Bubble watch

[bierce]

Georgia 40 So Car 29 at the half.

It looks like one bubble team knew it had to take of business in Columbia.

Edited Tuesday at 11:52 PM by bierce

[bierce]

Georgia 73 So Car 64 final

UNC 60 Va Tech 35 with 13:35 left.

[bierce]

And the dynamic just changed to a remarkable degree by our win in Starkville.

WVU down 49-48 with 8:00 left.

Boise State winning by zillions over Air Force.

tOSU 77 Nebraska 71 in a zero sum game

Vandy leading arky 29-26 late in first half.

UNC won by 32.

[John Moore]

Updated

[bierce]

Indiana down 4 with 1:03 left in Salem. 

tSOU and Nebraska going to OT.  Home loss would kill tOSU.

Indiana missed and fouled Oregon.  Made both to go up 6 with 55.6 left.

Arky up 43-37 over Vandy at the half. 

[Glass Joe]

Indiana loses.  Helps Texas somewhat.

[Assistant Regional Manager]

14 minutes ago, John Moore said:

Updated

I don’t know what goes into ESPN analytics but I would put Texas’ chances closer to 50% than 30%.

It feels like we say this every year but this is one of the weakest bubbles in recent memory. I’ve love to see the resumes other bubble teams are boasting that make ESPN think they have that much better of a chance than Texas.

[bierce]

Oregon 73 IU 64, so we just passed the Hoosiers.

Nebraska and tOSU in double OT

WVU beat Utah by 2

 

[bierce]

4 minutes ago, Assistant Regional Manager said:

I don’t know what goes into ESPN analytics but I would put Texas’ chances closer to 50% than 30%.

It feels like we say this every year but this is one of the weakest bubbles in recent memory. I’ve love to see the resumes other bubble teams are boasting that make ESPN think they have that much better of a chance than Texas.

We still need to win against OU and the SEC tournament first round game.  Winning both isn't a 50-50 proposition. 

[horns96]

35 minutes ago, John Moore said:

Updated

This is where Tre Johnson appearing in a tournament game weighs in? 🤘

[Glass Joe]

Looks like Ohio St deals a huge blow to Nebraska’s chances.

[Glass Joe]

I’m thinking the Indiana vs Ohio State game on Saturday is a winner-gets-bid game (and loser stays home).

[Orngblud05]

I thought 2-2 over the last 4 would get it done. Just didn’t think it would go like this.  Is a home win vs Georgia and OU the same as a loss to Georgia but a road win vs MS st and home vs OU?  Maybe slightly better…

[TTown]

All this speculation is fun for some I guess. Bottom line RT is gone  no matter what and y'all know it. But have fun dreaming😂

[Jordan91]

13 minutes ago, TTown said:

All this speculation is fun for some I guess. Bottom line RT is gone  no matter what and y'all know it. But have fun dreaming😂

Who said he isn’t? It’s called the bubble thread. Simply talking about Texas chances of getting in the tournament. 

[bierce]

1 hour ago, Jordan91 said:

Who said he isn’t? It’s called the bubble thread. Simply talking about Texas chances of getting in the tournament. 

Give the man some slack, Jordan.  He had to stew for 12 hours after Texas won last night before he could come up with a gratuitous dig at the coach.  That win must had gnawed at his soul badly.

But as I said after the Georgia loss, I don't see Texas going on to make the tournament.  Chances are much better now after our win last night, but I still think it is less than a 50-50 proposition because at the very least we still have to beat a bubble team in Austin and a bubble team in the SEC tournament, and we maybe will have do more than that.  We are not yet on a majority of brackets updating today.

I don't think making the tournament will save Terry's job.  As I said in the first half of the Auburn game, I don't think he will be retained at the end of the season; however, I do think it is sad that we have so many fans who respond to a great win not by cheering for the team but by crapping on the coach.

That off my chest, I will get back into the purpose of the thread, which is as you say--a bubble watch thread.

Nebraska lost in 2OT last night.  I said after it managed a huge rally to beat Northwestern in Evanston that it was safe so long as it didn't reel off 5 straight losses.  Well, it just managed 4 of them.  Lose at home to Iowa this weekend and it is out.

San Diego State lost at UNLV, giving UNLV a season sweep and SDSU a q2 loss to go with the earlier q3 loss. 

Cincy still has a prayer.  Hosts KSU tonight.

OU hosts Missouri.

Xavier at Butler.  Not a q1 game for Xavier, but it's close. 

 

 

[bierce]

SDSU might have to face UNLV in the second round of the MWC tournament.  Teams 1-5 get a bye.  UNM has clinched the 1 seed.  Boise State, Utah, State, and Colorado State could wind up in a 3 way tie for second.  The only way SDSU climbs out of fifth place will be if it wins against Nevada and Utah State loses at home to Air Force.  Not happening.

UNLV has already clinched 6th place.  It will play Air Force in the first round then draw SDSU in the second round, barring a major upset by Air Force.

I bring this up only to discuss whether SDSU might get left out.  It beat Houston, UC SD and Creighton in non-conference games, so I think it should feel somewhat safe, but an 0-3 against UNLV could be a significant black mark for a team that is only 4th in the conference in NET ranking. 

