OTF community question ...

[HornsUpThumbsDown]

1 hour ago, Gerry Hamilton said:

After wins at home over Missouri and Texas A&M, will Texas make the NCAA Tournament? Wanted to get the pulse of the OTF community 

Texas is 14-6 and 3-4 in the SEC

The Longhorns will need to get to 7-11 to have realistic shot. That would likely be a play in game. 8-10 would likely be a 11'ish seed.

So Texas has to at least win 4 of the last 11 to get to 7 wins. And the schedule is tough:

@Ole Miss
@LSU
Arkansas
@Vanderbilt
Alabama
Kentucky
@South Carolina
@Arkansas
Georgia
@Mississippi State
Oklahoma

Beat OU at end of the year and get in… Mayo corn dogs for all 

[Jordan91]

Taking it a game at a time. 

[Glass Joe]

Win the 3 “winnable” home games - UGA, Ark, OU.

Go 2-2 on the road games against unranked opponents (Vandy, Ark, LSU, S.Car).

Lose the remaining four games against ranked opponents (Ole Miss, MSU, Kentucky, Bama).

That gets us to 8 SEC wins.  If we happen to pull an upset against a ranked opponent, than we only need to win one road game against an unranked foe.

[horns96]

I have no idea.  I've watched almost every game, but still can't even name 1/3 of the dudes on the roster.

[Blackshan]

I think they will make it into the tournament. I’m sure the team knows what has to happen to get in the tournament.  As the season goes the team should be getting closer and having more chemistry. 

[TexasMDcoach]

I do not think 7-11 will get us there.  Maybe 8-10 will but not 7-11.   That means we need 5 more wins.  I do not think this team will get there especially with the i injuries we have if they persist.  Hope I am wrong.  The way I see it we need to at least tie for being in the top half of the conference.  This is no different in my view of some of those really competitive Big 12 seasons where slightly under .500 might get you in if you finish in the top half.  7-11 seems a stretch.

Edited January 27 by TexasMDcoach

[Longhorn Wealth]

Last year MIss St made the Big Dance with an 8-10 record in SEC play, but they were 21-14 overall.

If Texas only gets to 8-10 n SEC, then that means their overall record would only be 19-12.  If they go 7-11, they will be 18-13.  Hopefully the strength of schedule gets them in, but last year LSU was 17-16 overall and 9-9 in SEC and got left out.  Ole Miss was 7-11 in SEC and 20-12 and got left out.  Gonna be close for Texas, unless they also make a splash in the SEC tourney.

[Assistant Regional Manager]

22 minutes ago, Longhorn Wealth said:

Last year MIss St made the Big Dance with an 8-10 record in SEC play, but they were 21-14 overall.

If Texas only gets to 8-10 n SEC, then that means their overall record would only be 19-12.  If they go 7-11, they will be 18-13.  Hopefully the strength of schedule gets them in, but last year LSU was 17-16 overall and 9-9 in SEC and got left out.  Ole Miss was 7-11 in SEC and 20-12 and got left out.  Gonna be close for Texas, unless they also make a splash in the SEC tourney.

Ole Miss and LSU had NET rankings in the 90’s. That is basically an automatic disqualifier for any team wanting an at large berth. Mississippi State was 31st.

Texas is currently 32nd.

[TheContractor12]

Ole Miss, LSU, Arky, Vandy - thats the 4 game stretch we need to win 3

at the end we have UK, USCE, Arky, UGA, Ou - need to win 3 of those 5. 

ill concede Bama, Miss St. 

that is doable 

[goattalk100]

I really want to say yes. But I’m just not sure this team has the consistency to win enough of those games. RT’s biggest weakness is his lack of offensive prowess. Too much 1 on 1 & PnR with no plan. 

[Jack Lala]

Need a road win or two. Without that, no way to get there. And Gerry argued yesterday that to be safe we need to get to 8 wins.

[Grady Wilson]

Don't see the tourney happening. 

[tylerlindsey2111]

@Ole Miss - Loss
@LSU - Win
Arkansas - Win
@Vanderbilt - Loss
Alabama - Loss
Kentucky - Win
@South Carolina - Win
@Arkansas - Loss
Georgia - Win
@Mississippi State - Loss
Oklahoma - Win

Should be in comfortably if it plays out this way.

[Bobby Burton]

Was the second half against A&M who Texas truly is or was that just an aberration?

Probably a slight mix of both.

