The Hit Rate of Texas Recruiting Classes

[Bobby Burton]

Looking back at recruiting classes can be a difficult process. How do you grade them (based solely on college performance and what they did at Texas?), when exactly do you grade them (at the end of four years or five years, or even further out), etc?

Well, hindsight is 20/20 as they say.

To remove any ambiguity, I developed this retrospective solely on players who played in the NFL (does not include taxi/practice squad) and take into consideration roster attrition.

2011 (21 signees/3 NFL players) - RB, Malcolm Brown; DB, Quandre Diggs; DB, Mykkele Thompson

Evaluation Rate: 3/21 = 14.29% (No. of players who made the NFL divided by number of signees)

Hit Rate: 3/21 = 14.29% (No. of players who finished their careers at Texas and made the NFL divided by number of signees)

Notes: The demise of Mack Brown can be directly tied to his final five recruiting classes. Both the 2009 and 2010 recruiting classes also had just three players make the NFL. Brown, at the time, was truly selecting the players he and his staff wanted. They did not do a good job overall. 

2012 (28 signees/6 NFL players) - DT, Malcom Brown; OL, Donald Hawkins; DT, Hassan Ridgeway; CB, Duke Thomas; DB, Adrian Colbert (transfer out); WR, Marcus Johnson

Evaluation Rate: 6/28 = 21.42%

Hit Rate: 5/28 = 17.86%

Notes: Better numbers made the league here but as a percentage it was still way too slight. Adrian Colbert became one of only two Mack Brown transfers who eventually made the NFL from elsewhere (JaMarcus Webb was the other).

2013 (15 signees/4 NFL players) - OL, Kent Perkins; OL, Desmond Harrison (transfer out); TE, Geoff Swaim; ATH, Montrel Meander (transfer out)

Evaluation Rate: 4/15 = 26.67%

Hit Rate: 2/15 = 13.33%

2014 (23 signees/4 NFL players) - DE, Derick Roberson (transfer out); DT, Poona Ford; TE, Andrew Beck; RB, D'Onta Foreman

Evaluation Rate: 4/23 = 17.39%

Hit Rate: 3/23 = 13.04%

Notes: Transition class from Mack Brown to Charlie Strong. Only one of Strong's recruits from the month of January ended up being an NFL player - Poona Ford.

2015 (27 signees/8 NFL players) - LB, Malik Jefferson; DB, Holton Hill; DB, Kris Boyd; DB, DeShon Elliott; DL, Charles Omenihu; OL, Connor Williams; DB, PJ Locke; P, Michael Dickson

Evaluation Rate: 8/27 = 29.63%

Hit Rate: 8/27 = 29.63%

Notes: This was the best Texas class in nearly a decade and showed that Charlie Strong not only could recruit but his staff also ultimately had an eye for talent; Strong immediately doubled the Hit Rate of any of the previous eight years.

2016 (28 signees/7 NFL players) - WR, Devin Duvernay, DB, Brandon Jones; DT, Jordan Elliott (transfer out); WR, Collin Johnson; DL, Malcom Roach; QB, Shane Buechele (transfer out); WR, LJ Humphrey

Evaluation Rate: 7/28 = 25%

Hit Rate = 5/28 = 17.86%

Notes: Yet again, Strong showed a relatively strong eye for talent. But his poor on-field performance hurt his recruiting some. 

2017 (18 signees/4 NFL players) - QB, Sam Ehlinger; DL, TaQuon Graham; OL, Sam Cosmi; DB, Josh Thompson

Evaluation Rate: 4/18 22.22%

Hit Rate: 4/18 22.22%

Notes: Transition Class from Strong to Tom Herman. Like Strong, Herman only added one new signee that would eventually become an NFL player - Sam Cosmi.

2018 (27 signees/11 NFL players) - DB, Caden Sterns; LB, DeMarvion Overshown; DT, Keondre Coburn; DL, Moro Ojomo; DE, Joe Ossai; CB, D'Shawn Jamison; RB, Keontay Ingram (transfer out); OL, Christian Jones; K, Cameron Dicker; DB, Jalen Green (transfer out); QB Cameron Rising (transfer out) (Players in italics have yet to be selected in NFL draft and make an NFL team)

Evaluation Rate: 11/27 = 40.74%

Hit Rate: 8/27 = 29.63%

Notes: This is the class that should have helped put Tom Herman over the top. Despite recruiting rankings to the contrary, he and his staff simply couldn't put two good classes together back-to-back.

