such better information to the "Majors" programs. Instead of the Majors having to evaluate and project a guy out of HS, they can pass that risk (bad information) on the farm system. This lessens the information gap that used to exist between genius evaluators (Cignetti) and the conventional evaluators at the "big fish" programs. And the portal combined with one-year contracts gives everyone the liquidity to act on that new and better information every. single. year! 

How this applies to Texas, a "big fish": Ironically, the same system that enabled Cignetti's unprecedented rise is going to just as quickly allow the "big fish" to overtake Indiana (unless the system changes or Mark Cuban ponies up to fund Indiana at the level of the top 5 NIL programs). Texas' information (evaluation) disadvantage against a Cignetti will be greatly decreased, the portal provides the liquidity to act on that ever-changing information on a yearly basis, and our "big fish" bags dominate acquisition in a market for talent that is less mysterious than ever before. 

Conclusion: This new reality tilts the scales, unequivocally, to the schools who have the biggest NIL funds. Texas should be among the 5 happiest programs for this new era. 

Cignetti will never be the norm. He doesn't apply to coaches at power programs who have proven to not be as good at him, No. 1. He was a coaching hire by Indiana and brought many players and coaches with him. He began with continuity, and then build off it very well. He also didn't get into money whip recruitments as you pointed out.

Then there is closer to the median, which is Miami. 25 of 44 in the two-deep are HS/JUCO recruits by the staff. 9 of 10 OL's were recruited and developed by the staff (C James Brockermyer only transfer). Rueben Bain (6 of top 8 DL's were HS recruits), Mark Fletcher, Toney, OL's, etc...

Georgia continues to be the dominant SEC program, and they are 85+% HS/JUCO recruits. They have true toughness and development in their program. 

I personally don't think there is just one way to get it done or be a top program that has the chance to compete on an annual basis. Coaching change that results in quick success can't be looked as the end all for every program (the quick success) because more coaching changes than not by a big margin won't end like Indiana. 

 

 

[Gerry Hamilton]

5 minutes ago, thatdude2 said:

How many 6’0 275 guys you want?

Indiana has two of those type guys starting on their DL. One 6-1, 265-270, and the other 6-0 and 300 

If a player is good, they are good. 

 

 

[Lewis817]

3 hours ago, Gerry Hamilton said:

Problem is some of the best players to come through the program in the last 20 years wouldn’t have happened 

Also that's the magic of College Football watching these kids grow up to become superstars under your guidance when it wasn't expected sad state of affairs honestly. 

[thatdude2]

7 minutes ago, Gerry Hamilton said:

Indiana has two of those type guys starting on their DL. One 6-1, 265-270, and the other 6-0 and 300 

If a player is good, they are good. 

 

 

They recruited out of high school or got them from the portal? I’m asking how many 6’0 270 lb lineman are you getting in each high school class hoping they turn into Byron Murphy. I don’t think there are that many Murphys out there.

[Flynn]

College football doesn’t exist anymore. It’s a yearly minor league contract.

[Battrayal]

13 hours ago, Gerry Hamilton said:

Less than 50-50 that actually ends up correct. Maybe a couple.

Byron Murphy would have always been too short or small for Texas in SEC... even though he would kick everyones ass.

Texas would have passed out of high school on Thorpe and Outland Winners. That developed in your program, so the award is truly meaningful. 

 

 

Yeah I totally get the sentiment. I hate that college football is losing part of its fabric that makes it so special, which totally sucks.

my only point is that I trust that Texas will put the same level of talent on the field as before. So ideally same number of Thorpes and awards. The guys just won’t as often be homegrown 3-4 year dudes, which totally sucks since it’s special to have guys like that who bleed burnt orange

[Leveller]

Great topic.  Does J.T. Sanders start and breakout in 2023?  I bet the answer is likely not.  

[Jordan91]

The best basketball example I can give is Jason Klotz. He redshirted and by his fifth year, he was arguably the best player on the team. There is only so much money, you can give a player that wants to develop. Going into his sophomore year, it’s do I take more money to go to a bad team and play right away, or do I take a second year to see where I am at?  This is where the player has to trust that will not be could recruited over.  That’s a big risk to take. If the player is recruited over then he just a year, and his NIL will be lower versus leaving after the first year.