[Born Burnt Orange]

15 hours ago, Joe Zura said:

Don’t want to be the negative person here but I don’t think we do with the sec being this dominant this year. Hope I’m wrong 

We have 2 games against Arkansas as well as 1 against SC, UO, and Georgia.  Stick to your memes. 😂 

[Joe Zura]

1 minute ago, Born Burnt Orange said:

We have 2 games against Arkansas as well as 1 against SC, UO, and Georgia.  Stick to your memes. 😂 

[tylerlindsey2111]

5 minutes ago, Bobby Burton said:

Was the second half against A&M who Texas truly is or was that just an aberration?

Probably a slight mix of both.

A good mix of both, but I would say the same thing in regard to A&M and their first half. Eight made 3's in a half by them is out of this world. I cite this because of the clear gameplan to short the closeouts toward several of their guys, a way to protect the paint without making auch a strategical change such as playing zone.

Tre going nuclear in the second half to that level is far fetched, but much more likely than the prior example.

[Jordan91]

5 hours ago, goattalk100 said:

I really want to say yes. But I’m just not sure this team has the consistency to win enough of those games. RT’s biggest weakness is his lack of offensive prowess. Too much 1 on 1 & PnR with no plan. 

The one on one iso is run because they have no legit point guard. Pope is not quick enough to get around most SEC point guards. So no penetration into the lane which draws the defense into the paint. So iso is a plan. Not saying it’s a good one. 

[Jordan91]

33 minutes ago, tylerlindsey2111 said:

A good mix of both, but I would say the same thing in regard to A&M and their first half. Eight made 3's in a half by them is out of this world. I cite this because of the clear gameplan to short the closeouts toward several of their guys, a way to protect the paint without making auch a strategical change such as playing zone.

Tre going nuclear in the second half to that level is far fetched, but much more likely than the prior example.

A&M started with the pressure just like you said they would. It slowed the game down. 

[Jordan91]

49 minutes ago, Bobby Burton said:

Was the second half against A&M who Texas truly is or was that just an aberration?

Probably a slight mix of both.

Any win without Kaluma is a gift. They were pounded on the boards. 

[ClubWhatever]

It's a crap shoot.  Could go either way.  Ask me in a month.  Anybody's guess.  We shall see.

[ATX16]

For you historians, if we're on the bubble at 8-10 or even 7-11, with 5-10 Q1 record will our OOC schedule at 352 (kenpom) sink us?

 

[tylerlindsey2111]

6 minutes ago, ATX16 said:

For you historians, if we're on the bubble at 8-10 or even 7-11, with 5-10 Q1 record will our OOC schedule at 352 (kenpom) sink us?

 

Previous to the Super Conferences, sure. In this era? No, 8-10 will get them in.

[bierce]

59 minutes ago, tylerlindsey2111 said:

Previous to the Super Conferences, sure. In this era? No, 8-10 will get them in.

I'm not convinced we are in even if we finish 8-10 without there being something more of real value on the resume.  Before we beat both Missouri and A&M, I was very much in the doubtful camp because an 8-10 record could have made almost entirely with wins against teams left out of the tournament (Arky and OU each x2, South Carolina, LSU) and home wins that aren't q1 (Georgia--it might be, but then again it probably won't come mid-March).  But now we have at least one signature win.  If we get another (say against Kentucky or Alabama in Austin) or against either team from the state of Mississippi or against Vandy, then we should be good even at 8-10.  But if we beat LSU and South Carolina on the road and Georgia, OU, and Arkansas at our place, we finish with 8 wins in conference and could have only 2 q1 wins if LSU and Missouri both slide a little in NET rankings.   Anyone feel utterly confident about us making the tournament with a 2-12 record in q1 games?  We were 5-9 in  q1 games last year, and I think most of us acknowledged that we were over-seeded to create a Barnes-Terry match in the second round. 

If we don't get another signature win, then we probably should worry about getting at least one win in the conference tournament.  At 8-10 we'd be playing in the first round in against the pool of teams finishing in spots 9-16, meaning we would be playing the likes of South Carolina or LSU in the first round.  That would not be a good game to lose 2 or 3 days before the committee makes it selections, particularly by a team with so few statement wins.  

But I've said before, and I'll say again, we are likely to win at least one game we are projected to lose and to lose at least one game we are projected to win.  But let's not forget that our chances to beat anybody will be affected by Kaluma's (and Weaver's) availability. 

 

[Deadhead_Horn]

18 hours ago, Drunk randoke said:

Yes.  Hope they do well and get in.  I maintain RT is not the answer at Texas.  I’d love to be wrong.

This is the right answer. I think they play well, I think they get in, but I don't think RT is the long-term answer. He was a feel good story, but Texas deserves one of the best coaches in the country and RT just ain't that guy.