2019 (28 signees/6 NFL players) - WR, Bru McCoy (transfer out); WR, Jordan Whittington; S, Tyler Owens (transfer out); RB, Roschon Johnson; TE, Jared Wiley (transfer out); DT, T'Vondre Sweat

Evaluation Rate: 6/28 = 21.43%

Hit Rate: 3/28 = 10.71%

Notes: Look at the lowest Hit Rate of the decade. Even Mack Brown's last classes didn't miss on this many. This is part of the reason why Steve Sarkisian was saddled early with a lack of NFL talent. Attrition clearly played a role here but so did evaluation.

2020 (22 signees/8 NFL players) - RB, Bijan Robinson; DL, Alfred Collins; ATH, Ja'Quinden Jackson (transfer out); OL, Jake Majors; DB, Jahdae Barron; LB, Jaylan Ford; DB Brenden Schooler; WR Tarik Black

Evaluation Rate: 8/22 =36.36%

Hit Rate: 7/22 = 25.93%

Notes: A solid class. The evaluation and hit rate are buoyed by the additions of Schooler and Black as transfers and Black never really did much as a Longhorn.

**

NFL Hit Rates of elite programs should average in the 25-35% range, so that's what Texas should focus on achieving. Yet the Horns matched or surpassed that figure just three times in 10 years. And the Horns barely averaged 25% from just an "Evaluation Rate", which doesn't take into account attrition/transfers.

Overall, poor depth and lack of top-end talent riddled Texas for much of the 2010s.

So did recruiting inconsistency. Poor years for Strong in 2016 and Herman in 2019 perhaps showed that neither could sustain success at Texas.

10-year average Evaluation Rate: 25.56%

10-year average Hit Rate: 19.45%

**

A quick look into the 2021, 2022 and 2023 classes thus far.

First, like his predecessors, Sark added at least one NFL player in his first month on the job in the 2021 class - Xavier Worthy. However, Sark also added Keilan Robinson who has a chance at the NFL as well. (Note to athletic administrators who make coaching changes: adding NFL players late in the process is just unlikely no matter who the coach is.)

As for the 2022 class, Sark's group looks on par if not better than both Herman's and Strong's second classes, which attracted eight and 11 NFL players, respectively.

The third class is where Sark diverges from Herman and Strong. While both Strong and Herman spiraled downward with third class, Sark is drastically different.

His third recruiting class was nothing short of outstanding. In fact, early returns suggest his 2023 recruiting class will be Sark's best yet.

 

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[CJ Vogel]

Surprising how much talent those 2015 and 2016 classes brought in despite the results on the field. 

[Bobby Burton]

6 minutes ago, CJ Vogel said:

Surprising how much talent those 2015 and 2016 classes brought in despite the results on the field. 

They’re why they won the Sugar Bowl.

But the inconsistency in recruiting didn’t allow them to sustain success. That’s why stacking recruiting classes is so important. 

[gus fleener]

Awesome analysis.  Thanks Bobby.

If Sark keeps it going (& I think he will), the Burnt Orange Era of college football is imminent.

[marathon]

@Bobby Burton

Good article. 

To make things worse were the lack of impact quarterbacks on the roster during the past 15 years before Ewers and Arch.

[Bobby Burton]

27 minutes ago, marathon said:

@Bobby Burton

Good article. 

To make things worse were the lack of impact quarterbacks on the roster during the past 15 years before Ewers and Arch.

I did not do a position analysis, which probably would have been useful, too.

QBs a clear issue. Only Sam made it to the league.

[closetojumping]

I posted a thread of a similar nature on Surly. Link below, for anyone that doesn't go there normally but had an interest in adjacent content for this subject matter. If cusswords bother you, or if you're a big fan of Tom Herman, don't click. 

Anyway, good post, Bobby, but you're too gentlemanly in your review of that class. It's a staggeringly bad class. I realize that Owens and McCoy may make an NFL roster, but they did nothing at Texas and Owens is just a general nothing overall. 

To me, the two big issues for that class were as follows:

1) They lost 5 guys before the fall began. McCoy, Floyd, Caleb Johnson, Mpagi, and DBrown. Three of those went down to career-ending injuries before playing (Floyd obviously got approved years later to play elsewhere). They ran Johnson off before the spring ended. McCoy, well, he behaved like a child during that period. But 5 out of 24 is 21% of your class vanishing into thin air before school started. That's brutal.

