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Everything posted by Jeff Howe
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The Longhorns begin a three-game home series with the Tigers on the last weekend of the regular season. The game will be streamed live on SEC Network Plus. On the health/injury front: — Ethan Mendoza (shoulder) will be the designated hitter role only this weekend. — Dariyan Pendergrass isn't listed on the SEC availability report. Schloss said on Wednesday that Pendergrass could play this weekend, but as of yesterday, he wasn't sure. UPDATE: Pendergrass is in the lineup in center field. — Max Grubbs is out for this series. It sounds like he's been dealing with some arm soreness, so he'll get the weekend off.
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Shoutout to @CJ Vogel for his time-of-possession breakdown, which sent me down a rabbit hole examining play differential. In our Longhorn Blitz days with @Rod Babers, Matt Butler and I, Matt is the one who pointed out play differential as something to look to understand TOP better (kinda like looking at touchdown rate in the red zone instead of conversion rate as a whole when determining success or failure).
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After reading CJ Vogel’s examination of time of possession as a statistic that must change for Texas to reach its ceiling in 2026, my focus shifted to play differential. It’s not that one statistic is better than the other. I prefer to lean on a team’s play differential (the positive or negative difference between the number of plays a team runs on offense and the number of plays their defense faces) because it’s a more precise measurement of game control. If an opponent leans on an up-tempo offense and runs a lot of plays with a premium on getting more possessions, or if an opponent wants to take the air out of the football and make the game shorter, play differential can paint a more accurate picture than time of possession. No matter how you slice it, when it comes to what the Longhorns did last season, play differential (like time of possession) must improve to maximize the team’s potential. Texas finished the 2025 season with a minus-47 overall play differential (minus-3.6 per game), which ranked 15th in the SEC. Against SEC competition, the Longhorns had the worst total play differential (minus-79) in the conference and ranked last in the SEC in per-game play differential (minus-9.9). In short, Texas’ conference opponents ran roughly 10 more plays per game than the Longhorns. That might not sound like much, but when considering that SEC foes averaged 1.5 scoring drives of 10 or more plays per game against Texas (12 double-digit play scoring drives by SEC opponents in eight conference games), it's a problem that must be fixed. The highest priority to get the issue resolved is the Longhorns running the football better than they did last season, especially in conference play. Only Alabama’s 89.9 rushing yards per game against SEC opponents kept Texas from being the worst rushing offense in the conference, with an average of 93.1 yards per game on the ground in eight conference games. Texas also must do a better job of getting off the field on third and fourth down, which includes being a better defense on first and second down. Pete Kwiatkowski's defense faced an average of 14.7 third downs per game against SEC opponents in 2025, a mark topped only by Oklahoma’s 14.9 for the most in the conference. Even when the Longhorns got third-down stops (a 39.8-percent conversion rate by SEC opponents ranked 10th in the conference, which was well above the defense’s season average of 33.5 percent), only Ole Miss defended more fourth-down conversion attempts (34 in 15 games) than the 31 times the Texas defense was on the field on fourth down. The Longhorns finished fourth in the conference and tied for 30th nationally in fourth-down defense (45.2-percent conversion rate allowed), but only Alabama and Auburn (15 each) allowed more teams to convert on fourth down than the 14 times it happened to the Longhorns. Texas allowed opponents to convert eight of the combined 16 fourth-down attempts it faced against SEC opponents. Without question, coming off a year in which the Longhorns were one of five SEC offenses that failed to run at least 500 plays against conference opponents (499, which tied with Florida for the third fewest in the league), the running game must improve. At the same time, Steve Sarkisian brought Will Muschamp back to the Forty Acres to call the defense so that his aggressive style can create more negative plays to get opponents behind the chains and promote more turnover-forcing opportunities, which must happen for Texas to shrink the wide gap in play differential from last season. View full news story
