Tuesday - The Future of College Sports

[Oldest Horn]

9 hours ago, Hashtag said:

Yeah they are really struggling for content when they just acquired NFL network, redzone, and WWE!

I’d say they are when they pay billions for existing content. You weren’t a business major, were you?

[Hookem72]

Let’s not pretend we weren’t a part of the problem with the ill-conceived Longhorn Network.  
 

A general truth in life is that anytime someone becomes passionate about something they will spend time and money to try and get better at it or do it more often.  The media has over the last 30 years taken advantage of what used to be one of the more pure athletic endeavors in college football.  When the athletes saw how much the schools were making from ESPN and CBS and Fox deals, they wanted their cut.  The old lie we told ourselves that football supported the academics is an old wives tale now.  For better or worse we are living in a free market system where money is going to either turn college football into another version of the NFL or there will be some kind of return to the old school feeling that college football is more pure than pro sports.  I don’t know if we can put the toothpaste back in the tube, but at least Campbell is trying.  
 

And don’t think for a minute we don’t have plenty of billionaire supporters too.  We just dont hear about what they are doing publicly.

This has been one of the more interesting threads ion OTF I’ve seen and I enjoy the spirited debate   I could use a little less of the ad hominems and petty bickering though .  The billionaires are not taking notes from us.

 

🤘🤘🤘

 

[Glass Joe]

2 hours ago, alrightalrightalright said:

I think we're destined for a FBS split into two tiers, FBS1 and FBS2. Pool the media rights for FBS1 and FBS2 as 1 package and sell them. Then distribute the revenue accordingly.

FBS1: SEC, B1G, Big 12, ACC. Each conference will receive 4 teams yearly in the CFP to build out a 16-team playoff. Notre Dame will have to finally join a conference.

FBS2: Pac-12, Mountain West, American, Mid-American, Conference USA, Sun Belt. FBS2 will have their own 16-team playoff.

AI tells me the average Mountain West program earns $3.5M in media rights annually and that they could earn up to $10-13.5M annually if they pool their rights. I assume if the distribution were 80-20 to FBS1, 20% still provides a school earning only $3.5M/year in media rights now, more money in a pooled system.

We don't blink one bit when we hear about the FCS National Champion. I, like many others, actually watch the FCS Playoffs (while wondering how those fans sit in the Dakotas in snowy, windy December) and enjoy it more than some of the low-level bowls. I probably pay closer attention to these games, too.

I think we'd feel the exact same way about the FBS2 National Champion. I'd much rather watch the FBS2 Playoffs in sold-out campus stadiums, that have a truly meaningful outcome, than the LA Bowl Hosted by Gronk in SoFi with 90% of the seats empty. Gronk would be entertaining tho.

The issue with the approach outlined above is the wide disparity WITHIN the “FBS1” group as defined above.  What do you think the individual media rights value is of (say) Wake Forest compared to Alabama?  Or of Cincinnati compared to Notre Dame?  Or of Kansas St compared to Texas?  It’s not a stretch at all to assume the media rights of the biggest brands in the SEC and Big Ten are worth 10x - 20x some of the schools currently in the ACC or B12.  

For proof? Some of the current B12 schools were part of the MWC, American, or C-USA within the past decade, so that $3.5M media rights figure you cited above actually applied to current B12 schools (UH, TCU, Utah, Cincinnati, etc.).  These schools didn’t suddenly become more valuable in the last decade, instead they were simply added to the B12 and got a better media deal on the coattails of Texas, OU, etc.  That gravy train ends in 2031 for these schools.

Further proof?  SMU is paying the ACC to be a member.  What does this suggest about SMU’s stand-alone media value?  Stanford and Cal were bypassed by the Big Ten when they grabbed USC, UCLA, UW, and Oregon.  Effectively, Stanford and Cal are viewed by the Big Ten as peers of Oregon St and Washington State.  Now, they get a half share of the ACC’s value…which itself will plummet in 2031 when the biggest brands (FSU, Clemson, UNC) exit.

And on and on.  The hard reality is that there aren’t 64 schools that are peers in terms of economic and media value.  The number is lower - somewhere between 40-48 schools.  This is just like the NFL, where 32 franchises are awarded based on the concept of each franchise bringing a relatively similar market value by occupying a large MSA market.  Economics of franchising 101.  This allows for equal revenue sharing by NFL teams as they pool their markets / MSAs to shop for the highest media rights deals.  This forms the basis of an economically equitable league, where a competitive balance is achieved amongst all 32 franchises, which itself is a key to growing the popularity of the league among fans dispersed across 50 states.  There is a reason to there isn’t an NFL franchise in Boise or Des Moines or Wichita.