2) The evaluations basically completely failed at the top, both by the services and staff. Owens, Smith, Liebrock, and Watson were all national top 150/175 guys. They were all failures. Owens failed at Tech too. The NFL has him at the combine due to his measurables, a siren song of his for all evaluators. Add these whiffs with the McCoy BS and Floyd's situation and it's a decapitation of the class at the top in a spectacular way. 

Anyway, here's the aforementioned link: https://www.surlyhorns.com/board/topic/33867-one-class-can-kill-you-reviewing-the-texas-2019-class/#comments

[Park Gothic]

Excellent post. Now DM this to Ari Wasserman's dumb ass. 

[Lam Dinh]

Great post, I've been thinking about what's an appropriate benchmark for knowing Texas is back in terms of elite talent development. Looks like the 25-35% NFL hit rate is the number to target and monitor.

Similarly, I also looked at the records of all other in-state major college football programs in that same 2011-2020 year time frame vs. # of NFL draft picks (only including players drafted, not un-drafted free agent signings). 

Takeaway: While Texas had more NFL picks than any other Texas college football program in those 10 years (despite being "down" overall as a program), this did not translate into a better on field product, with Texas having the second lowest win % during that time. Unsurprisingly, the moniker of "UT can't develop talent" was proven to be correct during this dark period of Texas football.

2011-2020	Wins	Losses	Win %	NFL Picks
Texas Tech	56	66	46%	27
Texas	70	59	54%	41
Baylor	78	48	62%	25
Houston	78	46	63%	17
TCU	80	46	63%	30
A&M	84	43	66%	31

Edited February 27 by Lam Dinh

[Bobby Burton]

49 minutes ago, closetojumping said:

I posted a thread of a similar nature on Surly. Link below, for anyone that doesn't go there normally but had an interest in adjacent content for this subject matter. If cusswords bother you, or if you're a big fan of Tom Herman, don't click. 

Anyway, good post, Bobby, but you're too gentlemanly in your review of that class. It's a staggeringly bad class. I realize that Owens and McCoy may make an NFL roster, but they did nothing at Texas and Owens is just a general nothing overall. 

To me, the two big issues for that class were as follows:

1) They lost 5 guys before the fall began. McCoy, Floyd, Caleb Johnson, Mpagi, and DBrown. Three of those went down to career-ending injuries before playing (Floyd obviously got approved years later to play elsewhere). They ran Johnson off before the spring ended. McCoy, well, he behaved like a child during that period. But 5 out of 24 is 21% of your class vanishing into thin air before school started. That's brutal.

2) The evaluations basically completely failed at the top, both by the services and staff. Owens, Smith, Liebrock, and Watson were all national top 150/175 guys. They were all failures. Owens failed at Tech too. The NFL has him at the combine due to his measurables, a siren song of his for all evaluators. Add these whiffs with the McCoy BS and Floyd's situation and it's a decapitation of the class at the top in a spectacular way. 

Anyway, here's the aforementioned link: https://www.surlyhorns.com/board/topic/33867-one-class-can-kill-you-reviewing-the-texas-2019-class/#comments

Great discussion. Thanks for posting.

The bigger idea to me here is the necessity and value of stringing recruiting classes together. Even a one-year hiccup can be devastating to consistency.

If you want to be a consistently elite program, you have to be a great recruiting  program every year.

--

And that's not to mention whatever it is that the finals years of Mack Brown tells us.

[Bobby Burton]

Position Breakdown:

Quarterbacks (5) - Sam Ehlinger, Shane Buechele (transfer), Ja'Quinden Jackson (transfer, moved to RB), Cam Rising (transfer), R Johnson (position change)

Running backs (4) - Brown, Foreman, Ingram, Robinson

Receivers (8) - Humphrey, Duvernay, C Johnson, M Johnson, Whittington, Meander (transfer, moved to LB), McCoy (transfer), Black

Tight end (3) - Swaim, Beck, Wiley (transfer)

Offensive line (7) - Cosmi, Perkins, Harrison (transfer), Jones, Majors, Williams, Hawkins

Defensive end (4) - Ossai, Omenihu, Roach, Roberson (transfer)

Defensive tackle (9) - Ford, Brown, Ridgeway, Sweat, Elliott (transfer), Graham, Collins, Coburn, Ojomo

Linebacker (3) - Jefferson, Overshown, Ford

Cornerback (4) - Hill, Boyd, Thomas, Jamison

Safety (12) - Diggs, M Thompson, Jones, Locke, Sterns, J Thompson, Elliott, Barron, Schooler, Colbert (transfer), Green (transfer), Owens (transfer)

Punter (1) - Michael Dickson

Kicker (1) - Cameron Dicker

Notes:

- Only 7 OLs compasred to 13 DLs.

