The Claim This Morning that the Offense is "Just Average"

[AustinsTruth]

Besides being false on its face to anybody who has neurons firing in their brain, let's look at the actual offensive rankings this season so far. 

Total offense: 80th,  364.8 Yds/Game 364.8.....(Top 42% of FBS)

Scoring offense: 59th 31.4 points/game....(Bottom 42% of FBS)

Rushing offense: 88th, 141.6 yards/game....(Bottom 63% of FBS)

Passing offense: 63rd, 223.2 yards/game....(Bottom 46% of FBS)

These are out of 138 teams...So if you want to say the offense is better than exactly half of the country, they almost are. I would say that given the players (and the money), that isn't just not meeting expectations. That is not playing "average" that is terrible. For everything except yards per game, they are below average nationally. It gets worse for their place in the SEC: 

By SEC Rank: 

Total offense: 11th...(Bottom 68% of SEC)

Scoring offense: 11th....(Bottom 68.8% of SEC)

Passing yards/game: 9th....(Bottom 56% of SEC)

Rushing yards/game: 11th....(Bottom 68% of SEC)

 

So, they are almost average nationally, and are significantly below average in the SEC. Fans react to what their eyes tell them, and their eyes aren't saying "wow that isn't what we expected." Their eyes are telling them "wow, this is terrible."

[Rockin TL]

Texas Offensive FEI is currently 27th, SP+ has it at 16th in terms of advance metrics for offenses adjusted to opponents. Neither of those numbers are good relative to talent. 

3rd Down % - 44.59% ranks 46th nationally.

Red Zone TD % - 66.67% ranks 51st nationally.

Red Zone Scoring % - 66.67 ranks 41st nationally.

[4thandFive]

This offense is painful to watch. Like, I haven’t been as depressed with this team since the Charlie Strong era as I was last Saturday.

[smokeymcbevo]

We have likely played 3 of the top 5 defensive coaches in CFB over the first 5 games and managed to put up 20+ offensive points on each. The stats should improve from here. 

[Grant Ward]

It's bad.  This will change when the people who dish out the money get tired of it.

[CJ Vogel]

Seeing Matt Patricia, Jim Knowles and Brent Venables in three of five weeks will make life difficult for anyone.

However, I did not expect to see this level of struggle given the talent and experience.

[AustinsTruth]

22 minutes ago, smokeymcbevo said:

We have likely played 3 of the top 5 defensive coaches in CFB over the first 5 games and managed to put up 20+ offensive points on each. The stats should improve from here. 

Against Ohio State: We scored 5 points more than Illinois did (blowout, not true comparison), and 10 points more than IOWA did. 

Against Tennessee: We scored 6 more points than Auburn, 3 more than Arkansas did, and 4 points less than Georgia Tech did. 

Against OU: We scored 7 more than MICHIGAN did (while giving up 14 on Offense/ST combo) and scored 18 more than New Mexico...Again, while giving them the game on offense/ST combined. 

And in the game against the DAUNTING UTSA defense: Scored 4 more than Texas State did, 15 less than Colorado State did, 16 more than Rice did, and 6 more than South Florida did...Colorado State, Texas State, and South Florida all put up those numbers on the road, while we were at home. 

 

Congrats, but you are gonna have to beat multiple good defenses to achieve anything close to what the goals are. 

Edited 6 hours ago by AustinsTruth

[westx]

1 hour ago, AustinsTruth said:

Besides being false on its face to anybody who has neurons firing in their brain, let's look at the actual offensive rankings this season so far. 

Total offense: 80th,  364.8 Yds/Game 364.8.....(Top 42% of FBS)

Scoring offense: 59th 31.4 points/game....(Bottom 42% of FBS)

Rushing offense: 88th, 141.6 yards/game....(Bottom 63% of FBS)

Passing offense: 63rd, 223.2 yards/game....(Bottom 46% of FBS)

These are out of 138 teams...So if you want to say the offense is better than exactly half of the country, they almost are. I would say that given the players (and the money), that isn't just not meeting expectations. That is not playing "average" that is terrible. For everything except yards per game, they are below average nationally. It gets worse for their place in the SEC: 

By SEC Rank: 

Total offense: 11th...(Bottom 68% of SEC)

Scoring offense: 11th....(Bottom 68.8% of SEC)

Passing yards/game: 9th....(Bottom 56% of SEC)

Rushing yards/game: 11th....(Bottom 68% of SEC)

 

So, they are almost average nationally, and are significantly below average in the SEC. Fans react to what their eyes tell them, and their eyes aren't saying "wow that isn't what we expected." Their eyes are telling them "wow, this is terrible."

