OTF Premium Checklist to help Texas prepare for a must-win game against No. 7 Ole Miss

[Jeff Howe]

Steve Sarkisian faces the toughest on-field decision of his six-season tenure as No. 19 Texas welcomes No. 7 Ole Miss to DKR on Saturday (6:30 p.m., ABC).

Will he continue to ride with Arch Manning as the Longhorns’ starting quarterback, hoping Manning can reverse course and stop his precipitous slide?

Or will Sarkisian pull the plug and give KJ Lacey an opportunity to spark the offense?

Other than resolving the quarterback conundrum, there are things Sarkisian and the Texas (4-2, 1-2 SEC) coaches can do to avoid the program’s first three-game losing streak since the Longhorns dropped five in a row late in Sarkisian’s 2021 debut.

Here’s the checklist Texas must complete to stop the bleeding and get a much-needed win over the Rebels.

— Pick an offensive identity and ride with it

Sarkisian wants to be creative while being true to who the Longhorns are as an offense. That sounds good, in theory, but the offense needs consistency to be consistent.

Between the quarterback situation, the offensive line coming off a forgettable performance in last Saturday’s 27-24 loss to Florida and Hollywood Smothers dealing with an apparent shoulder injury, Sarkisian’s hand could be forced when deciding how to attack Pete Golding’s defense.

While there are times when the running game clicks, specifically when Sarkisian relies on duo and inside zone calls to get the job done, it’s not consistent enough to count on it when it matters. If Smothers and/or Derrek Cooper can’t go against Ole Miss (5-1, 3-1), Sarkisian might not have a choice but to lean into being an offense that operates almost exclusively out of 10 and 11 personnel.

Especially if Raleek Brown is the only reliable runner available, getting the ball to Jermaine Bishop Jr. and Ryan Wingo in space with schemed-up deep shots for Cam Coleman and Emmett Mosley V sprinkled in might be the most effective means of moving the chains and setting up scoring opportunities.

Whether it’s that or something else, Sarkisian can’t afford to waste possessions trying to figure out what might work. Be aggressive by focusing on the few things the offense has shown it can execute and, if the results are good, don’t pivot until Golding adjusts.

— Have a plan to deal with Will Echoles

According to Pro Football Focus, the 6-foot-3-inch, 315-pound future NFL draft pick has logged 199 of his 275 snaps in the B gap. That means Brandon Baker and Dylan Sikorski will have their hands full.

Echoles’ 14 total pressures (according to PFF) are tied for the fourth-most among SEC interior defensive linemen. He leads the Ole Miss defensive line with eight stops (a solo tackle that constitutes a failure for the offense) and his 81.6 season-long PFF grade against the run is the 11th-best among SEC defensive linemen.

Echoles is a game-wrecker. Considering the damage David Stone and Jayden Jackson did two weeks ago in Texas’ loss to Oklahoma in the Red River Shootout, the offense’s fate could hinge on how the interior of the Longhorn offensive line handles Echoles.

— Prioritize communication and execution in coverage

If Colin Simmons can’t go, Will Muschamp will have to take risks to put pressure on Trinidad Chambliss. When he turns up the heat, the Texas secondary will be vulnerable, meaning one-on-one battles must be won on the back end to give the Longhorns a chance.

Only three of Chambliss’ 11 scrambles this season (according to PFF) have come from a clean pocket. Instead of bailing early and trying to make something happen when he feels the rush, Chambliss is executing at a high level against pressure, especially when he’s been blitzed.

According to PFF, Chambliss has been blitzed on 36.4 percent of his dropbacks this season. Against the blitz, Chambliss is completing 62.7 percent of his passes (47-for-75) for 608 yards with six touchdowns and one interception.

Chambliss has only been sacked twice on blitzes this season, resulting in an exceptional 8.7 percent pressure-to-sack rate (Manning, by contrast, has a 29.7 percent pressure-to-sack rate against the blitz this season, according to PFF).

This week, coverage busts will lead to catastrophic mistakes. Whether Muschamp has his secondary playing man or zone coverage, communication and execution must be the best they’ve been all season to avoid getting burned by one of the nation’s top playmaking quarterbacks.

— Prepare to maximize the “Middle 8”

Losing the last four minutes of the first half and the first four minutes of the second half cost the Longhorns dearly against Oklahoma and Florida.

Settling for a field goal on their last drive of the first half against the Sooners was bad enough, but the offense went three-and-out to open the third quarter and Oklahoma used a 42-yard run by Lloyd Avant to set up a 53-yard field goal by Tate Sandell, making it a one-score game.

Sarkisian’s fourth-and-1 gamble backfired against the Gators, putting the Texas defense on a short field with 2:44 remaining until halftime. Florida converted a fourth-and-12 on its ensuing 9-play, 49-yard drive, cutting the Longhorns’ lead to a touchdown (17-10) with 18 seconds remaining in the half. The Gators got the ball to start the third quarter and went 3-for-3 on third down, covering 69 yards in 15 plays and milking more than eight minutes off the clock to tie the game.

Texas has been outscored 37-14 in the second half of each of its last two games. The momentum in both losses started mounting for the opponent when the Longhorns failed to end the first half or start the second half on the right foot, a trend that must be reversed to give themselves a shot at knocking off the Rebels.

