Texas Vegas Odds To Make CFP Continue To Change

[4thandFive]

Just now, Joe Zura said:

As you should. I want you to roast me and call me awful names. Also I’ll stop being mean to Gerry and CJ deal? 🫡

Hey now…let’s not go crazy.

[Joe Zura]

Just now, 4thandFive said:

Hey now…let’s not go crazy.

😭😭

[John F.]

6 minutes ago, Glass Joe said:

If we get to #12 tonight at least there’s a glimmer of hope heading into the weekend.  Slight, but still a glimmer.

If we land at #13 tonight (likely), we’ve got zero hope heading into this weekend.

At least #12 allows you to hope a blowout loss by Bama to UGA, combined with the expected loss of BYU to Tech, may open up the #10 spot in the final rankings for a 3-loss Texas to edge a 3-loss Bama.  Of course, there’s no guarantee that would happen, but at least the conversation would take place among the Committee members.  This nullifies hopes for Texas or Miami.

Personally, I don’t take there will be any changes in the top 10 from what is announced tonight to the final rankings next week.  Even if Bama loses to UGA, I think they remain at #10 and make the playoffs with 3 losses.  The Committee would be creating a massive disincentive for all teams going forward if making it to your conference championship game can cost you a spot in the Playoffs you already earned.  Going forward, teams would intentionally lose just to avoid their conference championship games (for example, either Ohio St or Indiana could have intentionally lost last weekend to avoid the Big Ten CG, and they’d still make the playoffs).

The only teams not locked in stone at this point are the 2 teams to get the #11 and #12 spots in the playoffs after the AAC, Sun Belt, and ACC championship games this weekend.  AND, if BYU beats Tech, that likely kicks Alabama out of the playoffs at #10 (assuming they lose to UGA).  Both BYU and Tech are in the playoffs at that point.  

 

All true. In short, Texas has a Miami problem. Florida schools are our downfall this year. 

[whereiend]

IMO there is a world where the committee actually follows their stated criteria (SOS and head to head prioritized) and puts us ahead of ND and/or OU. It's not likely but it is possible.

I don't see us slipping in at #12 or whatever.

[Texas fan in Georgia]

If you think people hate Texas now, sneak us into the playoffs and you’ll see hate alright 😂🤘🏼

[EHoff99]

Fan Duel currently has Texas at +1300 to get in

[Neil Leininger]

36 minutes ago, CJ Vogel said:

2023 with a 4 team playoff, Georgia went from No.1 to No. 5 and missed the CFP after losing to Alabama in the SECCG.

Personally I don't think it should have any impact on the losing team in the CCG. But there has been movement before from the committee on losing teams.

Alabama is 100% on the bubble. Their resume is not that great. They need the extra win to remove all doubt. If SMU had 2 losses going into the ACC championship game, they would have lost their spot to one of the 3-loss SEC teams.

[Neil Leininger]

1 minute ago, Texas fan in Georgia said:

If you think people hate Texas now, sneak us into the playoffs and you’ll see hate alright 😂🤘🏼

Ok Hook'Em.

[Neil Leininger]

19 minutes ago, whereiend said:

IMO there is a world where the committee actually follows their stated criteria (SOS and head to head prioritized) and puts us ahead of ND and/or OU. It's not likely but it is possible.

I don't see us slipping in at #12 or whatever.

We need to be 10 or we are out. #11 and #12 will go two of the three conference champs, ACC, Sun Belt, American.

[marathon]

3 minutes ago, Texas fan in Georgia said:

If you think people hate Texas now, sneak us into the playoffs and you’ll see hate alright 😂🤘🏼

Yep, and if we were to sneak in and lose in the first round we would never live it down.

[dblmudpumps]

7 minutes ago, EHoff99 said:

Fan Duel currently has Texas at +1300 to get in

that is a ton of movement. I saw it open at +2500

[TexasOnTop]

Fan Duel has Texas at +1300

 

Edit: I see that I'm late to the party with this news

Edited 1 hour ago by TexasOnTop

[Burnt Orange Horn]

So who is for action from Texas to hold the Committee responsible to discharge its duties as directed rather than pursuing each members personal or pundit CYA move??

🏈🤘🏻🏈🤘🏼🏈🤘🏈🤘🏽🏈🤘🏾🏈🤘🏿🏈

[dblmudpumps]

Holy just saw it at +420

[Jaybird]

+590 on Fan Duel right now

[KelvinMuhammad]

1 hour ago, Gerry Hamilton said:

So essentially is 

11 BYU

12 Miami

13 Texas

14 Vanderbilt 

 

Odds are BYU loses, Miami slides into the 12-seed, and Texas gets pushed out. But what people aren’t saying out loud is that TV ratings matter. The Texas brand and Arch Manning’s star power might tilt things in Texas’s favor especially if Bama gets blowout too.  Right now I'm set to wait until next year

[Steamboat Willie]

As Texas odds rocket (+4000 → +590) isn’t the committee whispering sweet nothings — it’s degens, hope, and hedge money fighting in the streets.

Tonight comes down to one stupid number:

#12 = Chaos alive. Pulse detected. Drinks stay cold.

#13 = It’s dead. Start drawing up 2026 mock drafts.

No narratives. No feelings.
If we’re 13, the committee already wrote the eulogy.
If we’re 12… light the candle and pray for meteor strikes.

[pinkman_90]

👀

[dblmudpumps]

14 minutes ago, Steamboat Willie said:

As Texas odds rocket (+4000 → +590) isn’t the committee whispering sweet nothings — it’s degens, hope, and hedge money fighting in the streets.

Tonight comes down to one stupid number:

#12 = Chaos alive. Pulse detected. Drinks stay cold.

#13 = It’s dead. Start drawing up 2026 mock drafts.

No narratives. No feelings.
If we’re 13, the committee already wrote the eulogy.
If we’re 12… light the candle and pray for meteor strikes.

same stuff happened in 2023 the year we played Washington.... vegas is no joke 

[Realist Horn]

Miami is +820 to make it, so maybe Texas doesn’t have a Miami problem - Vandy’s odds are worse. 
 

[4thandFive]

Just now, Realist Horn said:

Miami is +820 to make it, so maybe Texas doesn’t have a Miami problem - Vandy’s odds are worse. 
 

STOP GIVING ME HOPE!!! lol

[CHorn427]

1 hour ago, alrightalrightalright said:

If it’s:

10. Alabama

11. BYU

12. Miami

13. Texas

and Bama and BYU get smoked…. Maybe. But I’m not holding my breath this weekend. Almost suffocated waiting for chaos last weekend lol

It will be impossible to get in if we’re 13. Bama and BYU losing would only open up 1 spot. 11th and 12th spots are going to autobids

[CoachBobbyFinstock]

What do those changing odds mean?

[Realist Horn]

2 minutes ago, CoachBobbyFinstock said:

What do those changing odds mean?

Vegas is giving Texas a better chance to make the CFP the higher the “+” number the lower the odds…you’d like to be in the negatives - Texas’ number keeps coming down 

Edited 28 minutes ago by Realist Horn

[JMarquette]

1 minute ago, CoachBobbyFinstock said:

What do those changing odds mean?

Odds makers are hearing things…