Saturday: Learning from Previous Recruiting Rankings

[Bobby Burton]

Let's look at where players were ranked and what we thought of them coming out of high school.

Class of 2021

TE, JT Sanders, Denton Ryan

Most accurate recruiting ranking in retrospect: On3: no. 60 national, no. 9 player in Texas; in every other ranking, Sanders was rated as a five star

- Sanders was a man among boys in high school. But he rarely played a true tight end; instead, he frequently lined up flanked outside for jump ball opportunities. He also played some defense. Ultimately, he eschewed defense altogether and focused on learning to play a more conventional, NFL-style tight end for the Horns.

Takeaway for me: Good player but not an overwhelming athlete. Often "out-physical'ed" opponents in high school which doesn't always translate in the college game and beyond. Still, the overall athleticism and play-making ability were rare for a player his size. Not a five star but a definite high four star was the correct call.

WR, Xavier Worthy, Fresno Central East

Most accurate recruiting ranking in retrospect: On3, ESPN, and Rivals already had him pegged as a top player in the country; On3 was the highest at no. 18, while 247 was the lowest at no. 99. In actuality, this will likely end up as a win for the On3 Consensus ranking which had him at No. 56 overall, which is just about where most NFL draftniks think he will land.

- Worthy's speed was his calling card. He initially signed with Michigan but the Wolverines could not get him in to school as a mid-year enrollee. Steve Sarkisian, who was fresh on the job at Texas after recruiting Worthy while at Alabama, found out about it, and immediately made Worthy a priority. Worthy's top-end speed and impressive agility - his ability to start and stop on a dime - made him an elite recruit and both remain his calling card to this day.

Takeaway for me: Several players each year have legit big-time speed. But what else do they have? Can they move laterally, do they play tough, do they compete within the game? It can't just be straight speed.

RB, Jonathon Brooks, Halletsville 

Most accurate recruiting ranking in retrospect: On3: no. 114 national, no. 8 running back, no. 17 player in the state of Texas; the next highest ranking was the no. 41 player in the state, according to Rivals.

- When Brooks first committed to Texas, half a dozen analysts thought Texas had lost their minds. Houston was the only other school that had offered. While a lot of people were busy pontificating that then-Texas RB coach Stan Drayton had lost his marbles, I watched the tape. I immediately took to the boards to defend the offer, vehemently. This all happened well before Brooks' incredible senior season, where he was the singular force behind Halletsville state championship appearance. He's been under-rated his entire career. A small school Texas boy who has proved them all wrong.

Takeaway for me: The film doesn't lie. And it doesn't matter who else has offered, or when they offered, if you like the tape.

DL, Byron Murphy, DeSoto

Most accurate recruiting ranking in retrospect: There wasn't one. The highest Murphy ranked from any group in-state was No. 45 at 247Sports. But that's a far, far cry from where he will be drafted.

- Murphy was the lesser-known and more lightly-recruited of a dominant duo at DeSoto, playing alongside Shemar Turner who inked with Texas A&M. Murphy flipped from Baylor to Texas relatively late in the recruiting process, yet still before Tom Herman had been fired. Murphy is a former middle school running back who just kept getting bigger and bigger. He also earned his associates degree (60 hours of college credit) while still in high school.

Takeaway for me: Never overlook or underestimate one of a pair of strong defensive linemen. Think of the combo of Colin Simmons and Alex January in this recruiting class. Also never underestimate desire and the willingness to go the extra mile. Perhaps Murphy's associates degree should have told us a little more about who he was on the inside.

WR, Adonai Mitchell, Antioch (Tenn.) Cane Ridge

Most accurate recruiting ranking in retrospect: Clearly, On3 had a better beed on this one. On3 was the only staff to mention him as a national recruit, ranking him at no. 105 overall.

- Mitchell started his high school career in Fort Bend ISD. While there, the previous Texas staff had decided not to recruit him; they didn't think he was fast enough. But his body control and catch radius were outstanding, and his speed was clearly better than they thought. He signed with Georgia and won two national championships before transferring to Texas and returning to the College Football Playoffs.

Takeaway for me: If a receiver isn't a flyer, but still runs in the 4.5s, the prospect needs agility, a wide catch radius, and the penchant for making the contested catch. It helps if they know how to create separation with their body, too.