- Look at the staggering discrepancy between corner and safety.

- Only 1 QB stayed at QB; RoJo moved to RB obviously but wasn't recruited as such.

- In a 10-year run, the highest drafted receiver for the Horns came at no. 92 overall. Texas should have two WRs gone before that in this upcoming draft.

- Texas signed NFL TEs in back-to-back years and then not another one for five years.

- Hard to believe Texas produced only five NFL RBs in that decade and one of them was a converted QB.

[Jerry K]

Thanks Bobby! It would be interesting to see the teams record with each year compared to the results recruiting class. 

[marathon]

43 minutes ago, Bobby Burton said:

The bigger idea to me here is the necessity and value of stringing recruiting classes together. Even a one-year hiccup can be devastating to consistency.

We’re seeing that in the DL. Bo Davis didn’t sign the numbers necessary or the high end elite talent. If you evaluate well you can get by with developing players as long as the pipeline is full.

Signing only Sydir Mitchell in the 2023 class on the DL was borderline insane. And to follow that up with only 2 DT in 2024 puts you at a disadvantage headed into the SEC. 

Praying for a difference maker at DT from the portal is not a strategy you want to rely on.

[codaxx]

1 hour ago, closetojumping said:

I posted a thread of a similar nature on Surly. Link below, for anyone that doesn't go there normally but had an interest in adjacent content for this subject matter. If cusswords bother you, or if you're a big fan of Tom Herman, don't click. 

Anyway, good post, Bobby, but you're too gentlemanly in your review of that class. It's a staggeringly bad class. I realize that Owens and McCoy may make an NFL roster, but they did nothing at Texas and Owens is just a general nothing overall. 

To me, the two big issues for that class were as follows:

1) They lost 5 guys before the fall began. McCoy, Floyd, Caleb Johnson, Mpagi, and DBrown. Three of those went down to career-ending injuries before playing (Floyd obviously got approved years later to play elsewhere). They ran Johnson off before the spring ended. McCoy, well, he behaved like a child during that period. But 5 out of 24 is 21% of your class vanishing into thin air before school started. That's brutal.

2) The evaluations basically completely failed at the top, both by the services and staff. Owens, Smith, Liebrock, and Watson were all national top 150/175 guys. They were all failures. Owens failed at Tech too. The NFL has him at the combine due to his measurables, a siren song of his for all evaluators. Add these whiffs with the McCoy BS and Floyd's situation and it's a decapitation of the class at the top in a spectacular way. 

Anyway, here's the aforementioned link: https://www.surlyhorns.com/board/topic/33867-one-class-can-kill-you-reviewing-the-texas-2019-class/#comments

To truly appreciate the disaster that was the 2019 class you need a full look at it.. 

Listed in order of highest rated to lowest

Bru - transfer

Owens - transfer

JWhitt

Floyd- medical

Smith- transfer

Johnson- transfer

Warren- transfer

Adimora- transfer

Gbenda

Liebrock- transfer

Washington - transfer

Shepard- transfer

Brown- medical

Rojo 

Sweat

Mpagi - medical

JOnes 

Lewis - transfer

Caldwell- transfer

Wiley- transfer

Tyler- transfer

Mitchell- transfer

Hopefully my memory was correct on that, but lets forget about development and just look at retention.  78.2% of the class transferred or had medical issues. It one thing to miss on guys that become program players (back-ups and special teams), it is another to see almost 80% just walk out the door

 

 

Edited February 27 by codaxx

[codaxx]

9 minutes ago, marathon said:

We’re seeing that in the DL. Bo Davis didn’t sign the numbers necessary or the high end elite talent. If you evaluate well you can get by with developing players as long as the pipeline is full.

Signing only Sydir Mitchell in the 2023 class on the DL was borderline insane. And to follow that up with only 2 DT in 2024 puts you at a disadvantage headed into the SEC. 

Praying for a difference maker at DT from the portal is not a strategy you want to rely on.

Did Bo recruit any of those players? 

