You’re basing this 9-3 premise on a sample size of two. And you’re not considering this will be the first season the SEC plays 9 conference games - which guarantees an additional 8 losses on the collective record of SEC teams. In addition, there are now new rules making it easier for Notre Dame to make the Playoffs, and the guaranteed Playoff spot for the P4 conference champs has returned.
The silliness of the first two seasons of the Playoff selection process / committee won’t move forward in perpetuity. There won’t be another season of Tulane and James Madison making the playoffs while Notre Dame and Texas watch from home as two of the first three teams to miss the cut.
The new rules will mean 2026 season will be different. This is pretty simple:
Rank the top 5 teams in the SEC: Let’s use a ballpark consensus of Georgia, Texas, LSU, OU, and Ole Miss. Now, look at the schedules for each of these teams in 2026. There’s a very good case to be made that only Georgia will win 10 or more games. Maybe Texas. That means the 3rd place team in the SEC will be 9-3, as will the 4th place team. At best.
Rank the top 5 teams in the Big Ten: Oregon, Ohio St, Indiana, USC, Michigan. Again, look at the schedules of all 5 teams. There’s a very good case that only two of these teams will finish with 10 wins. And (again), that means the 3rd place team in the Big Ten will be a 9-3 record, and very likely for the 4th place team too.
This is the impact of adding an additional conference game to the SEC schedules, while the Big Ten already does.
Combine this with the exponentially increasing gap in team quality between the SEC & Big Ten over the other P4 conferences (ACC and Big 12), and it will be inevitable that 9-3 records from the SEC and Big Ten will be awarded Playoff spots over the 10-win records of teams from lesser conferences.
This is why I posit that two of the most consequential games of the season are LSU v Clemson, and Ole Miss v Louisville in week #1. Both Ole Miss and LSU will likely lose 3 SEC conference games this season, but both will hammer top quartile ACC programs in Week #1. The empirical evidence will show the ACC is a one team Playoff conference (especially after Notre Dame beats both SMU and Miami as well).
As long as the ACC remains a 1-Playoff team conference, that means the SEC & Big Ten will get a collective 7-8 Playoff spots. And since we discussed above that both the 3rd place and 4th place teams in both the SEC and Big Ten will likely be 3-loss teams this season, the simple math says you’ll get at least TWO at-large teams into the Playoffs with 3 losses this season.
It is difficult for me to envision a scenario where isn’t a 3-loss at large spot in the 2026 Playoffs (probably at least two spots).