 

Class of 2020

LB Jaylan Ford, Frisco Lone State

Most accurate recruiting ranking in retrospect: As with Murphy, no one was particularly close. ESPN was the worst, ranking Ford the no. 160 player in the state of Texas.

- Like Murphy, Ford was a relatively late flip in the recruiting process, this time over Utah. Ford had long arms, a good motor and was clearly a smart player coming out of high school. But he was more of a ball of clay that needed to be molded. Of course, that's what Texas did. Ford ended up leading the Longhorns in tackles in back-to-back years.

Takeaway for me: Sometimes linebacker is more about prototype and then how well they develop. Ford "developed" into a good linebacker, but he always had the frame and mental make-up for the position.

 

Class of 2019

WR, Jordan Whittington Cuero

Most accurate recruiting ranking in retrospect: Probably none of them. Every single service ranked Whittington among the top 60 players in the country. Even though he was a terrific player for Texas, it was mostly as a role player and never a focal point, which would have been more indicative of a lofty national rating.

- Whittington was a do-it-all player for Cuero. Running back, receiver, defensive back, etc. He literally could do it all, and did, helping Cuero to the state championship in what will remain one of the best single game performances you will ever see in high school. As a recruit, some college coaches thought he might have been a better safety than offensive player. But Whittington really didn't want to hear about defense during his recruitment. Could Whittington have somehow been a better answer for Texas and the NFL at safety than receiver? Probably so but he would have had to stay healthy.

Takeaway for me: Players who are better situated for one side of the ball than the other should probably be graded for the side of the ball they want to play on.

DL, T'Vondre Sweat, Huntsville

Most accurate recruiting ranking in retrospect: I'll go with 247Sports even though they weren't really correct., ranking him as the no. 48 player in the state. They were just so much better than everyone else. The next highest ranking for Sweat? The no. 94 player in the state, according to ESPN.

- I was working with Horns247 at the time. EJ Holland was the recruiting analyst for the site, and this is one EJ deserves heavy credit for. I asked EJ who the best prospect he saw that year in person was. Without hesitation, he said Sweat. But Sweat wasn't just a three star, he was actually the lowest rated recruit in the entire Texas class, according to the On3 Consensus. Hats off to EJ who has never actually been in the rankings process at any of his stops while covering recruiting.

Takeaway for me: Listen to people who go see players in person and mention a player as the best they've seen. It has happened to me a couple of other times to me as well - once with Gerry Hamilton and Earl Thomas. Another came from a writer who worked for us in the state of Georgia. He said he would rate Calvin Johnson the best player in the country if it were up to him. He was right. But we didn't even make Johnson a five star because he ran a 4.55 40-yard dash at some camp.

 

Class of 2018

OL, Christian Jones, Cy Woods

Most accurate recruiting ranking in retrospect: 247Sports as the No. 77 player in the state. Rivals and ESPN had him outside the top 100 in the state.

- Jones will be the 9th recruit in the 2018 class to end up making a roster in the NFL, a class that was ranked no. 3 in the country. With nine NFL players, that lofty class ranking wasn't far off. However, the individual rankings weren't exactly spot on as Jones' ranking can attest. Jones will make two of the bottom four recruits in the class of 2018 who will end up being NFL players. The other? Cameron Dicker.

Takeaway for me: Jones was recruited to Texas primarily by then-assistant Corby Meekins. Meekins was a former high school coach from the area. Meekins went out on a limb here. He liked Jones' mental make-up and athleticism. Jones was a former soccer goalie and only started playing football in high school. My takeaway? When a former high school coach takes a guy from near his area, pay closer attention. See Jeff Traylor and East Texas.

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[therustler]

Good stuff @Bobby Burton! 🤘🏽

[TripsLeft]

What are your thoughts, @Bobby Burton about the recent dramatic changes in On3 rankings?  I can't recall such a big change in rankings.  Do you agree with the consensus opinion that On3 has lost its edge on recruit analysis over the past year?  Or do you think it's a pretty fair/legitimate reassessment?

[TeeShirtHorn]

Great look back at the rankings. Thanks @Bobby Burton!

