bierce Posted March 15 Author Posted March 15 2 minutes ago, Glass Joe said: Yeah, I think with Boise State beating UNM, we may now be the last team out. To make matters worse, if Colorado State beats Utah State (they are up 9 pts early) that will set up a situation where the winner of Boise vs Colorado State automatically gets into the tournament. Both of these teams were behind Texas starting play today (according to Lunardi), so this may be the bid steal that dooms Texas. Assuming the above, I think the final Play-In spot is now between UNC and Texas. The fact that UNC made it a competitive game against Duke in the second half may change committee perceptions (from the dreadful first half for UNC). Aside from this Boise vs Colorado St scenario, Texas needs to be aware of North Texas upsetting Memphis in the AAC tourney, which would also be a bid steal that may doom Texas. Or VCU losing in the A10, or Uc San Diego losing in the Big West, or several other things. I can't think of another team that missed the tournament with 7 Q1 wins, but we very well may become the first if there are no precedents. Quote
Glass Joe Posted March 15 Posted March 15 35 minutes ago, bierce said: Or VCU losing in the A10, or Uc San Diego losing in the Big West, or several other things. I can't think of another team that missed the tournament with 7 Q1 wins, but we very well may become the first if there are no precedents. Yeah, when I compare our resume to Xavier, I’m lost as to how they are considered to be ahead of us. They are 2-9 in Quad 1 games, and their top 4 non-conference opponents are nearly identically ranked as our top 4 non-conference opponents based on NET rankings. The only difference is the overall records. Texas is 8-10 spots higher than Xavier in NET, and above them in WAB. Quote
AusMOJO Posted March 15 Posted March 15 6 hours ago, bierce said: And Boise State beats UNM. Texas is probably now on the outside looking in. That sucks man.... Quote
HudGar1922 Posted March 15 Posted March 15 38 minutes ago, AusMOJO said: That sucks man.... i mean, no one thinks we really deserve it. maybe we get one win in the tourney but i poor rebounding and turnovers wouldn’t allow us to go past that Quote
Moderators Gerry Hamilton Posted March 15 Moderators Posted March 15 9 hours ago, bierce said: And Boise State beats UNM. Texas is probably now on the outside looking in. We shall see. The team that should not be in is North Carolina ... a total joke if they get in the tournament going 1-12 in Quad 1 games. The entire NCAA Tournament has/should be looked at as Quad 1 games: UNC is the one team that has shown the worst results against the best competition. 3 Quote
bierce Posted March 15 Author Posted March 15 7 hours ago, Glass Joe said: Yeah, when I compare our resume to Xavier, I’m lost as to how they are considered to be ahead of us. They are 2-9 in Quad 1 games, and their top 4 non-conference opponents are nearly identically ranked as our top 4 non-conference opponents based on NET rankings. The only difference is the overall records. Texas is 8-10 spots higher than Xavier in NET, and above them in WAB. Texas was on about 6 more brackets that updated yesterday morning than UNC, and Xavier was running about 10 behind UNC, so the matrix had us in a very slight lead for the last spot. Even if the matrix is correct in havng Texas nose out UNC and Xavier, we are at risk of losing that last spot to an upset tournament champ in the A10, Big West, or AAC. Even Colorado State beating Boise State could cause problems. 1 Quote
Jordan91 Posted March 15 Posted March 15 1 hour ago, Gerry Hamilton said: We shall see. The team that should not be in is North Carolina ... a total joke if they get in the tournament going 1-12 in Quad 1 games. The entire NCAA Tournament has/should be looked at as Quad 1 games: UNC is the one team that has shown the worst results against the best competition. Lunardi now has North Carolina out, but he still has Texas out. Why Xavier is in blows my mind. Quote
Moderators Gerry Hamilton Posted March 15 Moderators Posted March 15 1 hour ago, Jordan91 said: Lunardi now has North Carolina out, but he still has Texas out. Why Xavier is in blows my mind. He's trying to help CDC hiring Sean Miller lol 1 6 Quote
bierce Posted March 15 Author Posted March 15 Ok, not looking good in the matrix this morning. 36 brackets updates this morning. Indiana seems safe, being on 28 of those. Boise State is on 20. Colorado State would get the last spot, being on 17. However, some of the BSU/CSU votes might reflect autobids being awarded, so it is kind of hard to tell which team is more highly regarded by the matrix at this point. Bracketurds going by NET ranking to create a favorite to win the tournament would pick Boise State. If they go by regular season conference standings, they would pick Colorado State. Of the 8 bracketwats that put both in, 4 have CSU seeded 11th and BSU 12th, 3 have BSU seeded 11th and CSU 12th, and one has both as a 12 seed. Texas is on 14. Xavier is on 12. UNC is on 7. So I guess we go all in rooting for Boise State today. 1 Quote
harveycmd Posted March 15 Posted March 15 SEC basketball refs suck worse than SEC football refs. Quote
Fan of the Game Posted March 15 Posted March 15 12 minutes ago, harveycmd said: Vols are getting away with straight up crimes. Is the SEC Final Four really the de facto Final Four…? 🤔 Quote
CoachBobbyFinstock Posted March 15 Posted March 15 Texas deserves in before UNC. After that I’m not sure. The whole bubble this year is weak. If Texas is left out it’s their own fault not because of this being a difficult thing to accomplish. Quote
