What is more likely: 7-5 or CFP?

[AustinsTruth]

Currently sitting at 4-2 with wins over Ohio State and Tennessee, with losses to 3-3 OU and 5-2 Florida. Remaining games: 

vs Ole Miss ---Bad defense, gonna have to score some points most likely

vs Miss. St. ---If Kamario Taylor is out, this game becomes exponentially easier. 

@ Mizzou ---Hard to predict if the team that smoked Florida and A&M shows up or the team that got smoked by Ole Miss/lost to Miss. St. shows up

@ LSU ---Not confident at all

vs Arkansas ---Only 99%+ confidence game

@ A&M ---Like OU, will we be the only game they look competent in?

Generally, feel like we should have a very good chance against Miss. State, especially if Kamario Taylor is out. Arkansas is a win, otherwise there will be no coaches left. Those are the only two remaining games on the schedule that seem like there is a 80%+ of winning. If the team plays well on Saturday, I like their chances of at least 8-4. If they play poorly again on Saturday, we could be staring 7-5 or 6-6 directly in the face. 

[SB21]

Sad this topic is even a conversation right now…

[AJJ_Sports]

#ALLIN26

[AustinsTruth]

14 minutes ago, SB21 said:

Sad this topic is even a conversation right now…

Agree, but it seems like reality at the moment. 

[jcash02]

Even if we won out, we'd still be a fringe CFP team. Having 2 losses to unranked teams is gonna be used against us. 

[Joe Z]

All brakes 26 

[John F.]

Going 5-1 would be a feat, and it still may not be enough to get in the playoff, especially with the possibility of 3 big 12 teams getting in. 7-5 would mean losing to Ole Miss, LSU, and Missouri, which is very plausible. I lean 7-5 is more likely. 

[Deej]

14 minutes ago, jcash02 said:

Even if we won out, we'd still be a fringe CFP team. Having 2 losses to unranked teams is gonna be used against us. 

If we win out we are in. We have the hardest schedule in the country and Florida is ranked 

[AustinsTruth]

24 minutes ago, jcash02 said:

Even if we won out, we'd still be a fringe CFP team. Having 2 losses to unranked teams is gonna be used against us. 

You beat Ohio State before their QB got hurt and Tennessee before they beat Alabama. The teams we would beat the rest of the season would make our resume untouchable with the quality of wins. Zero chance they leave Texas out with a 10-2 record having wins over those teams. 

[AustinsTruth]

17 minutes ago, John F. said:

Going 5-1 would be a feat, and it still may not be enough to get in the playoff, especially with the possibility of 3 big 12 teams getting in. 7-5 would mean losing to Ole Miss, LSU, and Missouri, which is very plausible. I lean 7-5 is more likely. 

With the Big 12 schedule, it seems very unlikely they don't get at least 2 teams in. Same for the Big 10, they will have teams that face 1-2 good teams all year. It is not a good season for a 9-3 team to get in. We would have quite an argument with quality of wins, good news is that losses early in the season mean much less than at the end of the season. 

[Red Five]

7-5, in a big way.

[MBHORNSFAN]

2 minutes ago, Red Five said:

7-5, in a big way.

 

Fire everyone 

[Shmatt]

Unfortunately were potentially facing a 7-5 season which would cause some major shifts in Texas football 

[WRNC]

Jerry Jones: "There are 500 coaches who could have won the Super Bowl with our team."

[hookem1014]

There is no gimme game left on the schedule except maybe Arkansas. I just don’t see how you drastically improve the offense enough to go 6-0. Simmons will miss a few games and maybe even Smothers. I’ve accepted this team is likely going 7-5 or 8-4. Sark and Co are gone in December. I’ll eat my words if they pull it off. 

[Joe Naural]

I would bet 7-5 athis point!  

[TheContractor12]

7-5 , we are not winning out. Arky is the only game left that should be a definite win. How many more times will we beat ourselves? Answer is 7-5

[MBHORNSFAN]

Looks like I found the doom & gloom club... FFS.... I guess ya'll should bet heavy and get rich since you are so confident on us losing. 

[jcash02]

1 hour ago, AustinsTruth said:

You beat Ohio State before their QB got hurt and Tennessee before they beat Alabama. The teams we would beat the rest of the season would make our resume untouchable with the quality of wins. Zero chance they leave Texas out with a 10-2 record having wins over those teams. 

I'd like to believe this...

But I experienced 2008 when our 45-35 head to head win vs OU got discarded and dismissed.

Our 3 top 10 wins last year got thrown to the side for another narrative. 

[TexasLonghorns]

51 minutes ago, Shmatt said:

Unfortunately were potentially facing a 7-5 season which would cause some major shifts in Texas football 

This team isn’t going 7-5 but if they do, I don’t see major shifts coming. 

[AustinsTruth]

57 minutes ago, jcash02 said:

I'd like to believe this...

But I experienced 2008 when our 45-35 head to head win vs OU got discarded and dismissed.

Our 3 top 10 wins last year got thrown to the side for another narrative. 

9-3 no chance, 10-2 they won't be able to keep us out. Would end the season on a 6 win streak including multiple ranked teams. Tennessee is looking like they will have a pretty good record also. Ohio State is definitely vulnerable with backup QBs, but it's still Ohio State. 

[AustinsTruth]

1 hour ago, MBHORNSFAN said:

Looks like I found the doom & gloom club... FFS.... I guess ya'll should bet heavy and get rich since you are so confident on us losing. 

How'd the optimism that wasn't based in reality work last season?

[MBHORNSFAN]

4 minutes ago, AustinsTruth said:

How'd the optimism that wasn't based in reality work last season?

We finished the season 9-3 and just missed the playoffs. Disappointing for sure. But I choose to stay engaged. I will attending every home game, and the LSU game... I will hope for the best but if some want to doom and gloom have at it... They might as not watch then... Seems like a tough way to love live. To each their own..

[jcash02]

33 minutes ago, AustinsTruth said:

9-3 no chance, 10-2 they won't be able to keep us out. Would end the season on a 6 win streak including multiple ranked teams. Tennessee is looking like they will have a pretty good record also. Ohio State is definitely vulnerable with backup QBs, but it's still Ohio State. 

Hopefully so.

I'm just worried about the small steps right now.

Let's get some 1st downs and points vs Ole Miss. 

[NTX_Horn]