 

Edited February 10 by TeeShirtHorn

[GoHorns1]

Trust the Development Process

[TexasMDcoach]

I think Jordan Whittington's ranking coming out of high school was spot on and agree his state championship was the best individual game I have ever seen by a player (MVP on offense and defense).  Your point about choosing the wrong position is spot on as he likely would be elite as a safety with his attributes but was  a "tweener" on the offensive side of the ball.  He shined straight out of the blocks his freshmen year in the little time he played before the injury bug robbed him dearly and then ultimately he became the consummate warrior and did all the dirty work to help the offense prosper .  I will not be surprised if he makes it on an NFL roster as a jack of all trades/utility and special teams player. 

Edited February 10 by TexasMDcoach

[HookemDTX]

1 hour ago, TripsLeft said:

What are your thoughts, @Bobby Burton about the recent dramatic changes in On3 rankings?  I can't recall such a big change in rankings.  Do you agree with the consensus opinion that On3 has lost its edge on recruit analysis over the past year?  Or do you think it's a pretty fair/legitimate reassessment?

Username and question are On3. Welcome.

Edited February 10 by HookemDTX

[Bobby Burton]

1 hour ago, TripsLeft said:

What are your thoughts, @Bobby Burton about the recent dramatic changes in On3 rankings?  I can't recall such a big change in rankings.  Do you agree with the consensus opinion that On3 has lost its edge on recruit analysis over the past year?  Or do you think it's a pretty fair/legitimate reassessment?

I think it’s too early to judge recruiting rankings. Hindsight is what will determine who was right and who was wrong. I disagree with them often, particularly in the state of Texas. I feel like they overcompensate, they overthink things.

Individually, I also have a hard time believing Ryan Wingo is rated as low as he is by On3. 

[Bobby Burton]

53 minutes ago, TexasMDcoach said:

I think Jordan Whittington's ranking coming out of high school was spot on and agree his state championship was the best individual game I have ever seen by a player (MVP on offense and defense).  Your point about choosing the wrong position is spot on as he likely would be elite as a safety with his attributes but was  a "tweener" on the offensive side of the ball.  He shined straight out of the blocks his freshmen year in the little time he played before the injury bug robbed him dearly and then ultimately he became the consummate warrior and did all the dirty work to help the offense prosper .  I will not be surprised if he makes it on an NFL roster as a jack of all trades/utility and special teams player. 

The only thing about safety is that it would have probably taken an even greater toll on his body. 

[TexasMDcoach]

1 hour ago, Bobby Burton said:

The only thing about safety is that it would have probably taken an even greater toll on his body. 

True. You are right but I wonder had he gone that route would his pro potential been much higher as I see him as a WR tweener at the pro level. He may prove me wrong though if he can catch on somewhere and catch fire as a slot. 

[Bobby Burton]

4 hours ago, TexasMDcoach said:

True. You are right but I wonder had he gone that route would his pro potential been much higher as I see him as a WR tweener at the pro level. He may prove me wrong though if he can catch on somewhere and catch fire as a slot. 

I think so. And that was partly the point of my writing that. He has more of a safety build IMO. 

[cochamps]

1 hour ago, Bobby Burton said:

I think so. And that was partly the point of my writing that. He has more of a safety build IMO. 

My takeaway from Whitt is "injuries can & do rob athleticism".  The problem there is that it is next to impossible to predict where they strike.  I didn't really see his frame as one that would necessarily be injury prone.

[Quinncent McManning, Jr.]

I love this subject.  Clearly it is impossible to predict with 100%, but there are enough clues for the recruiting services to make gradual changes.  For example, there should not be 20+ WRs in the national top 100 ranking.  Large frame athletic EDGEs should be higher ranked as they pan out and get drafter at higher rates.  The truly hard ones are OL and DL as there frequently needs more time for development to determine which linemen are draft candidates.   Then there are late growth spurts and kids that only recently transitioned to football (Mike Evans from basketball for example).

What would be interesting would be consider what a person involved in the rankings really thought ranking one CB #2 in the nation and one #15, while the #15 one was drafted and #2 busted.  If not for injury, trouble with the law, was it the system they were running, inadequate coaching or was it just that we underestimated a certain attribute in the lower ranked kid.  Great example is the kid we pushed for late Rakestraw in 2020.. ranked the #68 CB by 247, #36 CB by ESPN but could be a 1st round draft pick this year.  

