OTF Premium Flawed logic has tainted the College Football Playoff selection process

[Here for the Wins]

1 hour ago, Burnt Orange Horn said:

No, the greater inclusion of teams was a brilliant move.  The NFL is a 32 team private league.  Regression to the mean favors them.  The FBS is a 139+ public league.  It is seeking the best of that public league to include in the playoff.  Playing Portland State is not the same as a SEC or most B1G teams, nor should it be.

Fewer games than the NFL, far more unbalanced schedules leads to inconclusive choices.

[Junior]

12 hours ago, Burnt Orange Horn said:

Which is exactly why total losses is the wrong criteria by which to classify teams.  Head to Head and Strength of Schedule must come first.  It is non critical thinkers who accept the Committee's losses first criteria.  Kind of like the good Germans in the 30s who justified accepting Hitler.

The committee ranks teams as it wants, then works backward to make it make sense. This is the fatal flaw of the Committee which invalidates all of its actions. It has negated the value of marquee match ups.  The consequence of invalidating such elevated competitive matchups means less CFB fans will be able to view them.  Which also means total revenue for the networks and the involved colleges will decline.

If Texas and other colleges with premier football programs will not speak against this obviously flawed model, then the networks must.  Kudos to Jeff for articulating the obvious flaws of this Committee of program fans and professional pundits expressing personal biases over sober evaluation.  The NCAA must do better or be kicked to the gutter by the power conference members.

 

 

[Junior]

I think the fan base is split 80/20. Eighty percent know there's a screwjob happening but don’t know how to push back without sounding like complainers. The other 20% are indirectly defending the committee by using the lazy argument that "you shoulda beat Florida"—maybe they’re just fed up with the season or simply don’t get why a 9-3 team with a difficult in conference and out of conference schedule should get in over a 10-2 team that had it easy for most of the year. 

I agree with the play in game concept but its too late for that this year. However, it's not too late to force the committee to debate live on national TV this weekend. They should be made to explain their reasoning and hear the other side. Many respected media and sports figures—not from Texas—agree this ranking is a screwjob and needs fixing immediately.

[Inspired73]

12 hours ago, marathon said:

The committee should be fired for ranking Notre Dame over Miami even though Miami beat ND and they both have 10-2 records. It’s as if Miami never played ND. Why even play the game.

Flawed logic implies there was logic to begin with. Their selection process is simple. They look at won loss records and pick the prettiest records.

 

I zapped the record information from Marathon's analysis for brevity.  I think he really hit the nail on the head....... the "committee" looks at won/loss records.  That is the flaw. College football is NOT the NFL!  The differences between the best and worst teams in the NFL are small.  Won/Loss records are a valid analysis.

This is not true in college ball.  There is a huge difference between the top 20 schools and the bottom 70 schools.  The Committee and other pundits that use only W/L which is insane.  

Finally, what makes the football tournament so frustrating is that it doesn't even follow the same logic format as all of the other NCAA sports.   I am sure Jeff or someone can elaborate, but the final tournament rankings do not value wins against cream puffs and assign a + value to games with the highest ranked teams. 

Basically, the people that control football are idiots.  Ultimately these guys will force a 48 school (or less) national league upon us.   This will kill the Texas States, James Madisons, etc.   I need to stop now.

 

[Junior]

I believe that if you surveyed college football fans, media members, coaches, and other respected figures in the sport about who deserves a playoff spot this year—Texas or the other contenders (Notre Dame, Miami, Oklahoma, Alabama)—Texas would receive the most support. Their résumé stands out when you look at the combination of overall record, the difficulty of both their conference and non-conference schedules, and their head-to-head results.

Choosing Texas would also avoid setting a precedent that encourages teams to schedule weak non-conference opponents. And when you consider the context of their losses—falling to Ohio State by just one score on the road while outgaining them in total yards, and trailing Georgia by only four points in the fourth quarter—it strengthens their case even further. The committee’s framing of the Florida loss also seems misleading; Florida was far from a Division III-level opponent, had an elite roster, and nearly beat Georgia this season.

[charlie990]

I keep seeing people pointing to the fact that the gators have 4 wins and that looks bad. Are we forgetting Florida has the 2nd hardest schedule in the nation? I know Billy was fired but if that team is remotely healthy they are probably favored against all but 1 big 12 team. 

[charlie990]

Also, what are we rewarding when the 118th (JMU), 125th (North Texas) strength of schedules are getting in the CFP, lol.

[Here for the Wins]

1 hour ago, charlie990 said:

I keep seeing people pointing to the fact that the gators have 4 wins and that looks bad. Are we forgetting Florida has the 2nd hardest schedule in the nation? I know Billy was fired but if that team is remotely healthy they are probably favored against all but 1 big 12 team. 

Forgetting?  No.  I’d wager people are unaware, don’t care.

 

1 hour ago, charlie990 said:

Also, what are we rewarding when the 118th (JMU), 125th (North Texas) strength of schedules are getting in the CFP, lol.

 I wasn’t aware.  I’ve paid quite a bit of attention, but you’re the first I’ve known give this any attention.

 

Thing is this year that Texas and Vandy have the potential to make waves, probably more so than many years.

So the “win it on the field” mantra isn’t exactly accurate this year.