OTF Premium Will Arch Manning Hit 4k Passing Yards? (Saturday AM)

[CJ Vogel]

I thought this was a really interesting question from @Jarveaux on a topic posted Friday afternoon.

Could Texas QB Arch Manning be the first quarterback in Texas history to reach 4,000 passing yards in a single season? Doing so would set a new single season passing record for The University of Texas, breaking Colt McCoy's 2008 season of 3,859 yards.

Given the length of the College Football Playoff schedule and the expectation/talent on roster currently, it is definitely within the realm of possibility. In fact, I believe it will happen.

The Longhorns could play anywhere from 12–16 games in 2025. Of course, I think I speak for everyone when I say playing only 12 games meant something went terribly wrong. But for the sake of the argument, let's look at the required passing numbers to hit the 4k mark by games played.

• 12 games: 333.3 YPG
• 13 games: 307.7 YPG
• 14 games: 285.7 YPG
• 15 games: 266.6 YPG
• 16 games: 250.0 YPG

Texas QB Quinn Ewers threw for an average of 289.9 passing yards per game in his 12 starts last year, totaling 3,472 yards. Given he missed UTSA and Mississippi State, two games where Arch Manning threw for a combined for 583 passing yards, it is fair to assume those numbers would have been comparable.

Meaning, a healthy Quinn Ewers gets to the 4,000 mark last year. So for Manning, it is definitely a possibility.

The University of Texas single season passing record should be on watch this fall.

So back to the original question in the article's title – Will Arch Manning Hit 4,000 Passing Yards?

The answer for me is simple. Yes. If the Texas QB remains healthy, there will be plenty of opportunity to run of the numbers and the length of the season will allow for Manning to eclipse the record set by the former Longhorn Legend. 

[CJ Vogel]

[CJ Vogel]

 

[Hashtag]

5k or bust

[CJ Vogel]

Sign me up for standing in the pocket and taking a hit. My favorite throw from 2024.

[NothinButDaHorns34]

I feel like the expectations for arch are becoming extravagant as the seasons gets closer. I just want to see him play a turnover free ball game against ohio state and we will go from there. 

[CJ Vogel]

Just now, Hashtag said:

5k or bust

To hit 5k ...

• 14 games: 357.14 YPG
• 15 games: 333.33 YPG
• 16 games: 312.5 YPG

[GetHooked]

2 minutes ago, CJ Vogel said:

I thought this was a really interesting question from @Jarveaux on a topic posted Friday afternoon.

Could Texas QB Arch Manning be the first quarterback in Texas history to reach 4,000 passing yards in a single season? Doing so would set a new single season passing record for The University of Texas, breaking Colt McCoy's 2008 season of 3,859 yards.

Given the length of the College Football Playoff schedule and the expectation/talent on roster currently, it is definitely within the realm of possibility. In fact, I believe it will happen.

The Longhorns could play anywhere from 12–16 games in 2025. Of course, I think I speak for everyone when I say playing only 12 games meant something went terribly wrong. But for the sake of the argument, let's look at the required passing numbers to hit the 4k mark by games played.

• 12 games: 333.3 YPG
• 13 games: 307.7 YPG
• 14 games: 285.7 YPG
• 15 games: 266.6 YPG
• 16 games: 250.0 YPG

Texas QB Quinn Ewers threw for an average of 289.9 passing yards per game in his 12 starts last year, totaling 3,472 yards. Given he missed UTSA and Mississippi State, two games where Arch Manning threw for a combined for 583 passing yards, it is fair to assume those numbers would have been comparable.

Meaning, a healthy Quinn Ewers gets to the 4,000 mark last year. So for Manning, it is definitely a possibility.

The University of Texas single season passing record should be on watch this fall.

So back to the original question in the article's title – Will Arch Manning Hit 4,000 Passing Yards?

The answer for me is simple. Yes. If the Texas QB remains healthy, there will be plenty of opportunity to run of the numbers and the length of the season will allow for Manning to eclipse the record set by the former Longhorn Legend. 

