Moderators Gerry Hamilton Posted February 16 Moderators Share Posted February 16 What does Texas have to do to make the NCAA Tournament? The Texas Longhorns will travel to Houston today to take on the No. 3 Cougars at noon Saturday on CBS. Texas (16-8, 5-6) has a strong NCAA Resume currently, but still has work in front of them to punch the ticket. OnTexasFootball takes a look ahead, and the scenarios for Texas to be comfortably in the tourney. Texas’ Remaining Schedule 2/17 @ No. 3 Houston 2/19 Kansas State 2/24 @ No. 6 Kansas 2/27 @ Texas Tech 3/2 Oklahoma State 3/4 @ No. 12 Baylor 3/9 No. 25 Oklahoma NCAA Men’s Basketball NET Rankings (Feb. 15) Texas is No. 31 in NCAA NET headed into Saturday’s games. The Longhorns are 4-6 in Quad 1 games, 1-1 vs. Quad 2, 3-1 vs. Quad 3 and 8-0 vs. Quad 4. Quad 1 games remaining for the Longhorns: No. 1 @ Houston No. 17 @ Kansas No. 26 @ Texas Tech No. 12 @ Baylor Quad 2 game remaining: No. 33 Oklahoma Quad 3 games remaining: No. 77 Kansas State No. 137 Oklahoma State T-Rank Texas is No. 22 in Bart Torvik’s rankings headed into Saturday. 2024 Pomeroy College Basketball Ratings Texas checks in at No. 25 headed into college games this weekend. What it means for Texas The Longhorns are comfortably in the NCAA Tournament headed into the weekend. That resume is aided by Quad 1 wins at Oklahoma, and over Baylor and TCU in Big 12 play. While Strength of Schedule as a whole may not carry as much weight as it used to, the Longhorns have played a top 30 ranked schedule and will likely end up with a scheduled ranked from 20-30 area. Most years, a sub .500 conference record would not get you into the Field of 68. With the monster level Big 12 Conference in 2023-24, Texas would get in at 8-10. Sitting at 5-6 with four Quad 1 road games remaining, 8-10 may be the best case scenario. Texas and seeding: Scenario 1: 19-12, 8-10 is likely a 9-10 seed headed into Big 12 Tournament Scenario 2: 20-11, 9-9 would likely be a 7 seed headed into Big 12 Tournament Scenario 3: 18-13, 7-11 would likely send the Horns to the NIT without a run in the Big 12 Tournament. Right now, I do not see a scenario where Texas is 21-10, 10-8 to finish the regular season. That would mean winning five of last seven vs. a very difficult closing stretch of the schedule. Texas has not shown that consistent type of stretch this season over talent neutralized stretches. View full news 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators Gerry Hamilton Posted February 16 Author Moderators Share Posted February 16 Texas No. 21 in ESPN BPI https://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/bpi 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators Gerry Hamilton Posted February 16 Author Moderators Share Posted February 16 Texas No. 25 in Ken Pomeroy rankings https://kenpom.com/ 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators Gerry Hamilton Posted February 16 Author Moderators Share Posted February 16 Texas No. 31 in NCAA NET https://www.ncaa.com/rankings/basketball-men/d1/ncaa-mens-basketball-net-rankings Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HookemHorns Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Agree that 8-10 in the big 12 is the most likely outcome. With the way this season has played out I’m “expecting” an unexpected win and expecting an unexpected loss. Probably some nice drama along the way. Seems to the Horns way this year. Ultimately I think we punch our ticket to the dance 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators CJ Vogel Posted February 16 Moderators Share Posted February 16 A seven seed in the tournament would be quite the achievement considering where the trajectory of this team was headed just over a month ago. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators Gerry Hamilton Posted February 16 Author Moderators Share Posted February 16 1 minute ago, HookemHorns said: Agree that 8-10 in the big 12 is the most likely outcome. With the way this season has played out I’m “expecting” an unexpected win and expecting an unexpected loss. Probably some nice drama along the way. Seems to the Horns way this year. Ultimately I think we punch our ticket to the dance I too think Texas finishes 8-10, and gets in ... and not in the play in game. One thing that could push Texas to 9-9 is if they get to play a Quad 1 team on road with an opponent having a key player out due to injury. Look at Kansas at Texas Tech this week. McCullar is not going to be 100% the rest of the season. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HookemHorns Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 3 minutes ago, Gerry Hamilton said: I too think Texas finishes 8-10, and gets in ... and not in the play in game. One thing that could push Texas to 9-9 is if they get to play a Quad 1 team on road with an opponent having a key player out due to injury. Look at Kansas at Texas Tech this week. McCullar is not going to be 100% the rest of the season. And just generally improved play by the Horns as they continue to gel and work out their best lineups. Hat tip to RT, they’ve come a long ways in the last month or so. WV home game showed the ceiling. Let’s hope they keep hitting it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators Gerry Hamilton Posted February 16 Author Moderators Share Posted February 16 1 minute ago, HookemHorns said: And just generally improved play by the Horns as they continue to gel and work out their best lineups. Hat tip to RT, they’ve come a long ways in the last month or so. WV home game showed the ceiling. Let’s hope they keep hitting it. If Texas continues to play through Abmas and Disu on offense, and Mitchell and Hunter play off those two guys without forcing into bad situations off the bounce too much ... Texas can definitely hit the 75 point mark needed in talent neutralized situations (road or neutral). On defense, Disu and Weaver staying out of foul trouble is the key IMO. We pretty much know who and what this team is, but now they have to maximize it as many times as possible the next month. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HookemHorns Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 10 minutes ago, Gerry Hamilton said: If Texas continues to play through Abmas and Disu on offense, and Mitchell and Hunter play off those two guys without forcing into bad situations off the bounce too much ... Texas can definitely hit the 75 point mark needed in talent neutralized situations (road or neutral). On defense, Disu and Weaver staying out of foul trouble is the key IMO. We pretty much know who and what this team is, but now they have to maximize it as many times as possible the next month. Good stuff. Have missed your basketball content. I’ve learned to trust your eye. Here’s hoping you get to breakdown a March madness matchup or three Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TexasMDcoach Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 This team has just not come together with any consistency at all which is why I think we are still a bubble team. Are we on the verge of becoming a good team? We need Disu and Abmas to continue to lead the team and need to get some production from our other guard position which has been woeful at times and Mitchell to attack the basket. I like the insertion of Weaver into the line up and along with Mitchell we are seeing more effort of late which is good. Bottom line is we need every guy to pick it up and carry his weight. If they do that we can be a good team. The next couple of games will tell the story imo. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pocono longhorn Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 They sure do miss Sir Jabari or a player like him. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goathumper Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Winning the rest of the home games would be great Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goathumper Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 12 minutes ago, Pocono longhorn said: They sure do miss Sir Jabari or a player like him. If Tyrese Hunter were a good player, this team would be a lot different 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hookem1 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 One thing I think it’s important to remember is what transpired with the late attrition of the 2023 recruiting class. This year’s roster looks A LOT different with Holland and Johnson. I think Terry did an okay job piecing the roster together this year but it’s hard with the timing of when the coaching turnover and decommits happened. Looking at the 2024 class, I think the future classes will set up our team much better in the future. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators Gerry Hamilton Posted February 16 Author Moderators Share Posted February 16 1 hour ago, hookem1 said: One thing I think it’s important to remember is what transpired with the late attrition of the 2023 recruiting class. This year’s roster looks A LOT different with Holland and Johnson. I think Terry did an okay job piecing the roster together this year but it’s hard with the timing of when the coaching turnover and decommits happened. Looking at the 2024 class, I think the future classes will set up our team much better in the future. I do like the 2024 class, especially at guard. Tre Johnson (6-6) and Cam Scott (6-5) bring size and individual shot making wither perimeter skill. Devon Pryor (6-7) sophomore at wing, Weaver returns ... that ideal off ball skill and size. Chris Johnson also a 6-4 combo guard. PG in portal is possibile. If Texas could win out for 6-11 Ulrich Chomche (if he doesn't go to NBA), that would be huge. That's three future first round picks in 2024 class. Rugged, but skilled enough big in portal for sure. Maybe two. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jerry K Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 I think K State and OSU are must win games. They lose either one of those and it’s a bad resume hit. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hermanator Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Been a disappointing season. If they don't make the tournament or barely sneak in and get bounced in the first round, I think Rodney Terry should get only one more season to get it right. This is a whole new era of big time college ball, and with the sheer amount of talent the state of Texas produces combined with the portal and NIL there's no excuse for this program to miss the tournament or barely squeak in. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators Gerry Hamilton Posted February 16 Author Moderators Share Posted February 16 51 minutes ago, Jerry K said: I think K State and OSU are must win games. They lose either one of those and it’s a bad resume hit. OSU is a must win. Can't lose that one. Need to win all three home games. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators Gerry Hamilton Posted February 16 Author Moderators Share Posted February 16 23 minutes ago, Hermanator said: Been a disappointing season. If they don't make the tournament or barely sneak in and get bounced in the first round, I think Rodney Terry should get only one more season to get it right. This is a whole new era of big time college ball, and with the sheer amount of talent the state of Texas produces combined with the portal and NIL there's no excuse for this program to miss the tournament or barely squeak in. Year two will tell the story. Problem for Texas basketball is they have had too much coaching turnover in a short amount of time. Beard comes in, and they have Brock Cunningham and have to build a team. Get into tournament, win one game. Beard on track, but then we all know what happened. RT gets job, and essentially has Brock Cunningham and injured Dylan Disu for sure coming back and has to build team. Texas needs to get in the tournament this year, and build more in year two. Texas needs some stability to have shot to build, but RT and staff have to win enough to create it. I'm in no way saying RT/Texas is in a position similar to UConn ... but they gave Danny Hurley time to build something and create some stability. He went 16-17 and 19-12 and no NCAA Tourney. Then lost in Round of 64 next two years before the obvious breakthrough. Texas isn't a blue blood basketball program, and the University certainly doesn't approach basketball like they want to be a blue blood. But they have enough with Moody and NIL to compete. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators Gerry Hamilton Posted February 16 Author Moderators Share Posted February 16 Texas SOS currently around 25 ... will end up 15'ish https://www.teamrankings.com/ncaa-basketball/ranking/schedule-strength-by-other Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TexasMDcoach Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Gerry, you think Tre Johnson will play here? Hope he does. He is a sure thing to be a star straight out of the blocks as a freshman. Been watching him since his early HS days at LHHS and he is as good as they come. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators Gerry Hamilton Posted February 16 Author Moderators Share Posted February 16 28 minutes ago, TexasMDcoach said: Gerry, you think Tre Johnson will play here? Hope he does. He is a sure thing to be a star straight out of the blocks as a freshman. Been watching him since his early HS days at LHHS and he is as good as they come. I do think he will play one year at Texas. He likes the idea of being a college player ... and he has nice NIL runway 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baron Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 6 hours ago, CJ Vogel said: A seven seed in the tournament would be quite the achievement considering where the trajectory of this team was headed just over a month ago. I'm thinking an eight or nine. which makes for a difficult round two matchup. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators Gerry Hamilton Posted February 17 Author Moderators Share Posted February 17 14 minutes ago, Baron said: I'm thinking an eight or nine. which makes for a difficult round two matchup. Same place I'm at in seeding, at 8-10 in Big 12 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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