OTF Premium What might the Texas offense look like if Matthew Caldwell is QB1 against Vanderbilt?

[Jeff Howe]

Whether Arch Manning is out of concussion protocol in time to start at quarterback for No. 20 Texas against No. 9 Vanderbilt at Royal-Texas Memorial Stadium on Saturday (11 a.m., ABC) or Matthew Caldwell makes his Forty Acres starting debut, don’t expect Steve Sarkisian’s offense to change much, if at all.

“We haven’t changed anything that we’ve done,” Sarkisian said on a Zoom call with reporters after Thursday’s practice. “Our system has been our system.”

It’s true that Sarkisian’s attack has looked largely the same, no matter which of the five quarterbacks he’s called upon to start in his tenure (Manning, Hudson Card, Casey Thompson, Quinn Ewers and Maalik Murphy) have run the show. Nevertheless, none of those quarterbacks operated the offense the same.

Manning, who practiced on Thursday but remains in concussion protocol, Sarkisian said, is making progress toward getting back on the field. If he can’t go, however, Sarkisian remains steadfast in his belief that Caldwell’s coaches and teammates “have the utmost confidence and respect” in the Troy transfer to get the job done.

Regarding how the offense will function with Caldwell at the controls, it’s to Sarkisian’s benefit to play coy and avoid revealing his hand to Clark Lea and the Commodores. Everybody outside the Moncrief Complex has a limited viewing sample of what Caldwell can do, Sarkisian said, “but he gives us a ton of confidence in the way that he practices every day, the way that he works.”

Between Caldwell’s 2023 season at FCS Gardner-Webb and what he did in five starts with the Trojans in 2024, there are two areas in which he could help Texas (6-2, 3-1 SEC) move the football through the air.

Five of Caldwell’s seven touchdown passes in 2023 came on pass attempts behind the line of scrimmage. Caldwell earned a 74.3 season-long grade from Pro Football Focus on those throws, going 43-for-47 for 250 yards, which is better than Manning’s 2025 grade on pass attempts behind the line of scrimmage of 70.2 (52-for-54 for 371 yards and no touchdowns). 

Caldwell had more success on intermediate throws (pass attempts 10-19 yards down the field) at Troy last season, recording a PFF grade of 85.7 (28-for-46 for 433 yards and seven touchdowns against three interceptions). Caldwell’s overtime touchdown pass to Emmett Mosley V in last week’s win over Mississippi State was an intermediate-range throw, a part of the field in which he’s 3-for-4 for 44 yards (a PFF grade of 86.8) and where Manning hasn’t been at his best this season (27-for-54 for 431 yards, two touchdowns and three interceptions).

Caldwell’s ability to execute screens and quick throws behind the line of scrimmage, along with the intermediate throws that Sarkisian’s play-calls can scheme open, can stabilize an offense that otherwise couldn’t lean on Manning extending the play with his legs, be a factor in the running game or hit chunk-yardage plays on deep balls (on 60 career pass attempts thrown 20 or more yards down the field, Caldwell has completed just 19, throwing two touchdowns against seven interceptions). The Longhorns shouldn’t be expected to run either quarterback much; Manning wouldn’t be asked to run more than necessary for obvious reasons and in addition to Caldwell fumbling seven times (48 official rushing attempts, including sacks) in 2024, his elevation to QB1 would put KJ Lacey one play away from the first meaningful action of his true freshman season.

The closest thing Texas has had to a recognizable identity on offense is when it relies on Manning’s athleticism to extend plays. Manning's legs have taken pressure off the offensive line and created explosive plays down the field.

Even if Caldwell can’t do those things, Sarkisian is confident in the offense putting a winning brand of football on the field with the well-traveled veteran at the wheel.

“The game plan is the game plan,” Sarkisian said. “I think all of his teammates have a ton of confidence in Matt if it’s his time to go.”

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[Jeff Howe]

Take the PFF numbers however you will, but it's all we've got. Nobody knows better than Sark what Caldwell can do. That's why if Texas wins the game, this will have to be up there with the OU game, last year's win over Michigan and the 2023 Alabama game for the best games Sark has called/managed.

[Steamboat Willie]

Sark’s playing it smart here — keep the offense steady, let Vandy guess, and don’t hand them a free scouting report. Truth is, Arch gives you the off-script juice with his legs, but Caldwell’s résumé shows he can work the system: quick game, screens, and those intermediate throws that Sark loves to dial up. No need to reinvent the wheel, just execute. And honestly, with this defense playing at the level it is, Texas doesn’t need Superman at QB on Saturday. Just someone steady enough to move the chains and protect the ball. Whether it’s Arch or Caldwell, this is still Texas’ game to lose.

[hookem1014]

Regardless who starts, Texas has to establish some sort of run game in order to win. I don’t think the team can afford to go into crisis mode like they did the last 2 weeks. 

[alrightalrightalright]

Our perimeter blocking had moments of success last week, particularly on the two Wingo plays.

If we can build on that, Caldwell can be set up to have a really nice day. We’ll need it to be productive if we don’t have QB legs to depend on (although Caldwell has shown an ability to run, particularly on the 50 yard RPO against SHSU). 