100%.  What I get tired of hearing is we had to play the top 3 defensive minds.  But, we all see the issue that every DC knows how to defend Sark’s offense.  Blitz and overload the front.  The defenders can get to the QB before any receiver even turns back to look for the ball. 

[Red Five]

There was "Most talented offense since 2005?" talk in the offseason. I know we've played some tough defenses but what we're seeing is inexcusable. 

[Lnghrn]

1 hour ago, AustinsTruth said:

Besides being false on its face to anybody who has neurons firing in their brain, let's look at the actual offensive rankings this season so far. 

Total offense: 80th,  364.8 Yds/Game 364.8.....(Top 42% of FBS)

Scoring offense: 59th 31.4 points/game....(Bottom 42% of FBS)

Rushing offense: 88th, 141.6 yards/game....(Bottom 63% of FBS)

Passing offense: 63rd, 223.2 yards/game....(Bottom 46% of FBS)

These are out of 138 teams...So if you want to say the offense is better than exactly half of the country, they almost are. I would say that given the players (and the money), that isn't just not meeting expectations. That is not playing "average" that is terrible. For everything except yards per game, they are below average nationally. It gets worse for their place in the SEC: 

By SEC Rank: 

Total offense: 11th...(Bottom 68% of SEC)

Scoring offense: 11th....(Bottom 68.8% of SEC)

Passing yards/game: 9th....(Bottom 56% of SEC)

Rushing yards/game: 11th....(Bottom 68% of SEC)

 

So, they are almost average nationally, and are significantly below average in the SEC. Fans react to what their eyes tell them, and their eyes aren't saying "wow that isn't what we expected." Their eyes are telling them "wow, this is terrible."

I think you have to look at several factors.  
 

First the strength of p4 defenses you play greatly impacts your offense production. We’ve faced 3 -p4 defenses and all rank pretty high.  Ohio state ranks in the top 5, OU ranks in the top 15 and Tenn is around top 25 (off the top of my head).   Second, you have to look ant the quality of the non-p4 competition. Even if you look at our non P4 competition in UTSA and Tx St they are better teams than most of what the other P4 teams face.  We had 380 yards vs a then top 10 OU defense.  Georgia has a top 30ish ranked offense but most of those points came vs very weak non-conference opponents.  Georgia has 303 yards against OU, while we had 380.  It’s one data point but it illustrates how some of the teams weak schedules can really influence their team statistical rankings midway through the season.  
 

Top 10 defenses generally win out over top offenses.  We held Ohio State  (top 5 ranked offense) to around 300 yards of offense.  Besides Texas, Ohio State’s offense has faced very weak defenses, other than maybe Iowa.   

[AustinsTruth]

54 minutes ago, Lnghrn said:

I think you have to look at several factors.  
 

First the strength of p4 defenses you play greatly impacts your offense production. We’ve faced 3 -p4 defenses and all rank pretty high.  Ohio state ranks in the top 5, OU ranks in the top 15 and Tenn is around top 25 (off the top of my head).   Second, you have to look ant the quality of the non-p4 competition. Even if you look at our non P4 competition in UTSA and Tx St they are better teams than most of what the other P4 teams face.  We had 380 yards vs a then top 10 OU defense.  Georgia has a top 30ish ranked offense but most of those points came vs very weak non-conference opponents.  Georgia has 303 yards against OU, while we had 380.  It’s one data point but it illustrates how some of the teams weak schedules can really influence their team statistical rankings midway through the season.  
 

Top 10 defenses generally win out over top offenses.  We held Ohio State  (top 5 ranked offense) to around 300 yards of offense.  Besides Texas, Ohio State’s offense has faced very weak defenses, other than maybe Iowa.   

See my breakdown against each opponent.

[Beard N Balls Bundle]

How can we have this much talent and be this inept? It's truly baffling

[MBHORNSFAN]

2 hours ago, 4thandFive said:

This offense is painful to watch. Like, I haven’t been as depressed with this team since the Charlie Strong era as I was last Saturday.