[Bobby Burton]

14 hours ago, Quinncent McManning, Jr. said:

I love this subject.  Clearly it is impossible to predict with 100%, but there are enough clues for the recruiting services to make gradual changes.  For example, there should not be 20+ WRs in the national top 100 ranking.  Large frame athletic EDGEs should be higher ranked as they pan out and get drafter at higher rates.  The truly hard ones are OL and DL as there frequently needs more time for development to determine which linemen are draft candidates.   Then there are late growth spurts and kids that only recently transitioned to football (Mike Evans from basketball for example).

What would be interesting would be consider what a person involved in the rankings really thought ranking one CB #2 in the nation and one #15, while the #15 one was drafted and #2 busted.  If not for injury, trouble with the law, was it the system they were running, inadequate coaching or was it just that we underestimated a certain attribute in the lower ranked kid.  Great example is the kid we pushed for late Rakestraw in 2020.. ranked the #68 CB by 247, #36 CB by ESPN but could be a 1st round draft pick this year.  

What you’re discussing is partly what my attempt was done for.

I’m trying to figure out where rankings went right or wrong so that we can see things in the future.

[Quinncent McManning, Jr.]

5 minutes ago, Bobby Burton said:

What you’re discussing is partly what my attempt was done for.

I’m trying to figure out where rankings went right or wrong so that we can see things in the future.

Yes, and that makes for a fascinating look at those players. I’m just wondering if on3 or 247 or rivals does this type of self reflection. It seems like ESPN is so off sometimes that I wonder if they should even be in the composite rankings at times.   Would you like to more see a top players with nfl draft potential or top players that will perform in college as that is not the same thing. 

[cochamps]

On 2/10/2024 at 5:55 PM, Quinncent McManning, Jr. said:

I love this subject.  Clearly it is impossible to predict with 100%, but there are enough clues for the recruiting services to make gradual changes.  For example, there should not be 20+ WRs in the national top 100 ranking.  Large frame athletic EDGEs should be higher ranked as they pan out and get drafter at higher rates.  The truly hard ones are OL and DL as there frequently needs more time for development to determine which linemen are draft candidates.   Then there are late growth spurts and kids that only recently transitioned to football (Mike Evans from basketball for example).

What would be interesting would be consider what a person involved in the rankings really thought ranking one CB #2 in the nation and one #15, while the #15 one was drafted and #2 busted.  If not for injury, trouble with the law, was it the system they were running, inadequate coaching or was it just that we underestimated a certain attribute in the lower ranked kid.  Great example is the kid we pushed for late Rakestraw in 2020.. ranked the #68 CB by 247, #36 CB by ESPN but could be a 1st round draft pick this year.  

This may be an off topic sidebar but when I saw Jaxon Smith-Ngiba torch Rockwall, it was the most impressive game I'd seen from a WR (I'm pretty old).  The next week I saw Rakestraw shut him down, and I was dumbfounded as I really knew nothing about him.

[TripsLeft]

On 2/10/2024 at 9:14 AM, HookemDTX said:

Username and question are On3. Welcome.

My username on On3 is BoulderHorn.  Thanks for the welcome.

[TripsLeft]

On 2/10/2024 at 5:55 PM, Quinncent McManning, Jr. said:

I love this subject.  Clearly it is impossible to predict with 100%, but there are enough clues for the recruiting services to make gradual changes.  For example, there should not be 20+ WRs in the national top 100 ranking.  Large frame athletic EDGEs should be higher ranked as they pan out and get drafter at higher rates.  The truly hard ones are OL and DL as there frequently needs more time for development to determine which linemen are draft candidates.   Then there are late growth spurts and kids that only recently transitioned to football (Mike Evans from basketball for example).

What would be interesting would be consider what a person involved in the rankings really thought ranking one CB #2 in the nation and one #15, while the #15 one was drafted and #2 busted.  If not for injury, trouble with the law, was it the system they were running, inadequate coaching or was it just that we underestimated a certain attribute in the lower ranked kid.  Great example is the kid we pushed for late Rakestraw in 2020.. ranked the #68 CB by 247, #36 CB by ESPN but could be a 1st round draft pick this year.  

To me, the variability in the rankings highlights the importance of having great evaluators on staff.  There is value in the consensus rankings, however.  Too many national champions have topped the rankings 3-4 years earlier for them to be non-predictive.  I've often wondered what the rankings would tell us if you threw out, or used less weight on, the lowest and highest ranking, but I'm far too lazy to go back in time to do that!