[CJ Vogel]

If there was ever a game for Texas to run the football effectively..

[HookemTexas]

My take is that Caldwell is akin to Ewers but can and will take off if necessary or opportunity allows.

[HookemChappy]

3 minutes ago, CJ Vogel said:

If there was ever a game for Texas to run the football effectively..

I think Caldwell gives us a chance to execute the extended run game with the screens and RPO game. Hopefully Baxter is building up momentum.

[diegozanna20]

1 hour ago, HookemTexas said:

My take is that Caldwell is akin to Ewers but can and will take off if necessary or opportunity allows.

He's also much looser with the football in both fumbles and interceptions. That can be devastating in a game like this.
Quinn big problem was definitely "running into sacks" and not really maneuvering in the pocket and stuff.
Arch has been up and down and making the easy stuff look really hard but it's 3 weeks in a row with 0 turnover worthy throws while being under pressure most of the time.

1 hour ago, Steamboat Willie said:

Sark’s playing it smart here — keep the offense steady, let Vandy guess, and don’t hand them a free scouting report. Truth is, Arch gives you the off-script juice with his legs, but Caldwell’s résumé shows he can work the system: quick game, screens, and those intermediate throws that Sark loves to dial up. No need to reinvent the wheel, just execute. And honestly, with this defense playing at the level it is, Texas doesn’t need Superman at QB on Saturday. Just someone steady enough to move the chains and protect the ball. Whether it’s Arch or Caldwell, this is still Texas’ game to lose.

I absolutely agree with you if this can be a kentucky/OU type game...
I'm much more afraid of the game turning into a situation where the defense is tired/leaky and we have to score 30+.
If we can't run the ball and OL isn't protecting I don't see us winning without Arch.
I'm not as confident as some people here are about this being "Texas' game to lose"... but I'm also often very wrong so I'll gladly eat crow if we stomp Vandy this saturday 😅😂

Edited 2 hours ago by diegozanna20

[4thandFive]

1 hour ago, CJ Vogel said:

If there was ever a game for Texas to run the football effectively..

What does Vandy’s DL look like?

[tsip92]

The strengths definitely align more closely with Quinn.  Will be interesting to see what deep balls Sark calls if it’s Caldwell.  
 

Arch being a 50% passer on intermediate throws is just a shocking statistic.  Throw in 3 ints and only 2 TDs just to pile on.  I know that is biased by some of his early season “yips”, but he’s got to be MUCH better than that if he wants to be successful going forward.  This is reason #1b along with the OL/running game issues as to why we haven’t been able to move the ball consistently.  

[ArizonaLonghorn]

1 hour ago, CJ Vogel said:

If there was ever a game for Texas to run the football effectively..

Would certainly be nice, but Caldwell's lack of success with the long ball means the Vandy safeties don't have to play as deep, which could slow down our run game, right?

[Here for the Wins]

29 minutes ago, tsip92 said:

The strengths definitely align more closely with Quinn.  Will be interesting to see what deep balls Sark calls if it’s Caldwell.  
 

Arch being a 50% passer on intermediate throws is just a shocking statistic.  Throw in 3 ints and only 2 TDs just to pile on.  I know that is biased by some of his early season “yips”, but he’s got to be MUCH better than that if he wants to be successful going forward.  This is reason #1b along with the OL/running game issues as to why we haven’t been able to move the ball consistently.  

There are likely several reasons for this stat.  This may be the distance at which QB pressure is most impactful.  Since we’re 3rd and long quite often, we’re likely in this range when forced to be rather than we want to be.

Arch is tied for 4th in number of pressures at that distance.  Quick math shows of those in the top 5 his pressure rate is the highest.  He’s tied for 34th in number of attempts.

[diegozanna20]

1 hour ago, tsip92 said:

The strengths definitely align more closely with Quinn.  Will be interesting to see what deep balls Sark calls if it’s Caldwell.  
 

Arch being a 50% passer on intermediate throws is just a shocking statistic.  Throw in 3 ints and only 2 TDs just to pile on.  I know that is biased by some of his early season “yips”, but he’s got to be MUCH better than that if he wants to be successful going forward.  This is reason #1b along with the OL/running game issues as to why we haven’t been able to move the ball consistently.  

He has definitely not been to the level he needs to be in the intermediate but there's a lot more factors that go into it besides Arch:
- When is he throwing in that area? Is it a lot on 3rd and long? When OL isn't blocking anything and Arch is getting pressured the most?
- How many passes are dropped? Cause I'm pretty sure I saw more than a  few in the intermediate just last game...
- Still not incredible rapport with the receivers and quite a few times a game they aren't where they need to be... does Arch trust them to be where they need to be?
- How many plays does Sark call for his receivers to run routes in the intermediate range? Again, not a lot of rapport in that area between Arch and the receivers but it's hard to build that rapport when they are only getting called on 3rd and long...

It's a very fair criticism to point out that he needs to get better in the intermediate but that's also an area where young QBs typically struggle, especially when confidence isn't all there from the QB

Edited 21 minutes ago by diegozanna20