 

Strong struggled to win 5 games and was blowout by multiple teams regularly. Sark has us in a position to win every game and compete at the highest level. Are there issues? Absolutely. But those two could not be more different.   People better be careful what they ask for. We are ine Strong type hire away from being trash again. 

Edited 4 hours ago by MBHORNSFAN

[4thandFive]

39 minutes ago, MBHORNSFAN said:

 

Strong struggled to win 5 games and was blowout by multiple teams regularly. Sark has us in a position to win every game and compete at the highest level. Are there issues? Absolutely. But those two could not be more different.   People better be careful what they ask for. We are ine Strong type hire away from being trash again. 

I’m just saying it’s been that long since I’ve been this disillusioned with the product in the field. Saturday in Dallas was abysmal on multiple levels and I was more dejected than mad.

[Bobby Burton]

1 hour ago, Beard N Balls Bundle said:

How can we have this much talent and be this inept? It's truly baffling

Inept is Marcel Reed. Texas has not stooped to that level of ineptitude.

[Bobby Burton]

55 minutes ago, MBHORNSFAN said:

 

Strong struggled to win 5 games and was blowout by multiple teams regularly. Sark has us in a position to win every game and compete at the highest level. Are there issues? Absolutely. But those two could not be more different.   People better be careful what they ask for. We are ine Strong type hire away from being trash again. 

Like I said this morning...

You can give Sark an A+, A or A- as an HC and a C+, C or C- as an OC.

He's performing two different jobs so giving him two different grades is appropriate IMO.

[Bobby Burton]

3 hours ago, AustinsTruth said:

Besides being false on its face to anybody who has neurons firing in their brain, let's look at the actual offensive rankings this season so far. 

Total offense: 80th,  364.8 Yds/Game 364.8.....(Top 42% of FBS)

Scoring offense: 59th 31.4 points/game....(Bottom 42% of FBS)

Rushing offense: 88th, 141.6 yards/game....(Bottom 63% of FBS)

Passing offense: 63rd, 223.2 yards/game....(Bottom 46% of FBS)

These are out of 138 teams...So if you want to say the offense is better than exactly half of the country, they almost are. I would say that given the players (and the money), that isn't just not meeting expectations. That is not playing "average" that is terrible. For everything except yards per game, they are below average nationally. It gets worse for their place in the SEC: 

By SEC Rank: 

Total offense: 11th...(Bottom 68% of SEC)

Scoring offense: 11th....(Bottom 68.8% of SEC)

Passing yards/game: 9th....(Bottom 56% of SEC)

Rushing yards/game: 11th....(Bottom 68% of SEC)

 

So, they are almost average nationally, and are significantly below average in the SEC. Fans react to what their eyes tell them, and their eyes aren't saying "wow that isn't what we expected." Their eyes are telling them "wow, this is terrible."

Nice work, OP.

[MBHORNSFAN]

23 minutes ago, Bobby Burton said:

Like I said this morning...

You can give Sark an A+, A or A- as an HC and a C+, C or C- as an OC.

He's performing two different jobs so giving him two different grades is appropriate IMO.

 

I agree. 

[J Treehorn]

It's not just that 'we've played tough defenses'. Our average opposing defense is on another plant compared to the rest of the P4. Offense is definitely disappointing, but this data is pretty wild. Unfortunately the brightest minds in defense have now crafted a blueprint on how to stop Texas.

[AustinsTruth]

42 minutes ago, J Treehorn said:

It's not just that 'we've played tough defenses'. Our average opposing defense is on another plant compared to the rest of the P4. Offense is definitely disappointing, but this data is pretty wild. Unfortunately the brightest minds in defense have now crafted a blueprint on how to stop Texas.

If it was that the defenses looked good it'd be one thing. I think people are more upset that we run directly into 6-7 man boxes despite it being obvious that the numbers don't work. Or have pass plays that take 4.5 seconds to develop on obvious 6-7 man pressures.

Can't do the easy/obvious things right currently. (As evidenced by UTSA game)

[NothinButDaHorns34]

We’re gonna see (or should see) an uptick of scoring against our next three opponents because of their crappy defenses, But the ultimate test is going to be LSU. Robertson can’t anchor and they’ve got a war daddy at defensive tackle. Our passing game is inept and they seem to have legit dudes at defensive back. 

[THookem]

What would Augie say?