OTF Premium Penalties and other statistics to watch when Texas hosts Texas State

[Jeff Howe]

AUSTIN, Texas — Hopefully, the season opener against Texas State is the sloppiest game No. 5 Texas plays in 2026.

While Steve Sarkisian doesn’t question the effort, intent or physicality he'll see against the Bobcats, he’s not expecting the Longhorns to be a finished product. After watching a few of the games during college football’s limited Week 0 slate, Sarkisian knows his club won’t be perfect on Saturday (2:30 p.m., ESPN).

“You see guys jumping offsides, you see formations, you see personal foul penalties after a catch that's a little bit of a different rule, you see 12 guys on the field — you see some of the stuff,” Sarkisian said on Monday. “To me, the situational masters piece of how important those special situations are in early Week 1, Week 2 type games, those are the things that we're really trying to focus in on to make sure that we don't have those lapses. Only 10 guys on punt return or 12 guys on defense. Hard count, we jump offsides. Those little things are the things that we're really trying to focus in on.”

For a Texas squad that finished the 2025 season ranked 134th in the country in penalties per game (8.3), getting off to a clean start is hugely important, especially with No. 1 Ohio State coming to town for a game on Sept. 12 with major College Football Playoff implications at stake. The same can be said for Texas State, whose seven penalties for 61.4 yards per game last season ranked 104th and 106th in FBS, respectively.

Other than limiting penalties, which would be a long overdue, welcome sight for the Longhorn faithful, here are a few other statistical categories to monitor when Texas squares off with the Bobcats.

TURNOVERS

The focus on takeaways throughout the offseason has centered around Will Muschamp’s defense forcing the issue and creating havoc. When it comes to the opener, however, the attention shifts away from the defense and to how well Arch Manning and the offense can protect the football, something the Longhorns did at an elite level last season.

Only four FBS offenses committed fewer turnovers than the nine charged to Texas in 13 games, one of which was a special teams miscue in the Citrus Bowl. While the offense turned the ball over six times in two camp scrimmages, the Longhorns should find better fortune against Texas State.

The Bobcats tied for 106th nationally with 12 takeaways last season. That’s one of the reasons why GJ Kinne hired Will Windham off Major Applewhite’s South Alabama staff to run Texas State’s defense, even though the Jaguars recorded five fewer takeaways in 2025 (15 in 12 games) than they did in Windham’s first season as defensive coordinator, tying for 43rd in FBS with 20 turnovers forced in 13 games.

Turning the football over is a sure-fire way to let an inferior opponent hang around longer than they should. The better the Longhorns are at protecting the football, the quicker Sarkisian can get the starters out of the game.

PLAY DIFFERENTIAL

Paired together, third-down conversion percentage and time of possession paint a good picture of how well a team controlled a game. The play differential (the difference between the number of plays run on offense and the number of plays defended) between two teams does the same thing.

And with the elements being what they’re expected to be on Saturday, total snaps are arguably more important than the aforementioned metrics.

It’s also an area where Texas struggled last season. The Longhorns had a season-long play differential of minus-47 (minus-3.6 per game), which ranked 14th in the SEC; it got worse in conference play, with Texas’ minus-79 play differential (minus-9.9 per game) ranking last in the league.

The defense forcing turnovers and/or getting off the field on third down are significant factors in how the play differential plays out. But the offense also has to sustain drives, which the Longhorns should be better equipped to do in 2026, thanks to a revamped running game and an offensive line (with help from Michael Masunas as an in-line blocker) better built to control the line of scrimmage.

QUARTERBACK RUSHING YARDS

Manning finishing the game with as close to zero rushing yards as possible would be a great outcome for the offense. It would mean he avoided getting sacked and, instead of using his legs to escape the pocket and keep the offense on schedule, Manning has more (and more viable) options to check the ball down to with Raleek Brown and Hollywood Smothers in the backfield.