I still don't think Colorado State will get in, but it will have a chance if it wins in Boise on Friday and doesn't lay a bad egg in the conference tournament against the winner of Nevada-Wyoming. 

On a side note, let me mention that Utah State is treated very differently by NET (40) than Pomeroy (57).   Every other team in the top 40 in either ranking system has no more than a 4 spot difference between rankings. 

[John Moore]

3/5 Update

Bubble Watch 2025: Conference locks for men's March Madness

Spoiler

 

[TTown]

1 hour ago, bierce said:

Give the man some slack, Jordan.  He had to stew for 12 hours after Texas won last night before he could come up with a gratuitous dig at the coach.  That win must had gnawed at his soul badly.

But as I said after the Georgia loss, I don't see Texas going on to make the tournament.  Chances are much better now after our win last night, but I still think it is less than a 50-50 proposition because at the very least we still have to beat a bubble team in Austin and a bubble team in the SEC tournament, and we maybe will have do more than that.  We are not yet on a majority of brackets updating today.

I don't think making the tournament will save Terry's job.  As I said in the first half of the Auburn game, I don't think he will be retained at the end of the season; however, I do think it is sad that we have so many fans who respond to a great win not by cheering for the team but by crapping on the coach.

That off my chest, I will get back into the purpose of the thread, which is as you say--a bubble watch thread.

Nebraska lost in 2OT last night.  I said after it managed a huge rally to beat Northwestern in Evanston that it was safe so long as it didn't reel off 5 straight losses.  Well, it just managed 4 of them.  Lose at home to Iowa this weekend and it is out.

San Diego State lost at UNLV, giving UNLV a season sweep and SDSU a q2 loss to go with the earlier q3 loss. 

Cincy still has a prayer.  Hosts KSU tonight.

OU hosts Missouri.

Xavier at Butler.  Not a q1 game for Xavier, but it's close. 

 

 

The only thing that knows at my soul is your ridiculous takes. Keep RT for a decade IDGAF . Football matters  Bierce😂.Get out of your feels and carry on though🤘

[CoachBobbyFinstock]

3 hours ago, Orngblud05 said:

I thought 2-2 over the last 4 would get it done. Just didn’t think it would go like this.  Is a home win vs Georgia and OU the same as a loss to Georgia but a road win vs MS st and home vs OU?  Maybe slightly better…

It should have 3-2 over the last 5. Texas was favored to do that. Getting clapped by a league win less South Carolina by 15 was no bueno.

OU is a must win. A loss daggers rhem. A win gives them a 50/50 shot imo. The bubble is one of the weakest in recent memory. I mean Texas at 18-13 and 4 games below 500 even being mentioned says it all.

[Assistant Regional Manager]

I'm not sure how 4-12 OU has a 38% chance to make the tournament. 6-12 is not getting you in.

[Neil Leininger]

I think to feel confident on Selection Sunday Texas needs to beat OU and win at least 2 in the SEC tournament. Right now, it looks like we would match up with Georgia in a loser misses the NCAAT 1st round game. Currently Missouri would likely be our 2nd round opponent. Get to 20 wins, I think we get at least a play-in game in Dayton.

Edited Wednesday at 07:41 PM by Neil Leininger

[Jordan91]

3 hours ago, bierce said:

Give the man some slack, Jordan.  He had to stew for 12 hours after Texas won last night before he could come up with a gratuitous dig at the coach.  That win must had gnawed at his soul badly.

But as I said after the Georgia loss, I don't see Texas going on to make the tournament.  Chances are much better now after our win last night, but I still think it is less than a 50-50 proposition because at the very least we still have to beat a bubble team in Austin and a bubble team in the SEC tournament, and we maybe will have do more than that.  We are not yet on a majority of brackets updating today.

I don't think making the tournament will save Terry's job.  As I said in the first half of the Auburn game, I don't think he will be retained at the end of the season; however, I do think it is sad that we have so many fans who respond to a great win not by cheering for the team but by crapping on the coach.

That off my chest, I will get back into the purpose of the thread, which is as you say--a bubble watch thread.

Nebraska lost in 2OT last night.  I said after it managed a huge rally to beat Northwestern in Evanston that it was safe so long as it didn't reel off 5 straight losses.  Well, it just managed 4 of them.  Lose at home to Iowa this weekend and it is out.

San Diego State lost at UNLV, giving UNLV a season sweep and SDSU a q2 loss to go with the earlier q3 loss. 

Cincy still has a prayer.  Hosts KSU tonight.

OU hosts Missouri.

Xavier at Butler.  Not a q1 game for Xavier, but it's close. 

 

 

I am at let’s see if they play with effort against OU. And you’re right. It’s not saving the coaches job. Fans can actually hope they make the tournament. Oh well, as you said back to the bubble. 

[Jordan91]

2 hours ago, TTown said:

The only thing that knows at my soul is your ridiculous takes. Keep RT for a decade IDGAF . Football matters  Bierce😂.Get out of your feels and carry on though🤘

“IDGAF” despite this you keep coming over to comment. 

[bierce]

There are a few outliers, but the brackets that updated today not only agree we are either first four out or last four in, most put us in the first two out or last two in.  We are the paradigm of a bubble team.