Tuesday - The Future of College Sports

[Oldest Horn]

10 minutes ago, NothinButDaHorns34 said:

Can’t trust cody campbell as far as you can throw him. You can’t make me believe he’s not doing anything he can to get the upper hand for tech’s sorry asses. 

Why wouldn’t he if that’s his goal? The fact that it one guy driving the boat as opposed to a handful doesn’t make it any less trustworthy. 

[Hashtag]

3 minutes ago, Glass Joe said:

Yeah, I think Campbell is focused on 2031 when the media rights deals of the ACC and B12 expire.  And more importantly, the CFB Playoffs contract is up for renewal.  This will mark the Waterloo of college football as many of us have always known it.

Campbell realizes the ACC powers are heading for P2 conferences (FSU, Clemson, Miami, UNC, and a few others), and the ACC as we now know it will go the way of the old Pac-12.

When this happens in 2031, you’ll have something like 40-44 schools in the P2 conferences (today, it’s 34 schools, add ND, and add the top 6-7 schools that leave the ACC in 2031 = 42 schools).

The media partners will then be faced with a big decision of the P2 conference media deals, and the CFB Playoff deal.  The issue will be:  do we close off the P2 with 42-44 schools?  Or, do we invite a few additional castoffs from the B12 and call it a 48-school P2 structure?  
 
Campbell is trying to get Tech to be one of those small handful of B12 schools that gets an invitation to the P2 in 2031, should any B12 schools get invited at all.  I imagine the P2 will wind-up at 48 schools, so that leaves 5-6 schools openings, but the B12 schools will also be competing with those non-top 6 ACC schools that haven’t already been invited into the P2 (FSU, Clemson, UNC, Miami, UVA, et al).  
 
Here is where things can get dicey.  Disney / ESPN already exclusively own the rights for the SEC and ACC schools.  They are likely to be the media partner that gets first dibs on the top ACC schools, since Disney controls their rights until 2036.  That means as the SEC expands to add top ACC schools, it’s likely to be adding schools that make sense for its geographic and demographic viewership.  That means the southeast U.S. and into the mid-Atlantic region.  More importantly, it does NOT extend to the western or midwestern U.S.

That means FOX will be the media entity selecting the final 5-6 refugee schools from among the B12 and any ACC leftovers that SEC (Disney) doesn’t want.  How will FOX approach this decision?  Well, they have already invested in the west coast (USC, UCLA, UW, Oregon), but do they want to add a few schools to form a 6-8 school division?  Say, Arizona State and a Bay Area team (Cal or Stanford)?  What about adding some presence in the mountain states (Colorado, Utah)?  Or, does FOX want to buttress its presence in the mid-Atlantic media markets (Eastern time zone) to offset SEC encroachment?  Maybe WVU or UVA or VT?

It doesn’t take too long to figure out that the B12 schools in the central / plains aren’t going to be the top choices here.  KU, ISU, KSU, Baylor, Tech, Okie State, etc.  There simply isn’t any incremental media revenue to be additive to a media rights deal by including these schools.  The Big Ten already owns the corn belt (Iowa, Nebraska, Minnesota, Illinois, Indiana), so doubling down with ISU / KSU / KU / OSU makes little sense.

I would say this to Campbell’s idea that growing the pie solves his problem:  Just  because the pie gets bigger, doesn’t mean your slice of it will too.   It’s still a competitive feeding situation, not just a bigger trough.

A quick look at B12 football viewership plummeting in the last season (sans Texas and OU) tells you all you need to know about the individual value and viability of most of the current B12 schools.  And Campbell shouldn’t expect the executives at Disney and FOX to be too dumb to realize this as well.

 

BINGO

[General Grant]

2 hours ago, Bobby Burton said:

1. Campbell may be many things, but he’s not a hack. His only goal may even well be getting Texas Tech on an even playing field with Texas. I can’t discern his true goals, etc. But I can decidedly tell you he’s not a hack. The conversation we had was informative. He knew numbers, reasons, etc., and it wasn’t the sound of a hack.

2. I too worry about Texas after Eltife. It’s the chief reason why I asked Governor Abbott about how he elects/chooses the BoR.

i don't care what he does.  i am loving life not being in the same conference with those jackwagons.  keep it that way and he can do what he wants.

i'm very concerned about #2.  I was around for the Foster board days.

[Huskie1]

4 minutes ago, Glass Joe said:

Yeah, I think Campbell is focused on 2031 when the media rights deals of the ACC and B12 expire.  And more importantly, the CFB Playoffs contract is up for renewal.  This will mark the Waterloo of college football as many of us have always known it.

Campbell realizes the ACC powers are heading for P2 conferences (FSU, Clemson, Miami, UNC, and a few others), and the ACC as we now know it will go the way of the old Pac-12.

When this happens in 2031, you’ll have something like 40-44 schools in the P2 conferences (today, it’s 34 schools, add ND, and add the top 6-7 schools that leave the ACC in 2031 = 42 schools).