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After reading CJ Vogel’s examination of time of possession as a statistic that must change for Texas to reach its ceiling in 2026, my focus shifted to play differential. It’s not that one statistic is better than the other. I prefer to lean on a team’s play differential (the positive or negative difference between the number of plays a team runs on offense and the number of plays their defense faces) because it’s a more precise measurement of game control. If an opponent leans on an up-tempo offense and runs a lot of plays with a premium on getting more possessions, or if an opponent wants to take the air out of the football and make the game shorter, play differential can paint a more accurate picture than time of possession. No matter how you slice it, when it comes to what the Longhorns did last season, play differential (like time of possession) must improve to maximize the team’s potential. Texas finished the 2025 season with a minus-47 overall play differential (minus-3.6 per game), which ranked 15th in the SEC. Against SEC competition, the Longhorns had the worst total play differential (minus-79) in the conference and ranked last in the SEC in per-game play differential (minus-9.9). In short, Texas’ conference opponents ran roughly 10 more plays per game than the Longhorns. That might not sound like much, but when considering that SEC foes averaged 1.5 scoring drives of 10 or more plays per game against Texas (12 double-digit play scoring drives by SEC opponents in eight conference games), it's a problem that must be fixed. The highest priority to get the issue resolved is the Longhorns running the football better than they did last season, especially in conference play. Only Alabama’s 89.9 rushing yards per game against SEC opponents kept Texas from being the worst rushing offense in the conference, with an average of 93.1 yards per game on the ground in eight conference games. Texas also must do a better job of getting off the field on third and fourth down, which includes being a better defense on first and second down. Pete Kwiatkowski's defense faced an average of 14.7 third downs per game against SEC opponents in 2025, a mark topped only by Oklahoma’s 14.9 for the most in the conference. Even when the Longhorns got third-down stops (a 39.8-percent conversion rate by SEC opponents ranked 10th in the conference, which was well above the defense’s season average of 33.5 percent), only Ole Miss defended more fourth-down conversion attempts (34 in 15 games) than the 31 times the Texas defense was on the field on fourth down. The Longhorns finished fourth in the conference and tied for 30th nationally in fourth-down defense (45.2-percent conversion rate allowed), but only Alabama and Auburn (15 each) allowed more teams to convert on fourth down than the 14 times it happened to the Longhorns. Texas allowed opponents to convert eight of the combined 16 fourth-down attempts it faced against SEC opponents. Without question, coming off a year in which the Longhorns were one of five SEC offenses that failed to run at least 500 plays against conference opponents (499, which tied with Florida for the third fewest in the league), the running game must improve. At the same time, Steve Sarkisian brought Will Muschamp back to the Forty Acres to call the defense so that his aggressive style can create more negative plays to get opponents behind the chains and promote more turnover-forcing opportunities, which must happen for Texas to shrink the wide gap in play differential from last season.
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This isn't directed at you @LonghornFan4Ever, but I refuse to click on that video. The scream-at-people shows have made ESPN unwatchable during the day.
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College football game time announcement thread
Jeff Howe replied to Gerry Hamilton's topic in On Texas Football Forum
Can someone explain to me why the Big 12 thought it would be a good idea to schedule Texas Tech and TCU on Thanksgiving? Texas tried to start that tradition with both of them. Nobody cared. -
OTF Premium For Sure CFB Hall of Famers in the Last 10 Years?
Jeff Howe replied to CJ Vogel's topic in On Texas Football Forum
DeShon had one of the best seasons by a Texas DB that nobody remembers. Sad that it’s kinda been lost in the shuffle of the Strong-to-Herman transition. -
My dad ran a shop in Georgetown when I was a kid. The junk wax boom was nice because you were never too far from a store. Collected pretty much up until I graduated high school, but did buy a LeBron rookie because I figured it would be worthwhile to have down the road. It's not a huge card, but I like that it has gone everywhere with me since 2003.
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Not a surprise to OTF subscribers. Best of luck to Dailyn Swain in the NBA. He had a heck of a year for the Longhorns.
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