OTF Premium Will Arch Manning Hit 4k Passing Yards? (Saturday AM)

[watty7796]

Not really worried about the yards total, however the TD to INT ratio and comp percentage are huge.  Ratio of 6 to 1 or greater and 67% comp for this season would be a great start.

[AusMOJO]

I honestly don't see him getting 4k, but that's just my opinion. Coach Sark has a tendency to turtle up instead of (unironically?) putting his foot on the gas. That's my only grievance about Coach Sark, is he lacks killer instinct to finish games out. Though I suppose he thinks or wants to finish games out pounding the rock. So maybe that's a harsh criticism on my part. 

Here's hoping though.

[Cujonation83]

1 minute ago, AusMOJO said:

I honestly don't see him getting 4k, but that's just my opinion. Coach Sark has a tendency to turtle up instead of (unironically?) putting his foot on the gas. That's my only grievance about Coach Sark, is he lacks killer instinct to finish games out. Though I suppose he thinks or wants to finish games out pounding the rock. So maybe that's a harsh criticism on my part. 

Here's hoping though.

Style points don't mean anything to Sark. He likes to control the pace of the game in the 4th quarter, and the best way to do that is through a good running game. 

[AusMOJO]

42 minutes ago, Cujonation83 said:

Style points don't mean anything to Sark. He likes to control the pace of the game in the 4th quarter, and the best way to do that is through a good running game. 

I'm not even talking in just the 4th quarter though. Several games, even just last year could've been put away a lot earlier and yet we let teams hang around. Just the way I see it. I'm not saying a good running game isn't the key but we've also failed to run the ball even behind a legit OL with 3 years of experience playing together. 

Like I said, he lacks killer instinct in games to put teams away earlier than the 4th quarter. 

[harveycmd]

28 minutes ago, AusMOJO said:

I'm not even talking in just the 4th quarter though. Several games, even just last year could've been put away a lot earlier and yet we let teams hang around. Just the way I see it. I'm not saying a good running game isn't the key but we've also failed to run the ball even behind a legit OL with 3 years of experience playing together. 

Like I said, he lacks killer instinct in games to put teams away earlier than the 4th quarter. 

I don't think Sark trusted Quinn enough to just turn him loose and put teams away. I'd bet Sark will allow Arch to push until he has at least a three score lead. If we don't get separation, he'll keep pushing unless there's tactical reason to abandon risk. 

[horns96]

All y'all are out of your mind crazy on this Arch stuff.

Arch's trajectory is similar to Matt Leinert's at USC under Sark.

Leinert ultimately won the Heisman and was the 10th overall pick in the NFL draft and never hit 4K yards.

[GQ03]

2 hours ago, horns96 said:

All y'all are out of your mind crazy on this Arch stuff.

Arch's trajectory is similar to Matt Leinert's at USC under Sark.

Leinert ultimately won the Heisman and was the 10th overall pick in the NFL draft and never hit 4K yards.

Matt Leinart also never had the opportunity to play 16 games. They played 13 at most.

[GQ03]

4 hours ago, AusMOJO said:

I'm not even talking in just the 4th quarter though. Several games, even just last year could've been put away a lot earlier and yet we let teams hang around. Just the way I see it. I'm not saying a good running game isn't the key but we've also failed to run the ball even behind a legit OL with 3 years of experience playing together. 

Like I said, he lacks killer instinct in games to put teams away earlier than the 4th quarter. 

I'm still trying to figure out how much of that was Sark and how much of that was Quinn. I watched the Vandy game the other night and after we took a two score lead Sark was still dialing it up but that's when the false starts, holding calls and another Quinn pick made the game closer than it needed to be.  Same thing with A&M, Sark called a game that should've resulted in 31-0 or 38-0 type game yet key mistakes made it 17-7 instead.

 

Year 1 of Sark saw all of the blown leads but that was Casey Thompson and a Texas team that severely lacked depth so once again, I'm curious to see how much Arch(and this team) changes those dynamics. 

[GQ03]

7 hours ago, Shepherd said:

@Rod Babers @CJ Vogel if Texas finished 6th in starting field position in 2024 with 21.3%, how much can they improve that advantage in 2025 with this defense? And how does that change the offensive strategy in 2025 knowing they’ll have more shots on goal than every team they play?

Not just the defense with a pass rush that should be much better (although '24 was really good) but also special teams with us having a future NFL punter in Bouwmeester instead of true freshman Michael Kern.

[AusMOJO]

4 hours ago, harveycmd said:

I don't think Sark trusted Quinn enough to just turn him loose and put teams away. I'd bet Sark will allow Arch to push until he has at least a three score lead. If we don't get separation, he'll keep pushing unless there's tactical reason to abandon risk. 

I don't know the in's and outs of that, but it was a trend under Ewers, so maybe? I'd just like to see a bit more of a killer instinct is all. 