The media partners will then be faced with a big decision of the P2 conference media deals, and the CFB Playoff deal.  The issue will be:  do we close off the P2 with 42-44 schools?  Or, do we invite a few additional castoffs from the B12 and call it a 48-school P2 structure?  
 
Campbell is trying to get Tech to be one of those small handful of B12 schools that gets an invitation to the P2 in 2031, should any B12 schools get invited at all.  I imagine the P2 will wind-up at 48 schools, so that leaves 5-6 schools openings, but the B12 schools will also be competing with those non-top 6 ACC schools that haven’t already been invited into the P2 (FSU, Clemson, UNC, Miami, UVA, et al).  
 
Here is where things can get dicey.  Disney / ESPN already exclusively own the rights for the SEC and ACC schools.  They are likely to be the media partner that gets first dibs on the top ACC schools, since Disney controls their rights until 2036.  That means as the SEC expands to add top ACC schools, it’s likely to be adding schools that make sense for its geographic and demographic viewership.  That means the southeast U.S. and into the mid-Atlantic region.  More importantly, it does NOT extend to the western or midwestern U.S.

That means FOX will be the media entity selecting the final 5-6 refugee schools from among the B12 and any ACC leftovers that SEC (Disney) doesn’t want.  How will FOX approach this decision?  Well, they have already invested in the west coast (USC, UCLA, UW, Oregon), but do they want to add a few schools to form a 6-8 school division?  Say, Arizona State and a Bay Area team (Cal or Stanford)?  What about adding some presence in the mountain states (Colorado, Utah)?  Or, does FOX want to buttress its presence in the mid-Atlantic media markets (Eastern time zone) to offset SEC encroachment?  Maybe WVU or UVA or VT?

It doesn’t take too long to figure out that the B12 schools in the central / plains aren’t going to be the top choices here.  KU, ISU, KSU, Baylor, Tech, Okie State, etc.  There simply isn’t any incremental media revenue to be additive to a media rights deal by including these schools.  The Big Ten already owns the corn belt (Iowa, Nebraska, Minnesota, Illinois, Indiana), so doubling down with ISU / KSU / KU / OSU makes little sense.

I would say this to Campbell’s idea that growing the pie solves his problem:  Just  because the pie gets bigger, doesn’t mean your slice of it will too.   It’s still a competitive feeding situation, not just a bigger trough.

A quick look at B12 football viewership plummeting in the last season (sans Texas and OU) tells you all you need to know about the individual value and viability of most of the current B12 schools.  And Campbell shouldn’t expect the executives at Disney and FOX to be too dumb to realize this as well.

 

That’s a great breakdown. It demonstrates how college sports are controlled by the media outlets. I wish it was the other way around but the NCAA is a joke and the money is way too good to pass up. 
 

I see a split of the “power 2 or 3” from the rest of college football. You outlined that well. 
I don’t like where that is going but that is the reality as of now. Schools like Tech are fighting to get into that upper echelon and many will get left behind.  

[General Grant]

2 hours ago, Bobby Burton said:

1. Campbell may be many things, but he’s not a hack. His only goal may even well be getting Texas Tech on an even playing field with Texas. I can’t discern his true goals, etc. But I can decidedly tell you he’s not a hack. The conversation we had was informative. He knew numbers, reasons, etc., and it wasn’t the sound of a hack.

2. I too worry about Texas after Eltife. It’s the chief reason why I asked Governor Abbott about how he elects/chooses the BoR.

If you show me someone affiliated with Tech athletics who isn't a hack that would be the first.  And I don't think he's the first.

[Huskie1]

1 minute ago, General Grant said:

If you show me someone affiliated with Tech athletics who isn't a hack that would be the first.  And I don't think he's the first.

I believe Bobby showed you . Writing him off just because he played for Tech is the easy way out. Argue against his ideas, and prove he is wrong. I don’t agree with him across the board but he has some good points.

[harveycmd]

Speaking of the Big 12, I think they've lost all of their match-ups with the SEC so far: Auburn v Baylor, Kansas v Missouri, and (most embarrassingly) AZ ST v MISS ST. All their big talk prior to the season has withered quickly.

[Oldest Horn]

13 minutes ago, General Grant said:

If you show me someone affiliated with Tech athletics who isn't a hack that would be the first.  And I don't think he's the first.

What makes you think everyone affiliated with Tech is a hack? Blanket generalizations are so aggy. 

[Stuey22]

10 minutes ago, Hashtag said:

You are missing the point on why level playing field isn’t advantageous to Texas in the current landscape. If you can’t see why Texas has a clear advantage here then you’re just dumb. This isn’t just about Tech, this advantage also extends over Oklahoma, Alabama, LSU, etc. 