The fewer hits Manning has to absorb against the Bobcats, the better everyone will feel heading into the Ohio State game. Brad Jackson’s legs, on the other hand, can put stress on the Texas defense in multiple ways.

According to Pro Football Focus, Jackson rushed for 391 yards on scrambles (No. 9 in FBS) and gained 478 yards on designed runs (No. 23 in FBS). The Bobcats’ signal-caller was one of only seven FBS quarterbacks to rack up at least 450 yards on designed runs and scramble for at least 350 yards (Jackson’s 58 rushing attempts on scrambles were the second-most in FBS, according to PFF).

Whether it’s Justin Cryer, Derek Williams Jr. or another Longhorn defender, Kinne would be smart to look for the path of least resistance (i.e., limiting the number of times his offense challenges Rasheem Biles, Colin Simmons or another proven playmaker) when targeting Texas players to put in a run/pass conflict.

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[Joe Z]

Man Jeff on a heater today 🤘🤘 you know me I’ll be looking at penalties like a fly to sh*t lol 😂 

[Your mom loves Arch too]

Great stuff Jeff! Controlling our controllables is what I’m looking for, penalties are just a gut punch!

[SuperDave0805]

1 Can Texas consistently get positve yds rushing

2 Can Texas avoid 2nd and 3rd and long

3 Can the retooled secondary become hold up against a good Texas St passing game

[ArizonaLonghorn]

"Only four FBS offenses committed more turnovers than the nine charged to Texas in 13 games"

You wrote "more turnovers" but I'm pretty sure you meant "fewer" right Jeff?

[Joe Naural]

Loooking uttter domination

intimidation

 

Foot on neck …..makem call us Uncle!!!!!! Steal their women 

Anything less …im turning Radio off!!!

 

[Jeff Howe]

8 minutes ago, ArizonaLonghorn said:

"Only four FBS offenses committed more turnovers than the nine charged to Texas in 13 games"

You wrote "more turnovers" but I'm pretty sure you meant "fewer" right Jeff?

Yes

[Neil Leininger]

For me, this season is about penalties. Sarkisian's teams have gotten worse every year, that needs to change to make a run into and through the CFPs. I think going from #132 down into the top 50s would mean Texas is handling the flags giving their uber-talented squad more chances to make game-changing plays and burying teams.

[HonkEm]

The Quarterback rushing yards part of this discussion:

"""QUARTERBACK RUSHING YARDS

Manning finishing the game with as close to zero rushing yards as possible would be a great outcome for the offense. It would mean he avoided getting sacked and, instead of using his legs to escape the pocket and keep the offense on schedule, Manning has more (and more viable) options to check the ball down to with Raleek Brown and Hollywood Smothers in the backfield.

The fewer hits Manning has to absorb against the Bobcats, the better everyone will feel heading into the Ohio State game. Brad Jackson’s legs, on the other hand, can put stress on the Texas defense in multiple ways.

According to Pro Football Focus, Jackson rushed for 391 yards on scrambles (No. 9 in FBS) and gained 478 yards on designed runs (No. 23 in FBS). The Bobcats’ signal-caller was one of only seven FBS quarterbacks to rack up at least 450 yards on designed runs and scramble for at least 350 yards (Jackson’s 58 rushing attempts on scrambles were the second-most in FBS, according to PFF).

Whether it’s Justin Cryer, Derek Williams Jr. or another Longhorn defender, Kinne would be smart to look for the path of least resistance (i.e., limiting the number of times his offense challenges Rasheem Biles, Colin Simmons or another proven playmaker) when targeting Texas players to put in a run/pass conflict."""

 

Sorry JEFF...I probably agree with 99% of your posts on this board, but this one, i am having problems with..

I get what you’re trying to say, but the “zero rushing yards = good outcome” thing doesn’t really hold up. Zero rushing yards usually means the QB didn’t scramble, didn’t extend plays, and probably took a couple sacks instead of escaping. That’s not a win for the offense.