Moderators Gerry Hamilton Posted March 15 Moderators Posted March 15 2 hours ago, bierce said: Ok, not looking good in the matrix this morning. 36 brackets updates this morning. Indiana seems safe, being on 28 of those. Boise State is on 20. Colorado State would get the last spot, being on 17. However, some of the BSU/CSU votes might reflect autobids being awarded, so it is kind of hard to tell which team is more highly regarded by the matrix at this point. Bracketurds going by NET ranking to create a favorite to win the tournament would pick Boise State. If they go by regular season conference standings, they would pick Colorado State. Of the 8 bracketwats that put both in, 4 have CSU seeded 11th and BSU 12th, 3 have BSU seeded 11th and CSU 12th, and one has both as a 12 seed. Texas is on 14. Xavier is on 12. UNC is on 7. So I guess we go all in rooting for Boise State today. We shall see on Indiana ... No. 54 in NCAA NET and 4-13 vs. Quad 1 Quote
bierce Posted March 15 Author Posted March 15 11 minutes ago, Gerry Hamilton said: We shall see on Indiana ... No. 54 in NCAA NET and 4-13 vs. Quad 1 But no q2 losses. We have 5 of those. Combined q1-q2 record for Indiana is 9-13. For Texas it is 10-15. Both teams suffered nukings and both teams suffered close losses to tournament worthy opponents. I know the committee claims that it gives no regard to conference affiliation when it deals out bids, but I think a lot of people will have a hard time swallowing 14 of 16 SEC teams making the field. By now, everyone on the committee has memorized each bubble team's quad breakdown, so members will know who they are voting for and against even without seeing the name of the team. Quote
Clint Baros Posted March 15 Posted March 15 Bracket matrix results for teams currently on the bubble Teams currently in: (11) Indiana: on 88/112 brackets (11) Texas: on 64/112 brackets (12) Boise State: on 61/112 brackets Teams currently out: Xavier: on 48/112 brackets North Carolina: on 46/112 brackets Colorado State: on 30/112 brackets Although these are not guaranteed as of right now, barring any bid stealers, I feel confident about our chances. Lunardi and Jerry palm rank in the lower half of accuracy according to the bracketology rankings. Quote
bierce Posted March 15 Author Posted March 15 (edited) 16 minutes ago, Clint Baros said: Bracket matrix results for teams currently on the bubble Teams currently in: (11) Indiana: on 88/112 brackets (11) Texas: on 64/112 brackets (12) Boise State: on 61/112 brackets Teams currently out: Xavier: on 48/112 brackets North Carolina: on 46/112 brackets Colorado State: on 30/112 brackets Although these are not guaranteed as of right now, barring any bid stealers, I feel confident about our chances. Lunardi and Jerry palm rank in the lower half of accuracy according to the bracketology rankings. It's important at this point to count only the brackets that updated that morning. Colorado State and Boise State profile much better today than they did yesterday. 45 brackets haven''t yet updated today. Texas was on 37 of those, Boise State was on 8, and Colorado State was on none. So you can see how much better BSU and CSU do with the updated bracket. Edited March 15 by bierce Quote
bierce Posted March 15 Author Posted March 15 Sorry, Texas was on 34 of the brackets that haven't updated. Quote
Clint Baros Posted March 15 Posted March 15 1 minute ago, bierce said: Sorry, Texas was on 34 of the brackets that haven't updated. how do you see which ones updated or not? Quote
bierce Posted March 15 Author Posted March 15 (edited) 3 minutes ago, Clint Baros said: how do you see which ones updated or not? At the top of the page, you will see each named bracket. Underneath it you will see the date of last update that the matrix has plugged in. If you click on the name of the bracket, it will take you to that bracketwizarian's page. Sometimes you will find a new update. I haven't checked to see if any of the 3/14 brackets have updated. This late in the bracketzoo season, the matrix helpfully separates the brackets updated that morning with ones that are a day or more old by inserting another column of team names. Edited March 15 by bierce Quote
bierce Posted March 15 Author Posted March 15 Rowan Brumbaugh turnover may have saved this for Memphis. Refs kind of let Haggerty get away with stuff in making the steal, but I'm not complaining. Quote
BobInHouston Posted March 15 Posted March 15 10 hours ago, Gerry Hamilton said: We shall see. The team that should not be in is North Carolina ... a total joke if they get in the tournament going 1-12 in Quad 1 games. The entire NCAA Tournament has/should be looked at as Quad 1 games: UNC is the one team that has shown the worst results against the best competition. ... followed closely by Xavier. Who would want that coach? Quote
BobInHouston Posted March 15 Posted March 15 2 hours ago, bierce said: At the top of the page, you will see each named bracket. Underneath it you will see the date of last update that the matrix has plugged in. If you click on the name of the bracket, it will take you to that bracketwizarian's page. Sometimes you will find a new update. I haven't checked to see if any of the 3/14 brackets have updated. This late in the bracketzoo season, the matrix helpfully separates the brackets updated that morning with ones that are a day or more old by inserting another column of team names. Almost 90 brackets have been updated as of this time (about 6:30 CT) and Texas is on 44 percent of them. They need every possible favorite to win tonight. Quote
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