This is where college football is heading.  The same corporations (Disney, Fox, NBC, and CBS) that define the NFL economic model are the ones who signs the media checks for college football.  The only thing left is to decide what is the number of franchises and where are they located to maximize the national viewership interest of major college football.  In my opinion, the SEC and Big Ten will serve as the analogs to the NFC and AFC, and there won’t be a third conference in major college football.

The biggest issue to resolve is how willing are the dominant revenue drivers in college  football (Texas, ND, tOSU, Bama, UGA, PSU, Michigan, USC, LSU, OU, Florida, etc.) willing to share their name with other schools for the maximization of the national media rights pie for the collective whole of major college football?  I’m guessing it’s 48 schools maximum, though I can see it as low as 42 schools.  I’ll let the data analysts and economic modelers at Disney and Fox figure out the optimized number of schools / MSAs to maximize the media deal.

 

[Hashtag]

18 minutes ago, Glass Joe said:

The issue with the approach outlined above is the wide disparity WITHIN the “FBS1” group as defined above.  What do you think the individual media rights value is of (say) Wake Forest compared to Alabama?  Or of Cincinnati compared to Notre Dame?  Or of Kansas St compared to Texas?  It’s not a stretch at all to assume the media rights of the biggest brands in the SEC and Big Ten are worth 10x - 20x some of the schools currently in the ACC or B12.  

For proof? Some of the current B12 schools were part of the MWC, American, or C-USA within the past decade, so that $3.5M media rights figure you cited above actually applied to current B12 schools (UH, TCU, Utah, Cincinnati, etc.).  These schools didn’t suddenly become more valuable in the last decade, instead they were simply added to the B12 and got a better media deal on the coattails of Texas, OU, etc.  That gravy train ends in 2031 for these schools.

Further proof?  SMU is paying the ACC to be a member.  What does this suggest about SMU’s stand-alone media value?  Stanford and Cal were bypassed by the Big Ten when they grabbed USC, UCLA, UW, and Oregon.  Effectively, Stanford and Cal are viewed by the Big Ten as peers of Oregon St and Washington State.  Now, they get a half share of the ACC’s value…which itself will plummet in 2031 when the biggest brands (FSU, Clemson, UNC) exit.

And on and on.  The hard reality is that there aren’t 64 schools that are peers in terms of economic and media value.  The number is lower - somewhere between 40-48 schools.  This is just like the NFL, where 32 franchises are awarded based on the concept of each franchise bringing a relatively similar market value by occupying a large MSA market.  Economics of franchising 101.  This allows for equal revenue sharing by NFL teams as they pool their markets / MSAs to shop for the highest media rights deals.  This forms the basis of an economically equitable league, where a competitive balance is achieved amongst all 32 franchises, which itself is a key to growing the popularity of the league among fans dispersed across 50 states.  There is a reason to there isn’t an NFL franchise in Boise or Des Moines or Wichita.

This is where college football is heading.  The same corporations (Disney, Fox, NBC, and CBS) that define the NFL economic model are the ones who signs the media checks for college football.  The only thing left is to decide what is the number of franchises and where are they located to maximize the national viewership interest of major college football.  In my opinion, the SEC and Big Ten will serve as the analogs to the NFC and AFC, and there won’t be a third conference in major college football.

The biggest issue to resolve is how willing are the dominant revenue drivers in college  football (Texas, ND, tOSU, Bama, UGA, PSU, Michigan, USC, LSU, OU, Florida, etc.) willing to share their name with other schools for the maximization of the national media rights pie for the collective whole of major college football?  I’m guessing it’s 48 schools maximum, though I can see it as low as 42 schools.  I’ll let the data analysts and economic modelers at Disney and Fox figure out the optimized number of schools / MSAs to maximize the media deal.

 

Here is a visual for the disparity to further show why Campbell is doing this for his own self interest with tech moving forward and not the greater good of the sport. 
 

 

This chart stopped charting in 2023, it’s going to be worse for Big 12 moving forward as well because the data won’t include Texas and Oklahoma in the big 12 viewership numbers that clearly and unequivocally raised the big 12 overall viewership. 