[marathon]

1 minute ago, codaxx said:

Did Bo recruit any of those players? 

If you are talking about Sydir Mitchell, January and Melvin Hills (who hopefully enrolls in June) I am not sure but I was giving Bo the benefit of the doubt….although I suspect Kyle Flood was heavily involved in the Mitchell recruitment.

[codaxx]

1 minute ago, marathon said:

If you are talking about Sydir Mitchell, January and Melvin Hills (who hopefully enrolls in June) I am not sure but I was giving Bo the benefit of the doubt….although I suspect Kyle Flood was heavily involved in the Mitchell recruitment.

I meant the DL that were in the post from Bobby

 

Defensive tackle (9) - Ford, Brown, Ridgeway, Sweat, Elliott (transfer), Graham, Collins, Coburn, Ojomo

[marathon]

8 minutes ago, codaxx said:

I meant the DL that were in the post from Bobby

 

Defensive tackle (9) - Ford, Brown, Ridgeway, Sweat, Elliott (transfer), Graham, Collins, Coburn, Ojomo

Pretty sure he was not responsible for those. Davis was at UT from 2011-2013 before returning in 2021.

I believe Malcom Brown and Ridgeway were the only 2 from that timeframe but their recruiting profiles don’t list Davis as their recruiter. Assuming it’s accurate it shows Oscar Giles recruited Brown and Bruce Chambers recruited Ridgeway.

 

[Bobby Burton]

1 hour ago, codaxx said:

To truly appreciate the disaster that was the 2019 class you need a full look at it.. 

Listed in order of highest rated to lowest

Bru - transfer

Owens - transfer

JWhitt

Floyd- medical

Smith- transfer

Johnson- transfer

Warren- transfer

Adimora- transfer

Gbenda

Liebrock- transfer

Washington - transfer

Shepard- transfer

Brown- medical

Rojo 

Sweat

Mpagi - medical

JOnes 

Lewis - transfer

Caldwell- transfer

Wiley- transfer

Tyler- transfer

Mitchell- transfer

Hopefully my memory was correct on that, but lets forget about development and just look at retention.  78.2% of the class transferred or had medical issues. It one thing to miss on guys that become program players (back-ups and special teams), it is another to see almost 80% just walk out the door

 

 

Just brutal.

[Han Soul Hole]

Jeebus... this is depressing to remember.  Well, here's to hope.  In Sark we trust!

[Wildewon]

@Bobby Burton You have Bru McCoy listed as an NFL player, he’s still playing college ball at Tennesee

[Wildewon]

29 minutes ago, Wildewon said:

@Bobby Burton You have Bru McCoy listed as an NFL player, he’s still playing college ball at Tennesee

Cam Rising is still playing college ball too

[Bobby Burton]

3 hours ago, Wildewon said:

@Bobby Burton You have Bru McCoy listed as an NFL player, he’s still playing college ball at Tennesee

Yes, they are anticipated to play pro ball. McCoy is in this year's draft and expected to be a top 200 pick.

[Wildewon]

49 minutes ago, Bobby Burton said:

Yes, they are anticipated to play pro ball. McCoy is in this year's draft and expected to be a top 200 pick.

No, he didn't declare, he’s playing at Tennessee in 2024.  

i guess it doesn't really matter either way, just seemed odd with this verbage

“To remove any ambiguity, I developed this retrospective solely on players who played in the NFL (does not include taxi/practice squad) and take into”

[goathumper]

6 hours ago, Lam Dinh said:

Great post, I've been thinking about what's an appropriate benchmark for knowing Texas is back in terms of elite talent development. Looks like the 25-35% NFL hit rate is the number to target and monitor.

Similarly, I also looked at the records of all other in-state major college football programs in that same 2011-2020 year time frame vs. # of NFL draft picks (only including players drafted, not un-drafted free agent signings). 

Takeaway: While Texas had more NFL picks than any other Texas college football program in those 10 years (despite being "down" overall as a program), this did not translate into a better on field product, with Texas having the second lowest win % during that time. Unsurprisingly, the moniker of "UT can't develop talent" was proven to be correct during this dark period of Texas football.

2011-2020	Wins	Losses	Win %	NFL Picks
Texas Tech	56	66	46%	27
Texas	70	59	54%	41
Baylor	78	48	62%	25
Houston	78	46	63%	17
TCU	80	46	63%	30
A&M	84	43	66%	31

 

This is great stuff thank you