Arch avoiding unnecessary hits? Sure. Arch becoming a statue? That’s not how Sark coaches quarterbacks.

Scrambling is literally one of the best ways to avoid hits - you’re choosing the angle, not standing still waiting for a 260‑lb dude to tee off on you. And check‑downs aren’t some magic solution; they’re the emergency exit when the first two reads aren’t there. If Arch has to check down all night instead of extending plays, that’s actually a sign the offense isn’t functioning.

And the funny part is you praise Brad Jackson for stressing defenses with his legs… then turn around and say Texas is better off if Arch never uses his. Why would mobility be a weapon for them but a liability for us?

A couple scrambles and a keeper or two are exactly how you keep the offense on schedule, avoid sacks, and make our game with Texas State or OSU prepare for more than just drop‑back passing. Zero rushing yards isn’t a “great outcome.” It’s just a static offense

Sorry

[mmdaytontexas]

1 hour ago, HonkEm said:

The Quarterback rushing yards part of this discussion:

"""QUARTERBACK RUSHING YARDS

Manning finishing the game with as close to zero rushing yards as possible would be a great outcome for the offense. It would mean he avoided getting sacked and, instead of using his legs to escape the pocket and keep the offense on schedule, Manning has more (and more viable) options to check the ball down to with Raleek Brown and Hollywood Smothers in the backfield.

The fewer hits Manning has to absorb against the Bobcats, the better everyone will feel heading into the Ohio State game. Brad Jackson’s legs, on the other hand, can put stress on the Texas defense in multiple ways.

According to Pro Football Focus, Jackson rushed for 391 yards on scrambles (No. 9 in FBS) and gained 478 yards on designed runs (No. 23 in FBS). The Bobcats’ signal-caller was one of only seven FBS quarterbacks to rack up at least 450 yards on designed runs and scramble for at least 350 yards (Jackson’s 58 rushing attempts on scrambles were the second-most in FBS, according to PFF).

Whether it’s Justin Cryer, Derek Williams Jr. or another Longhorn defender, Kinne would be smart to look for the path of least resistance (i.e., limiting the number of times his offense challenges Rasheem Biles, Colin Simmons or another proven playmaker) when targeting Texas players to put in a run/pass conflict."""

 

Sorry JEFF...I probably agree with 99% of your posts on this board, but this one, i am having problems with..

I get what you’re trying to say, but the “zero rushing yards = good outcome” thing doesn’t really hold up. Zero rushing yards usually means the QB didn’t scramble, didn’t extend plays, and probably took a couple sacks instead of escaping. That’s not a win for the offense.

Arch avoiding unnecessary hits? Sure. Arch becoming a statue? That’s not how Sark coaches quarterbacks.

Scrambling is literally one of the best ways to avoid hits - you’re choosing the angle, not standing still waiting for a 260‑lb dude to tee off on you. And check‑downs aren’t some magic solution; they’re the emergency exit when the first two reads aren’t there. If Arch has to check down all night instead of extending plays, that’s actually a sign the offense isn’t functioning.

And the funny part is you praise Brad Jackson for stressing defenses with his legs… then turn around and say Texas is better off if Arch never uses his. Why would mobility be a weapon for them but a liability for us?

A couple scrambles and a keeper or two are exactly how you keep the offense on schedule, avoid sacks, and make our game with Texas State or OSU prepare for more than just drop‑back passing. Zero rushing yards isn’t a “great outcome.” It’s just a static offense

Sorry

I agree with this. Arch is actually a better QB when he's running. He was terrible in the first half of the Aggie game 8 of 21 for 38.1%. Then in the 2nd half he started scrambling and running, and he started to connect on his passes 6 of 8 for 75%. His overall passing % was not even 50% at 48.27, but that was because of that first half where he was a statue. 

[Here for the Wins]

I think it’s just stay healthy versus Texas State because we should win going away.