[Oldest Horn]

3 minutes ago, Hashtag said:

Here is a visual for the disparity to further show why Campbell is doing this for his own self interest with tech moving forward and not the greater good of the sport. 
 

 

This chart stopped charting in 2023, it’s going to be worse for Big 12 moving forward as well because the data won’t include Texas and Oklahoma in the big 12 viewership numbers that clearly and unequivocally raised the big 12 overall viewership. 

Let me get this straight. A prominent Tech booster is doing what is best for his school. Oh. My. God. 

[alrightalrightalright]

45 minutes ago, Glass Joe said:

The issue with the approach outlined above is the wide disparity WITHIN the “FBS1” group as defined above.  What do you think the individual media rights value is of (say) Wake Forest compared to Alabama?  Or of Cincinnati compared to Notre Dame?  Or of Kansas St compared to Texas?  It’s not a stretch at all to assume the media rights of the biggest brands in the SEC and Big Ten are worth 10x - 20x some of the schools currently in the ACC or B12.  

For proof? Some of the current B12 schools were part of the MWC, American, or C-USA within the past decade, so that $3.5M media rights figure you cited above actually applied to current B12 schools (UH, TCU, Utah, Cincinnati, etc.).  These schools didn’t suddenly become more valuable in the last decade, instead they were simply added to the B12 and got a better media deal on the coattails of Texas, OU, etc.  That gravy train ends in 2031 for these schools.

Further proof?  SMU is paying the ACC to be a member.  What does this suggest about SMU’s stand-alone media value?  Stanford and Cal were bypassed by the Big Ten when they grabbed USC, UCLA, UW, and Oregon.  Effectively, Stanford and Cal are viewed by the Big Ten as peers of Oregon St and Washington State.  Now, they get a half share of the ACC’s value…which itself will plummet in 2031 when the biggest brands (FSU, Clemson, UNC) exit.

And on and on.  The hard reality is that there aren’t 64 schools that are peers in terms of economic and media value.  The number is lower - somewhere between 40-48 schools.  This is just like the NFL, where 32 franchises are awarded based on the concept of each franchise bringing a relatively similar market value by occupying a large MSA market.  Economics of franchising 101.  This allows for equal revenue sharing by NFL teams as they pool their markets / MSAs to shop for the highest media rights deals.  This forms the basis of an economically equitable league, where a competitive balance is achieved amongst all 32 franchises, which itself is a key to growing the popularity of the league among fans dispersed across 50 states.  There is a reason to there isn’t an NFL franchise in Boise or Des Moines or Wichita.

This is where college football is heading.  The same corporations (Disney, Fox, NBC, and CBS) that define the NFL economic model are the ones who signs the media checks for college football.  The only thing left is to decide what is the number of franchises and where are they located to maximize the national viewership interest of major college football.  In my opinion, the SEC and Big Ten will serve as the analogs to the NFC and AFC, and there won’t be a third conference in major college football.

The biggest issue to resolve is how willing are the dominant revenue drivers in college  football (Texas, ND, tOSU, Bama, UGA, PSU, Michigan, USC, LSU, OU, Florida, etc.) willing to share their name with other schools for the maximization of the national media rights pie for the collective whole of major college football?  I’m guessing it’s 48 schools maximum, though I can see it as low as 42 schools.  I’ll let the data analysts and economic modelers at Disney and Fox figure out the optimized number of schools / MSAs to maximize the media deal.

 

You don’t need 4 paragraphs to prove to me that Alabama is worth more than Wake Forest. I’m well aware. There obviously are steps to work out. The SEC and B1G already receive the largest shares of the pie. I see that staying the same in a new model going forward, otherwise they wouldn’t agree to any change.

[Hashtag]

5 minutes ago, alrightalrightalright said:

You don’t need 4 paragraphs to prove to me that Alabama is worth more than Wake Forest. I’m well aware. There obviously are steps to work out. The SEC and B1G already receive the largest shares of the pie. I see that staying the same in a new model going forward, otherwise they wouldn’t agree to any change.

So why push this if it’s going to be the same? lol this is what I meant when I said he’s creating a problem that doesn’t exist to fix something that isn’t broke just so Tech can be guaranteed as part of the future. Especially with big 12 2031 deal going to be not very good while sec and bigs continue to grow. 

