Playoff Chances??

[OTFBrandon]

(This is all eye test based, no mathematics are involved lol) Okay obviously Texas will most likely not get into the playoffs this season after the chaos didn't go our way, but we still just maybe might have a sliver of hope to get in after conference championship week. I know this is a shot in the dark, but say Alabama and BYU both lose next week, that virtually opens up one more at large bid assuming Virginia can beat 7-5 Duke to become ACC champions and get a bid for the playoffs. Also if Ohio State beats Indiana it would only boost our chances to be in. So, this in my opinion would be the seeding after next week, 1. OSU 2. Georgia 3. Indiana 4. Texas Tech 5. Oregon 6. A&M 7. Ole Miss 8. Oklahoma 9. Norte Dame 10. Texas 11. Virginia 12. North Texas. Some articles say even if Alabama (10-3) loses they most likely get the last nod over BYU (11-2), Miami (10-2), Vanderbilt (10-2), and Texas (9-3). In a way I can see how the committee has every right not to put us in after finishing 9-3, but like coach Sark said it would be a disservice to the sport. It would virtually mean wins and losses are the most important aspect when it comes to the playoff. Texas in my honest opinion would dog walk every team competing for the final spot. But, because they have more losses the committee and the CFB world doesn't seem to believe so. Anyways like I said it's a shot in the dark, probably wont happen. Just glad we finished the regular season on a good note and hopefully smother whoever we get scheduled to play in our bowl game. Hook'Em.

[Longhornmd]

If Georgia beats Alabama and Tech beats BYU only one spot would be open.  Who does the committee like: Vanderbilt, Utah, BYU, Miami or Texas.  Each team has had a win over a playoff team in contention.  If BYU loses to Tech they only have Utah and Utah would only have BYU(doubt Cincinnati would be ranked).  Vanderbilt and Miami are the two teams likely to knock Texas out.  Vanderbilt would only have Tennessee and maybe Mizzou if they are ranked and Miami would only have ND.  However, Vanderbilt is getting much love with Pavia and is possible heisman winner.  With the way Vanderbilt is playing and Pavia in the heisman talk I would not doubt Vanderbilt gets the last spot even though Texas beat them.  Just like 2008 with OU playing in Big 12 Championship even though Texas beat them.

[whereiend]

I think the only chance is if committee ranks us ahead of OU and ND, which they ought to do given our superior wins and head to head domination of OU.

If that doesn't happen this week then we won't be in the playoff, and CDC needs to immediately cancel all difficult OOC games on future schedules.

Edited yesterday at 05:44 PM by whereiend

[SchoolColors]

[Longhornmd]

I think ND should be forced to join a conference.  Otherwise they are no different than a non power 4 schedule wise that gets in just because they won their conference or beat 1 playoff contender.
It should be setup that the top 12 or 16 in the future get in.  No conference champion gets in that is not ranked in top 12 or 16. 
If you don’t fix that no team will play a marque matchup in the preseason. I think they should do away with conference championship all together.

[LonghornLegends]

3 minutes ago, SchoolColors said:

1000% just go all in for next year 

[SueVide]

Nobody cares but here's my biased rankings:

1. Ohio State (11-0)

2. Georgia (10-1)

3. Indiana (11-0)

4. Oregon (10-1)

5. Ole Miss (10-1)

6. Texas Tech (10-1)

7. Notre Dame (10-2)

8. Texas A&M (11-1)

9. Texas (9-3)

10. Oklahoma (10-2)

11. Alabama (10-2)

12. BYU (10-1) 

 

Edited yesterday at 05:55 PM by SueVide

[SB21]

I just don’t understand how you look at Vandy next to us and ignore the head to head result…. They beat #22 Tennessee to end the year and we beat the #3 team if you are using recency views. Can’t tell me them beating Tenn was more impressive than us beating AnM, Oklahoma and Vandy lol but whatever. Nothing we can do now

[SueVide]

36 minutes ago, SB21 said:

I just don’t understand how you look at Vandy next to us and ignore the head to head result…. They beat #22 Tennessee to end the year and we beat the #3 team if you are using recency views. Can’t tell me them beating Tenn was more impressive than us beating AnM, Oklahoma and Vandy lol but whatever. Nothing we can do now

And they lost to Alabama by 16! Alabama lost to a Florida State team by 14. The Florida State team who just got smoked by Florida. 