I see your point and understand the advantage, but I understand something you don't...UT doesn't need another advantage to win.  I'm not afraid of Tech or any other school, a level playing field is what makes it enjoyable when Texas does win.   What's dumb is thinking the only way to win is having an advantage and hating a random school that could (but actually can't) negate your advantage..

Curious...do you hate OSU or USC as much as Tech because they aren't short on NIL cash.   

[Hashtag]

1 minute ago, Oldest Horn said:

What makes you think everyone affiliated with Tech is a hack? Blanket generalizations are so aggy. 

Their entire behavior over the last 3 years from Campbell, to their AD, to their president, to their fans at games etc. 

[Hashtag]

1 minute ago, Stuey22 said:

I see your point and understand the advantage, but I understand something you don't...UT doesn't need another advantage to win.  I'm not afraid of Tech or any other school, a level playing field is what makes it enjoyable when Texas does win.   What's dumb is thinking the only way to win is having an advantage and hating a random school that could (but actually can't) negate your advantage..

Curious...do you hate OSU or USC as much as Tech because they aren't short on NIL cash.   

You’re still missing the point. When all the things that give Texas advantages right now are even then the schools I mentioned result to other methods to get an advantage that Texas does not. 

Edited 4 hours ago by Hashtag

[Oldest Horn]

Just now, Hashtag said:

Their entire behavior over the last 3 years from Campbell, to their AD, to their president, to their fans at games etc. 

So just the last three years. Gotcha. Are their fans any worse than what you find in Baton Rouge, Collie Station, Columbus, Ann Arbor, State College? I’m sure you have loads of first hand experience to share. 

[Hashtag]

Just now, Oldest Horn said:

So just the last three years. Gotcha. Are their fans any worse than what you find in Baton Rouge, Collie Station, Columbus, Ann Arbor, State College? I’m sure you have loads of first hand experience to share. 

Yes towards Texas 

[Oldest Horn]

1 minute ago, Hashtag said:

Yes towards Texas 

How so? Please elaborate. And do speak from first hand experience. 

[Stuey22]

17 minutes ago, General Grant said:

If you show me someone affiliated with Tech athletics who isn't a hack that would be the first.  And I don't think he's the first.

Zach Thomas, Wes Welker, Crabtree, Mahomes, Spike Dykes, Marsha Sharp, Grant McCasland and my favorite...Mike Leach the greatest pirate to ever sail west Texas. 

[Hashtag]

5 minutes ago, Oldest Horn said:

How so? Please elaborate. And do speak from first hand experience. 

I’m not researching for you. If you don’t think they treated Texas teams, players, and even admin level differently due to bitterness then you’re a moron. Tons of articles and info out there about those experiences. 

[Oldest Horn]

4 minutes ago, Stuey22 said:

Zach Thomas, Wes Welker, Crabtree, Mahomes, Spike Dykes, Marsha Sharp, Grant McCasland and my favorite...Mike Leach the greatest pirate to ever sail west Texas. 

Ludvig Adberg 

[GoHorns1]

45 minutes ago, Tuco Ramirez said:

I believe the NFL divides its media revenue evenly between teams. 

and the owners get and players richer each year the same would apply to all the schools.and student athletes.

Edited 4 hours ago by GoHorns1

[Oldest Horn]

Just now, Hashtag said:

I’m not researching for you. If you don’t think they treated Texas teams, players, and even admin level differently due to bitterness then you’re a moron. Tons of articles and info out there about those experiences. 

If you have to research it you have no clue. Thanks for playing, ace. 

[General Grant]

9 minutes ago, Stuey22 said:

Zach Thomas, Wes Welker, Crabtree, Mahomes, Spike Dykes, Marsha Sharp, Grant McCasland and my favorite...Mike Leach the greatest pirate to ever sail west Texas. 

yawn.  glad we don't have to play them anymore.

[Hashtag]

2 minutes ago, Oldest Horn said:

If you have to research it you have no clue. Thanks for playing, ace. 

 Not going to go and grab all the articles and post them for you just so you can be dismissive once proven wrong 

[Stuey22]

9 minutes ago, Hashtag said:

You’re still missing the point. When all the things that give Texas advantages right now are even then the schools I mentioned result to other methods to get an advantage that Texas does not. 

LOL...I get your point, it's not a complicated concept.  I just don't agree.   

[Hashtag]

Just now, Stuey22 said:

LOL...I get your point, it's not a complicated concept.  I just don't agree.   

So you think Texas was running the same systems as Bama, Georgia, Ohio state, LSU, Oregon, Aggie, Auburn, Florida, Clemson, etc before NIL? 

[Stuey22]

5 minutes ago, Hashtag said:

I’m not researching for you. If you don’t think they treated Texas teams, players, and even admin level differently due to bitterness then you’re a moron. Tons of articles and info out there about those experiences. 

I was in Lubbock for the last game...don't think Bijan has fumbled since and no one was rude to me or my daughter, everyone was very nice, just sad and upset that rivalry is over....for now  

[Joe Zura]

I see hashtag is still crying