OTF Premium Monday's Key to the Game | Monday 4:30 p.m.

[CJ Vogel]

Key to the game?

Converting 1st and 2nd downs into positive gains to set up third and short is the biggest point of emphasis in my eyes going into this weekend's contest against Oklahoma.

 

A look at every 3rd down Texas faced against OU in 2025:

• 3rd & 23
• 3rd & 12
• 3rd & 30
• 3rd & 10 ... converted
• 3rd & 1 ... converted
• 3rd & 3 (goal line)
• 3rd & 1 ... converted
• 3rd & 8 ...converted
• 3rd & 8 ... converted (touchdown)
• 3rd & 7 ... converted
• 3rd & 7 ... converted
• 3rd & 2 ... converted
• 3rd & 19 
• 3rd & 7
• 3rd & 2 ... converted
• 3rd & 12

Pretty easy trend to decipher here.

• 0–3 on 3rd & 15+
• 1–6 on 3rd & 10+
• 5–11 on 3rd & 7+
• 4–5 conversion rate on 3rd & 5 or less

 

Texas has not been great in these exact situations. Against Tennessee, the Longhorns average distance to go on 3rd downs was 9.0.

On 3rd and short, Texas was 2–2. On 3rd & long (9+), the Longhorns were 0–4.

Oklahoma has a superb front seven with the interior defensive line leading the way. The edge rushers of Taylor Wein and PJ Adebawore being two incredibly toolsy edge rushers as well.

Not allowing that group to pin their ears back and rush the passer will be key in my eyes.

[NothinButDaHorns34]

Run the ball, stop the run, stay in third & manageable on offense and weather the storm because crazy things are bound to happen in this game. 

[CJ Vogel]

15 minutes ago, NothinButDaHorns34 said:

Run the ball, stop the run, stay in third & manageable on offense and weather the storm because crazy things are bound to happen in this game. 

Crazy things indeed. With Mateer we may see someone never done before in the sport  

[BurntOrangeHorn]

16 minutes ago, CJ Vogel said:

Crazy things indeed. With Mateer we may see someone never done before in the sport  

????  🤷‍♀️🤷🏼‍♂️🤷🏿‍♂️🤷🏼

[syracusehorn]

Good observation, @CJ Vogel. This team seems to make the simple things difficult. On paper this one should be a runaway, but those are the ones that seem to become problems in this series.

[CJ Vogel]

1 hour ago, CJ Vogel said:

Crazy things indeed. With Mateer we may see someone never done before in the sport  

Something^^^^ lol

 as in two consecutive backward throws for TDs

[Thorn007]

Sooners have an excellent Defense. Arch better be on his game

geo stats vs. ou

1st Downs    12

3rd down efficiency    3-12

Total offense     306

[Joe Z]

@CJ Vogel I know this is a hard game for you on Saturday just know I am here for you bud 

[MBHORNSFAN]

2 hours ago, CJ Vogel said:

Key to the game?

Converting 1st and 2nd downs into positive gains to set up third and short is the biggest point of emphasis in my eyes going into this weekend's contest against Oklahoma.

 

A look at every 3rd down Texas faced against OU in 2025:

• 3rd & 23
• 3rd & 12
• 3rd & 30
• 3rd & 10 ... converted
• 3rd & 1 ... converted
• 3rd & 3 (goal line)
• 3rd & 1 ... converted
• 3rd & 8 ...converted
• 3rd & 8 ... converted (touchdown)
• 3rd & 7 ... converted
• 3rd & 7 ... converted
• 3rd & 2 ... converted
• 3rd & 19 
• 3rd & 7
• 3rd & 2 ... converted
• 3rd & 12

Pretty easy trend to decipher here.

• 0–3 on 3rd & 15+
• 1–6 on 3rd & 10+
• 5–11 on 3rd & 7+
• 4–5 conversion rate on 3rd & 5 or less

 

Texas has not been great in these exact situations. Against Tennessee, the Longhorns average distance to go on 3rd downs was 9.0.

On 3rd and short, Texas was 2–2. On 3rd & long (9+), the Longhorns were 0–4.

Oklahoma has a superb front seven with the interior defensive line leading the way. The edge rushers of Taylor Wein and PJ Adebawore being two incredibly toolsy edge rushers as well.

Not allowing that group to pin their ears back and rush the passer will be key in my eyes.

 

The biggest mismatch is our front 7 against their OL. 

[thatdude2]

18 minutes ago, Joe Z said:

@CJ Vogel I know this is a hard game for you on Saturday just know I am here for you bud 

He’s trying to do the reverse jinks on Mateer.

[Joe Z]

13 minutes ago, thatdude2 said:

He’s trying to do the reverse jinks on Mateer.

Jinx 🤣🤣🖕🏼🖕🏼🖕🏼🖕🏼

[Hornmatic]

When was the last time the team with fewer rushing yards won the game? 

[justwinbaby]

Get takeaways, dominate the lines of scrimmage, special teams not a liability (neutral), 150 yards rushing, pressure on Mateer.

[LonghornFan4Ever]

I’ll take a Longhorns rushing performance like the Falcons are doing on MNF in the Superdome.

[watty7796]

Special Teams can not set you back.  Penalties..defense has to force turnovera for short field opportunities for the offence

[westx]

7 hours ago, NothinButDaHorns34 said:

Run the ball, stop the run, stay in third & manageable on offense and weather the storm because crazy things are bound to happen in this game. 

if by "weather the storm" translates for Sark to be patient, I agree 100%.  Nothing wrong with punting and playing the field position game.  Don't put the offense in a position for turnovers, especially early on.  Texas has all of the advantages if they just don't beat themselves with penalties and turnovers