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[Jeff Howe]

Since Football Outsiders shut down, there's no precise way to track "Middle 8" statistics. However, as you'd probably expect, that stretch of the game hasn't been good for Texas.

 

[4thandFive]

Plan A- Start Lacey and run the ball 

[Jared Driggers]

No confidence that Sark comes out with an effective gameplan for 60 minutes. Script will probably be awesome and then we won’t score until we go hurry up down late in the 4th. 

[liveattheoasis]

Run Arch 12-15 times on zone reads and RPOs.

We need him to derive confidence from being physical.

[Andrew Scott]

I’m afraid Ole Miss has dawgs up front and Arch will hold onto ball too long and Sark makes a change to KJ. Feels like it’s coming. 

[MitchMitchell-Hook-Em]

Not sure I understand how KJ Lacey would be any better behind the same porous OL?  If Sark doesn't adjust the line calls or go to a quick passing game (like Florida did), we will lose more games.  No matter the QB. 

.

[Alex Butler]

As I read this…good luck defending this ole Miss offense especially with no Collin Simmons. Offensively we need to pray for a miracle. Got it…somehow we’re still favored. If I was a gambler I’d out all my chips on ole Miss straight up. 

[texas_ex]

At this point - put Lacey in so people can shut up and realize it’s not Arch- and it’s OC Sark. 

This week has really made me upset to be a Longhorn. Sarks presser was the same old BS. He failed Arch incredibly. 

[Rockin TL]

My checklist to help me prepare for Texas must-win game Saturday

 

1) Miller Lite(1st half)
2) Buffalo Trace(2nd half)
3) Gummies(Postgame cooldown)
4) 2 ibuprofen, 1 tylenol(Recovery)
5) Pedialyte(Recovery)

😄

Edited 15 hours ago by Rockin TL

[AusMOJO]

If Smothers is out and Cooper is out still. I'd rather just see more of Terry and Simon. Brown is an okay back but he's certainly not what I thought he would be. Both RB's have been pretty disappointing for me.

They have 600 or so yards between the two of them and 8 TD's. 

Anyway, my expectations for the game are to have none and hope for the best. That's where I'm at since the Ohio State game. 

[watty7796]

Put in a bigger center and run the ball.  Dont fumble.  Eat the clock.

[HookedOnTF]

Sark burning midnight oil on Petey

Source: TikTok https://share.google/OGrvluj5wcNXEsZ1J

 

[Crusher Crew]

@Jeff HoweWhy don't we see more of Michael Terry?  Dude can ball.  Does Jeluke not like him that much?  

[selfdm]

The difference in blitz performance between Chambliss and Arch is wild. Also, may God help us containing echols

[Roy Hinojosa]

There's no time like the present, but I think Sark rides with Arch. Now it's up to the team to pick up their play, and stop the bleeding.

[Cajunhorn]

Did James Simon forget how to play running back or something?

[Jerky]

Good stuff Jeff. Thx. Will be interesting to see how it all unfolds. 

 

I hate that our checklist does not include a healthy Colin Simmons considering we are going up against a formidable offense with stars at QB and RB.

We need a sudden, disruptive presence. Spence may need to transition to play the Colin Simmons pass rush role. If not Spence, then Vasek and Wesley rotating to stay fresh. Both need to play sound. No hero ball.  Ole Miss QB and RB can make them pay.

If Smothers and Cooper are injured it is time to give Simon some carries. Raleek will need help. 

We really need to run the ball and shorten the game. But we have not done that well. Can we do it vs Ole Miss? Doubtful so we very likely need to pass more to pre snap reads on first down or do real RPOs.

Teams are trying to take away Coleman. TEs have not been consistent, difference makers in the passing game.

Agree, we may need to spread Ole Miss out more often by inserting Bishop. Bishop has not gotten many targets but he has delivered at a high rate (10 catches for 120yds and 1 TD on just 14 targets).

Raleek can't hold up well enough and consistently enough as a blocker vs the bigger, athletic defenders. Spread Ole Miss out and you can lighten the box. Then see if we can get RB Brown the ball in space.

I'm all for good scheme to get the favorable matchups. But sometimes you can't scheme it up.  You may need to lean on your personnel advantages even if they know it is coming. 

The OL is not dependable in short yardage. Baker or Robertson vs Echols is not a good matchup for Texas. By using Echols in the B gap Ole Miss often avoids a double team.

TE Townsend could be used as an HB move blocker in the run game to open up a hole for our RB in short yardage. Could also use a jumbo set. 

Again, I would love to shorten the game and possess the ball for long scoring drives with some good rushing but that is not something we have done well other than the 4th Q vs Ohio St. And that was 4 downs to get 10yds. Maybe we can use the quick pass in spread to somewhat accomplish this goal. 

Hopefully we avoid 3 and outs and avoid losing the turnover battle again.  Our defense will need all the help it can get without Colin vs this potent offense.

Texas may need to score 30+ points to win. 

[4thandFive]

The problem with Coleman is there are plays where he’s wide open…Arch just doesn’t see him.