[AusMOJO]

23 minutes ago, GQ03 said:

Not just the defense with a pass rush that should be much better (although '24 was really good) but also special teams with us having a future NFL punter in Bouwmeester instead of true freshman Michael Kern.

Don't forget Shipley the K from Texas State. Hoping we can get back some more consistency at that position. 

[AusMOJO]

27 minutes ago, GQ03 said:

I'm still trying to figure out how much of that was Sark and how much of that was Quinn. I watched the Vandy game the other night and after we took a two score lead Sark was still dialing it up but that's when the false starts, holding calls and another Quinn pick made the game closer than it needed to be.  Same thing with A&M, Sark called a game that should've resulted in 31-0 or 38-0 type game yet key mistakes made it 17-7 instead.

 

Year 1 of Sark saw all of the blown leads but that was Casey Thompson and a Texas team that severely lacked depth so once again, I'm curious to see how much Arch(and this team) changes those dynamics. 

I don't really know. It will be interesting to see. I'm not really trying to target anyone specifically, just Coach Sark because he's not only the HC but also the playcaller. But it could be a combination of the two? We'll see how Arch handles being the guy moving forward. 

Year 1 I can kinda forgive, because it was his first year but we've had a lot of close games that shouldn't have been. Like the ones you mentioned, for an example. Even the SEC championship game, with all the great chances they had and still couldn't get it done. 

[Jerky]

My guess is yes if Arch stays healthy.

[Hashtag]

10 hours ago, watty7796 said:

Not really worried about the yards total, however the TD to INT ratio and comp percentage are huge.  Ratio of 6 to 1 or greater and 67% comp for this season would be a great start.

Completion percentage doesn’t need to be 67% or better. You can be low 60s and be highly productive and throw for a lot of yards. We really just need to convert redzone opportunities. We were so bad at that the last two years. 

[Hashtag]

10 hours ago, AusMOJO said:

I honestly don't see him getting 4k, but that's just my opinion. Coach Sark has a tendency to turtle up instead of (unironically?) putting his foot on the gas. That's my only grievance about Coach Sark, is he lacks killer instinct to finish games out. Though I suppose he thinks or wants to finish games out pounding the rock. So maybe that's a harsh criticism on my part. 

Here's hoping though.

IMO the QB the past two years was a limiting factor in that. Can’t run it up if your QB can’t connect deep and you always have to rely on a 5-15 yard pass being housed. 

[Hashtag]

8 hours ago, horns96 said:

All y'all are out of your mind crazy on this Arch stuff.

Arch's trajectory is similar to Matt Leinert's at USC under Sark.

Leinert ultimately won the Heisman and was the 10th overall pick in the NFL draft and never hit 4K yards.

You can’t look at game 20 years ago and translate production to today’s offenses and rules. 
 

 

 

With Tua missing games in 2019 him and Mac combined for over 4300 yards. Mac in 2020 had 4500. 

Edited yesterday at 12:38 PM by Hashtag

[CJ Vogel]

11 hours ago, horns96 said:

All y'all are out of your mind crazy on this Arch stuff.

Arch's trajectory is similar to Matt Leinert's at USC under Sark.

Leinert ultimately won the Heisman and was the 10th overall pick in the NFL draft and never hit 4K yards.

Matt Leinart also never had the luxury of playing more than 13 games.

Leinart averaged 293.5 yards per game his final year. One more game in that season and he ends up with 4,109 yards. I believe it's very attainable with a 14-15-16 game schedule.

[AusMOJO]

13 hours ago, Hashtag said:

IMO the QB the past two years was a limiting factor in that. Can’t run it up if your QB can’t connect deep and you always have to rely on a 5-15 yard pass being housed. 

That's fair, a lot of people seem to think that. 

[Coop2395]

On 7/26/2025 at 7:42 PM, ArizonaLonghorn said:

4,000 ? Why stop there?

What are the chances Arch reaches 5,000+ yards?  Finebaum the Great has issued an Executive Order proclaiming Arch the "best college QB since Tim Tebow!" so 5,672 should be possible.

The best QB I've seen since Tebow was this guy - what are the odds Arch has a better season than Joe Burrow in 2019?  I especially like the 60-6 TD/INT ratio and the 76.3 completion percentage.

 

In all fairness I feel like I could go out there and throw for 4k if I had Chase, Jefferson, Marshall, moss and CEH. That was insane talent and weapons on that LSU team. 

[GDI]

On 7/26/2025 at 9:29 AM, GetHooked said:

The only problem is that we are probably going to blow every body out meaning Sark will be trying to run the clock out in every game.

I’m thinking along these lines.
I for sure think Arch can throw for 4k, but I don’t think he will have to. I’m bullish on  our O’line and run game this year.