[SB21]

Yeah. There just isn’t a way I see any playoff committee looking at Vandy and us and then taking them over us even though we beat them “because they only lost 2 games” and we lost 3…… when 2 of the 3 are arguably the two best teams in the nation. 

[whereiend]

Vandy won't make the field, but most do believe OU will, which I think is even more ridiculous.

[Red Five]

The only reason to include OU and not Texas is "Because they went 10-2 and Texas went 9-3". Because if you're basing it on who is the better team, well, I think that was settled fairly conclusively.

So if the criteria is simply wins and losses regardless of anything else, the committee should admit to that. 

[Kevin C]

38 minutes ago, Red Five said:

The only reason to include OU and not Texas is "Because they went 10-2 and Texas went 9-3". Because if you're basing it on who is the better team, well, I think that was settled fairly conclusively.

So if the criteria is simply wins and losses regardless of anything else, the committee should admit to that. 

We didn't just beat OU, we dominated them.  Then we dominated A&M in the final 30 mins 24-7, a team that many were arguing is #1 going into the game.  I never thought A&M was better than #3 but the reality is we beat 3 teams who were all ranked top 10 at the time we played them.  No-one has won 3 top 10 games in past 5 years.  Committee putting way too much emphasis on 2 losses to teams ranked #1 and #3 in country.  At most, those both should count as .5 compared to losses by Miami (2 unranked teams).  Need to put much more emphasis on great wins.  

[jake_don]

Regarding the potential of an Alabama loss in the SECCG, the committee has consistently stated that teams will not be penalized from losing a CCG (as they shouldn't). 

[HookemTexas]

[CHorn427]

On 11/30/2025 at 11:40 AM, Longhornmd said:

If Georgia beats Alabama and Tech beats BYU only one spot would be open.  Who does the committee like: Vanderbilt, Utah, BYU, Miami or Texas.  Each team has had a win over a playoff team in contention.  If BYU loses to Tech they only have Utah and Utah would only have BYU(doubt Cincinnati would be ranked).  Vanderbilt and Miami are the two teams likely to knock Texas out.  Vanderbilt would only have Tennessee and maybe Mizzou if they are ranked and Miami would only have ND.  However, Vanderbilt is getting much love with Pavia and is possible heisman winner.  With the way Vanderbilt is playing and Pavia in the heisman talk I would not doubt Vanderbilt gets the last spot even though Texas beat them.  Just like 2008 with OU playing in Big 12 Championship even though Texas beat them.

Bama pretty much has to be a lock. As Josh Pate put it, Bama is the #1 seed in the SEC. If the CFP excludes the SEC #1 seed based on the outcomes of a conference championship game, the SEC would go nuclear. 
 

Add to that- it would be the second year in a row leaving pre-eminent SEC darling Bama out (after much moaning by the SEC last year). The SEC would go thermonuclear. 

[Burnt Orange Horn]

25 minutes ago, jake_don said:

Regarding the potential of an Alabama loss in the SECCG, the committee has consistently stated that teams will not be penalized from losing a CCG (as they shouldn't). 

So just OOC loses early in the year should be penalized??  🤷🏻‍♂️

[jake_don]

47 minutes ago, Burnt Orange Horn said:

So just OOC loses early in the year should be penalized??  🤷🏻‍♂️

Don't shoot the messenger I'm not saying I agree with it but it's the fact of the situation.

[Longhornmd]

56 minutes ago, CHorn427 said:

Bama pretty much has to be a lock. As Josh Pate put it, Bama is the #1 seed in the SEC. If the CFP excludes the SEC #1 seed based on the outcomes of a conference championship game, the SEC would go nuclear. 
 

Add to that- it would be the second year in a row leaving pre-eminent SEC darling Bama out (after much moaning by the SEC last year). The SEC would go thermonuclear. 

The playoff committee has a mess.  Ole Miss lost their coach are they a playoff team now?  They kept FSU out with undefeated season and conference championship just because they lost their QB.  Should Bama lose is it fair to not punish Bama and yet punish Texas for losing to OSU.  Both have a bad loss and Florida did beat FSU.  If Georgia wins by two scores how can Bama be #1 seed in SEC.  Georgia is playing on a high level now.  If the committee wanted to pick a darling Vanderbilt right now with Pavia is the media story.  Pavia will probably be in NY for the heisman and the committee could justify taking them.  I don’t agree with Bama or Vanderbilt if you did that what is the justification for leaving Texas out despite going 3-2 against top playoff teams.  I also don’t believe Texas is a playoff team this year to inconsistent and you don’t know what team will show up. 