The only problem is that we are probably going to blow every body out meaning Sark will be trying to run the clock out in every game.

[CJ Vogel]

1 minute ago, GetHooked said:

The only problem is that we are probably going to blow every body out meaning Sark will be trying to run the clock out in every game.

Could be the biggest deterrent, no doubt. Ewers had four games in 2024 (excluding his injury game) where he threw for 202 yards or less.

[Hashtag]

4,000+ yard passers by year:

2024 - 7
2023 - 2
2022 - 8
2021- 9, including Bailey Zappe who threw for almost 6,000 yards
2020 - 2, COVID reduced games
2019 - 4, including two 5,000 yard passers
2018 - 3
2017 - 8
2016 - 8
2015 - 12, including one 5,000 yard passer
2014 - 4

 

So it is not uncommon to see 4,000 yard passers and will probably occour with 5+ considering the amount of potential games.

 

[ArizonaLonghorn]

9 minutes ago, CJ Vogel said:

The Longhorns could play anywhere from 12–16 games in 2025

Couldn't we play 17 games, like we almost did last year?

12 regular season + 1 conference championship game ... if we are outside the top 4, say 5-12 like last year, we could play 4 more games to reach the championship round. 

Right?  Or did I miss something?

Edited 8 hours ago by ArizonaLonghorn

[CJ Vogel]

1 minute ago, ArizonaLonghorn said:

Couldn't we play 17 games, like we almost did last year?

12 regular season + 1 conference playoff ... if we are outside the top 4, say 5-12 like last year, we could play 4 more games to reach the championship round. 

Right?  Or did I miss something.

Yes, it’s a possibility if Texas were to lose the SECCG and be seeded 5–12 in the CFP. 

[Red Five]

To me this is just asking "Will Arch stay healthy all year". Because if yes, then yes he will pass for 4k. If no then it's a matter of how much time he misses.

[Jerky]

49 minutes ago, CJ Vogel said:

Yes, it’s a possibility if Texas were to lose the SECCG and be seeded 5–12 in the CFP. 

 

51 minutes ago, ArizonaLonghorn said:

Couldn't we play 17 games, like we almost did last year?

12 regular season + 1 conference championship game ... if we are outside the top 4, say 5-12 like last year, we could play 4 more games to reach the championship round. 

Right?  Or did I miss something?

 

If 17 Games: 235.3 YPG or 4K Total

[CJ Vogel]

37 minutes ago, Jerky said:

 

 

If 17 Games: 235.3 YPG or 4K Total

Feels like it’s definitely a possibility 

[Bunk Moreland]

Quinn missed 2.5 games, was basically a ghost in 2-3 quarters every single game he played, and still got 3500 yards. Yes, Arch can absolutely get to 4000. My biggest concern is protection. If Sark has any concerns whatsoever about pass pro, I wonder if he turns into Coach Stephen and just runs the ball for the entire second half of games. We’ve seen it before.

[CJ Vogel]

1 hour ago, Bunk Moreland said:

Quinn missed 2.5 games, was basically a ghost in 2-3 quarters every single game he played, and still got 3500 yards. Yes, Arch can absolutely get to 4000. My biggest concern is protection. If Sark has any concerns whatsoever about pass pro, I wonder if he turns into Coach Stephen and just runs the ball for the entire second half of games. We’ve seen it before.

Couldn’t agree more!

[Jerky]

Best YPG Passing in a Season at Texas 

Colt averaged 297 passing yards over 13 games.

Quinn averaged 290 passing yards over 12 games.

Sam averaged 282 passing yards over 13 games.

[bourbasted]

If he does throw for 4k+ and we make the semis (at a minimum) again, is he the Heisman winner?

[thatdude2]

Yes, but does Mateer reach 4k? CJ got Mateer combining for 6k rushing and passing most likely.

[cochamps]

6 hours ago, CJ Vogel said:

Feels like it’s definitely a possibility 

Feels like a done deal.  FIFY  😀