Edited 4 hours ago by Hashtag

[alrightalrightalright]

Just now, Hashtag said:

So why push this if it’s going to be the same? lol this is what I meant when I said he’s creating a problem that doesn’t exist to fix something that isn’t broke just so Tech can be guaranteed as part of the future. 

I don’t care about Tech or what Cody Campbell is doing. I shared where I think this ends up, which is the Power 4 splitting away from the Group of 6.

[Glass Joe]

1 minute ago, alrightalrightalright said:

You don’t need 4 paragraphs to prove to me that Alabama is worth more than Wake Forest. I’m well aware. There obviously are steps to work out. The SEC and B1G already receive the largest shares of the pie. I see that staying the same in a new model going forward, otherwise they wouldn’t agree to any change.

The ACC as we know it will be going away in 2031.  There’s no need to consider the B12 after the few valuable schools (ASU, Utah, Colorado) leave that conference to force their way into the P2 after the ACC dissolves in 2031.

 So, the “FSB1” you propose above really needn’t consider the ACC nor B12 as conferences to include in it.  It’ll be two conferences, and any membership from current ACC or B12 schools will be highly restrictive and selective.

 

[alrightalrightalright]

2 minutes ago, Glass Joe said:

The ACC as we know it will be going away in 2031.  There’s no need to consider the B12 after the few valuable schools (ASU, Utah, Colorado) leave that conference to force their way into the P2 after the ACC dissolves in 2031.

 So, the “FSB1” you propose above really needn’t consider the ACC nor B12 as conferences to include in it.  It’ll be two conferences, and any membership from current ACC or B12 schools will be highly restrictive and selective.

 

Yes this I agree with. I included all 4 conferences in the original FBS1 talk track as a handful of programs in the ACC and Big 12 will be selected to make their way over and how else do we reference them than by their current name.

[Quinncent McManning, Jr.]

Larry Ellison now richest person in the world. Prepare for more money bags at Michigan 

[LonghornFan4Ever]

10 minutes ago, Quinncent McManning, Jr. said:

Larry Ellison now richest person in the world. Prepare for more money bags at Michigan 

If he plays this right, Michigan will start outrecruiting Ohio State and Oregon on a regular basis.  That has not been the case for most of my lifetime.  Not sure if they have the right coaching staff in place to maximize that talent, but something to watch over the next few recruiting cycles.

[Glass Joe]

1 hour ago, Hashtag said:

Here is a visual for the disparity to further show why Campbell is doing this for his own self interest with tech moving forward and not the greater good of the sport. 
 

 

This chart stopped charting in 2023, it’s going to be worse for Big 12 moving forward as well because the data won’t include Texas and Oklahoma in the big 12 viewership numbers that clearly and unequivocally raised the big 12 overall viewership. 

Thank for sharing.  This chart summarizes all the discussion points in the posts above very succinctly.  And there are some profound implications:

* today, there are 65 teams across the P4 conferences (inc ND).  If only 18 teams generate half the media revenue of the entire D1 (140 schools), that implies that 47 schools in P4 conferences are being somewhat subsidized by the big 18 revenue schools.  If you prefer softer language, 47 schools currently in P4 are receiving outsized media revenue relative to their own individual media revenue value.

* it also implies that more than half of the current P2 schools (SEC and Big Ten collectively are 34 schools today) are below average contributors to their own conferences media revenue.  Note; there are 15 current P2 schools on the list of 18 schools above.  In other words, even within the P2 conferences, 15 schools pull more than half the revenue weight of the other 18 schools.  This is what I mean when I state the next great battle in college sports may be WITHIN the P2 conferences.  Think Vandy, Rutgers, Minnesota, or Northwestern being a part of the final 40-48 schools of major college football.  Hmm…

*  Once the largest ACC schools (Clemson, FSU, UNC) are added to the mix, it’s doubtful that any other ACC or Big 12 schools will be above mean (average) contributors to the media revenue generation of the major college football league.  NONE!  This is why the biggest 18-20 schools will be very reluctant to expand the P2 conferences beyond the 40-48 schools mentioned above.

 * To bring things full circle, you now should understand why Cody Campbell is worried about the future of Texas Tech.  Keep in mind, Campbell is now the Chairman of the Board of Trustees at Tech, not just some football booster.  His school’s  future is predicated on being part of the finalized major college football league in 2031, and he realizes he’ll be part of the “subsidized” group of schools, NOT the group of outsized revenue generators.  And that’s going to be a tough sell for a Lubbock, TX school.