[jkates]

I think TEXAS has a 1 in 50 chance of making it into the playoffs. 

[CHorn427]

9 minutes ago, Longhornmd said:

The playoff committee has a mess.  Ole Miss lost their coach are they a playoff team now?  They kept FSU out with undefeated season and conference championship just because they lost their QB.  Should Bama lose is it fair to not punish Bama and yet punish Texas for losing to OSU.  Both have a bad loss and Florida did beat FSU.  If Georgia wins by two scores how can Bama be #1 seed in SEC.  Georgia is playing on a high level now.  If the committee wanted to pick a darling Vanderbilt right now with Pavia is the media story.  Pavia will probably be in NY for the heisman and the committee could justify taking them.  I don’t agree with Bama or Vanderbilt if you did that what is the justification for leaving Texas out despite going 3-2 against top playoff teams.  I also don’t believe Texas is a playoff team this year to inconsistent and you don’t know what team will show up. 

The difference between Ole Miss and FSU is that FSU played a game without their QB and PROVED they were not as good without him.

Right now, it’s purely an assumption that Ole Miss is worse without Kiffin. However valid that assumption may seem or prove, it’s still purely an assumption. Which is materially different than the FSU case

[Longhornmd]

5 minutes ago, CHorn427 said:

The difference between Ole Miss and FSU is that FSU played a game without their QB and PROVED they were not as good without him.

Right now, it’s purely an assumption that Ole Miss is worse without Kiffin. However valid that assumption may seem or prove, it’s still purely an assumption. Which is materially different than the FSU case

Yes the QB true freshman played poorly but they still won.  You think Ole Miss is the same team without Kiffin?  

[CHorn427]

16 minutes ago, Longhornmd said:

Yes the QB true freshman played poorly but they still won.  You think Ole Miss is the same team without Kiffin?  

I think they will be more competitive than 2023 FSU with a backup QB. That team would have gotten curb stomped.

As Bobby Bowden once said, it’s more about the Jimmies and the Joes. Ole Miss may be deficient in the X’s and O’s. But they still have the same Jimmies and Joes, and I’m sure they will be competitive.

But again, bottom line all we have is conjecture. In 2023 we literally had evidence FSU didn’t look good and could barely move the ball against a mediocre Louisville team. 
 

It would have been much more controversial if FSU’s QB went down late in that Louisville game after a resounding win and we didn’t get the on field evidence of the dip in play

[charlie990]

I still think they'd throw Alabama in, atleast in the past they viewed the conference championship game as extra credit and aren't gonna ding them very hard.

Then, again if they don't view the Ohio State game as extra credit ADs everywhere are gonna reevaluate those big OOC games. 

[Longhornmd]

3 minutes ago, CHorn427 said:

I think they will be more competitive than 2023 FSU with a backup QB. That team would have gotten curb stomped.

As Bobby Bowden once said, it’s more about the Jimmies and the Joes. Ole Miss may be deficient in the X’s and O’s. But they still have the same Jimmies and Joes, and I’m sure they will be competitive.

But again, bottom line all we have is conjecture. In 2023 we literally had evidence FSU didn’t look good and could barely move the ball against a mediocre Louisville team. 
 

It would have been much more controversial if FSU’s QB went down late in that Louisville game after a resounding win and we didn’t get the on field evidence of the dip in play

I don’t think one game is evidence. Yes FSU looked bad but you can’t speculate that they would be destroyed in the playoffs.  Oregon looked good last year until they played OSU. FSU may or may not have won a playoff game.

Ole Miss is losing their offensive identity. Pete Golding has never been a head coach. While Ole Miss has dudes can Pete Golding manage the game to win?

Doesn’t matter if you have dudes if you don’t have the right coach look what happens.  Look at Franklin can’t win the big game even with all the dudes he had.

just saying Ole Miss is not the same team without Kiffin.  Doesn’t mean Ole Miss can’t win but the dynamics does change a little.