OTF Premium Clear Trend to Watch for This Saturday | Sunday 11:05 p.m.

[CJ Vogel]

Trend to Watch for Saturday

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Back with another statistic that isn't too favorable for the Texas offense.

I know, I know. It's not very fun to talk about, and I am sure this is a point that is getting tiresome. But it quite literally could not have a larger discrepancy in conference rankings.

We are back talking about three-and-out rates on offense.

For a few weeks now, I have been tracking SEC offenses and their likeliness to punt after failing to gain ten yards and move the chains on their first three plays of a drive. It has been a true Achilles heel for the Texas offense so far this season, and the number has continued to rise over the last couple of weeks – How? Well, I don't want to get into that.

But, here is the key statistic.

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Texas has the highest 3-and-out rate in the SEC so far this season. In eight games, the Longhorns have a 31.25% rate of going 3-and-out on offensive drives.

On 96 drives, the Longhorns have punted after three plays on 30 so far this season. A sobering statistic. 

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On the flipside, Missouri is the very best in the country at moving the chains on a given drive.

Missouri has the lowest 3-and-out rate in the SEC so far at 12.12%. Only 12 of the Tigers' 99 offensive drives have gone 3-and-out.

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So when it comes to game flow, and when it comes to finding a way to play complementary football, there is no statistic that I have found so far in my early game prep that leads me to think the flow of the game will be more heavily dictated than one way or the other.

How can Texas help itself out?

No false starts, five men in the backfield penalties, or illegal shifts. The Longhorns had one of each against Mississippi State on Saturday in the 31–3 victory.

Playing on the road is difficult in the SEC, Texas doesn't need to make it tougher than it already is.

[CJ Vogel]

A full look at the conference 3-and-out rate.

Has not been a fun statistic to update each week.

[NothinButDaHorns34]

Inexcusable ineptness with an offensive minded head coach, an offense full of draft picks, one of the highest NIL budgets, in year 6, with a quarterback on campus for four years. 

Edited 16 hours ago by NothinButDaHorns34

[rgrhorn]

All gas, no brakes. 
 

[westx]

ugh!  on the bright side, Sark at least called some screens against MSU.  Now if he could also call some tight end slants to slow up the blitzing that we know is forthcoming.

[BurntOrangeHorn]

Interesting that Texas has beaten three of the four lowest 3 and out teams!  

Hmmmm ....

Perhaps turnover margins are more relevant?  Short punting certainly could become a problem.

🤘🏻🤘🏻🤘🤘🏽🤘🏾🤘🏿

Edited 12 hours ago by BurntOrangeHorn

[AusMOJO]

3 hours ago, rgrhorn said:

All gas, no brakes. 
 

Or....All brakes, no gas

 

[OedipusMaximus]

3 hours ago, BurntOrangeHorn said:

Interesting that Texas has beaten three of the four lowest 3 and out teams!  

Hmmmm ....

Perhaps turnover margins are more relevant?  Short punting certainly could become a problem.

🤘🏻🤘🏻🤘🤘🏽🤘🏾🤘🏿

soon to be four of four

[Tuco Ramirez]

Manning, Mateer, and Read leading the pack!

[Jim Douglas]

Sark is just Brent Venables with a better PR team

[Paul L]

I see what you are trying to do here. 😂 

[Nikolas24]

Hope we force more 3 and outs on MU or it’s going to be a long day for the defense. Because we know the offense is going to have a few of them atleast. 

Edited 8 hours ago by Nikolas24

[nineliveslost]

14 minutes ago, Nikolas24 said:

Hope we force more 3 and outs on MU or it’s going to be a long day for the defense. Because we know the offense is going to have a few of them atleast. 

a few ?? I think you mean a lot 

 

Just messing with you . . . 🙂

[ImDirtydan01]

I guess the “bright side” for this is that defense went against Ole Miss, who is second on this list, and they seemingly held them in check for the majority of the game. Obviously, there are injuries now on that side that are more important, but we did that without Simmons, and he could be back this game along with the most important positions on defense still being healthy enough to go.

Edited 7 hours ago by ImDirtydan01

[Connor Vaughn]

Absolutely inexcusable for Sark. 

[Nikolas24]

12 minutes ago, nineliveslost said:

a few ?? I think you mean a lot 

 

Just messing with you . . . 🙂

It very well could be lol but I was atleast counting a few. Hope it’s not much more than that. 

[MBHORNSFAN]

1 hour ago, Jim Douglas said:

Sark is just Brent Venables with a better PR team

 

Yikes 

[Townsend]

Definite leak in the fuel line

[Glass Joe]

ESPN flashed a stat that 35% of Texas’ plays this season on first down have gone for zero or negative yards.  That probably explains the inept 3-and-out number as much as anything else.  It also explains the high number of turnovers.

When you’re constantly in 3rd and long yardage every series, bad things happen (punts, sacks, QB pressure, resulting turnovers).

[Deep in the heart]

2 hours ago, Townsend said:

Definite leak in the fuel line

Leak? That damn fuel line is busted and the car is being towed by the defense.

[BurntOrangeHorn]

4 hours ago, Jim Douglas said:

Sark is just Brent Venables with a better PR team

And you are the cadaver with no brain!!

Elko called looking for you at TexAgs!!

🤘🏻🤘🏼🤘🤘🏽🤘🏾🤘🏿

[Jim Douglas]

19 minutes ago, BurntOrangeHorn said:

And you are the cadaver with no brain!!

Elko called looking for you at TexAgs!!

🤘🏻🤘🏼🤘🤘🏽🤘🏾🤘🏿

 Come on now, cesspool comment would have said venables is better than sark ( I am not saying that, nor do I believe it to be true) but he did make the playoffs last year, beat us head to head this year with a less talented roster, and the side of the ball he coaches is the strength of his team unlike sarks. 

[HonkEm]

Great post CJ, and thanks for continuing to track these numbers. This is exactly why I think the offensive struggles go well beyond Arch. When you're leading the SEC in three-and-outs, it points to a much bigger problem with the offense as a whole. We can't consistently run the football, win the battles up front, or stay ahead of the chains. Arch certainly has things to improve, but it's unfair to put the entire burden on him when these issues have been present for multiple years. The lack of physicality and inability to sustain drives are what concern me most. At some point, we have to address the bigger problem rather than just blame the QB. Appreciate you bringing these numbers and context to the discussion.

[mmdaytontexas]

Why did we hire Sark again? Great defensive coach? PKs defense after year one were always in the top 25 in the country, but it offenses never once reached those same levels. It looks like it's just more of the same.

Common denominators? Sark, Milwee, Banks, Becton, and Flood. That's it. Everyone else on the offensive coaching staff has changed multiple times.

Edited 35 minutes ago by mmdaytontexas

[Tex CJ-7]

The defense will wear down if we can’t improve our TOP.  3 and outs will continue to take a toll. 🤘🏻