OTF Premium One Burning Question: Can Texas win the line-of-scrimmage battle against Ohio State?

[Jeff Howe]

It’s time to tackle “One Burning Question,” an On Texas Football in-season feature where we’ll examine a question facing the Texas Longhorns entering a game.

On Sunday, we’ll revisit the question to see whether Steve Sarkisian’s team answered it successfully.

This week, with No. 4 Texas hosting No. 1 Ohio State on Saturday (6:30 p.m., ABC), the question is:

Can the Longhorns win the line-of-scrimmage battle against the Buckeyes?

In the back-to-back losses the Longhorns have suffered at the hands of the Buckeyes, rushing yards have only told part of the story in the trenches.

When Ohio State ended Texas’ 2024 season with a College Football Playoff semifinal win in the Cotton Bowl, the Buckeyes out-rushed the Longhorns by 23 yards, 81-58. Last season, Texas took advantage of Matt Patricia deploying more resources to defend Arch Manning and the passing game, racking up 166 yards on 37 attempts and leaving Columbus with a plus-89 edge on the ground in a loss.

Rushing yardage isn’t the only way to determine which team wins in the trenches. Those other areas, unfortunately, have been problematic for the Longhorns against the Buckeyes.

Fourth down, for instance, was a consequential down in the first two rounds of a college football blue-blood trilogy.

The Buckeyes are 2-for-3 on fourth down in their last eight quarters against Texas. One of those conversions was an 18-yard run by Will Howard on fourth-and-2 in the fourth quarter of the Cotton Bowl, which kept a 13-play, 88-yard touchdown drive alive. The other came in last year’s game, when CJ Donaldson scored the first touchdown on a 1-yard run that capped a 13-play, 80-yard drive.

The Longhorns, meanwhile, went 1-for-3 on fourth down in the Cotton Bowl, with one failed attempt resulting in Jack Sawyer’s game-clinching 83-yard scoop-and-score. Texas was 1-for-5 on fourth down in last season’s loss, including a failed quarterback sneak on fourth-and-goal at the 1-yard line, a fourth-quarter drive that stalled in the red zone and the offense’s last possession, which ended with Manning finding Jack Endries under duress two yards short of the line to gain on fourth-and-5 from midfield.

Clearly, Ohio State’s pressure on Manning last season and Quinn Ewers in the Cotton Bowl significantly tipped the scales in the Buckeyes’ favor.

The Longhorns pressured Howard on 11 of his 36 dropbacks (a 30.6 percent pressure rate, according to Pro Football Focus) in the CFP semifinal, resulting in an interception and two sacks. Ohio State turned the heat up a few more notches on Ewers, who was pressured on 20 of 44 dropbacks (45.5 percent pressure rate). Ewers was 6-for-15 throwing the football when pressured and was sacked four times. Texas only pressured Julian Sayin on five of his 20 dropbacks last season (the Buckeyes played with heavier personnel and designed a game plan that protected Sayin from making a potential game-changing mistake in his first start), with no negative plays to show for the few times the Longhorns moved the Heisman Trophy finalist off his spot. Manning was pressured on 41.2 percent of his dropbacks (14 of 34), and while his ability to get away from the rush resulted in only one Ohio State sack, a 5-for-10, 60-yard day with an interception meant Patricia’s defense did its job.

Sarkisian's offseason changes to the roster and coaching staff weren’t just to get over the hump against the Buckeyes. Still, a quarterback with a full season as QB1 under his belt, a running back room with a new coach and an infusion of juice from the transfer portal, a revamped offensive line, the addition of a havoc defender the caliber of Rasheem Biles and Will Muschamp’s desire to dictate the terms of the game when sending in the defensive signals should make Texas more equipped to finish the job in the fourth quarter.

Given the perimeter skill talent on the field and the quarterback play on both sides, the winner could be decided by whichever team can defend the run more often with a light box (six defenders or less).

Both offensive play-callers (former Atlanta Falcons head coach and Pittsburgh Steelers offensive coordinator Arthur Smith calls the plays for Ryan Day's Ohio State offense) don’t mind using 12 personnel (two tight ends). Getting either offense to keep an extra tight end on the field is a win, with a capable running back or wide receiver relegated to spectator status on the sideline.

The Longhorns have the tools to protect Manning, disrupt Sayin and control the running game well enough to win.

We're roughly 24 hours away from seeing how it plays out and whether Texas can deliver a powerful statement that 2026 might indeed be different.

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[Jeff Howe]

I can't remember the last time I struggled this much to pick a winner in a Texas game. I've boiled it down to drawing first blood and defending the run with a light box as the two things the Longhorns can do to win.

The line-of-scrimmage battle is nuanced. But Texas can win in the trenches against Ohio State.

We'll see if the Longhorns will in about 24 hours.

[Bunk Moreland]

That Ohio State line is shaky. I said this in another thread, but Muschamp might pull a Kirby and try to just overwhelm the OSU line and Sayin the way Georgia did to Texas in DKR. Sayin might be better than Ewers under pressure, but not much. To me, that’s the recipe to win this game, along with stopping the run, because I genuinely think Texas will move the ball and score on that OSU D.

[BurntOrangeHorn]

I think both DL prevail, but Texas has better pass blocking allowing Arch to hit some key throws!

Also, Arch will hit Raleek and Smothers coming out if the backfield for some critical conversions.

🤘🏻🤘🏼🤘🤘🏽🤘🏾🤘🏿

Edited 10 hours ago by BurntOrangeHorn

[Baron]

6 hours ago, Jeff Howe said:

I can't remember the last time I struggled this much to pick a winner in a Texas game. I've boiled it down to drawing first blood and defending the run with a light box as the two things the Longhorns can do to win.

The line-of-scrimmage battle is nuanced. But Texas can win in the trenches against Ohio State.

We'll see if the Longhorns will in about 24 hours.

You're asking questions about the LOS. Are you questioning Goosby & Baker? The IOL is suspect against the OSU defense. Are you doubting Simmons, Biles and Kanu on the DL?

OSU lost five defensive studs in the NFL draft after the second round. They will be hard to replace. 

Have some faith. 

[mcwast]

it’s reasonable to have a little “show me” baked in to a game like this.  we’ve struggled against the buckeyes and georgia the last few years.  we may have the potential, but per DKR, that just means we haven’t done it yet.

i am cautiously optimistic.  i’m ready to get down there!

 

[Thanos72]

I know we aren’t allowed to use the f word but if he hasn’t updated his slide protections or disguised term better, the elite teams will take advantage. I hope champ pointed out the ol call tendencies to help. We still get very little push upfield. We patty cake which stinks for runs but why we’re decent at pass blocking.

[Jeff Howe]

3 hours ago, mcwast said:

 

i am cautiously optimistic. 

 

Perhaps the phrase of the day at first light.