1 hour ago, Glass Joe said:

I disagree that Texas is automatically “in” with a loss at LSU and finishing out 9-3. Let’s assume Texas loses to LSU and goes 9-3:

The primary problems for Texas getting into the Playoffs at 9-3 (with a loss to LSU) are both Wake Forest and a second Big 12 team (11-1 Texas Tech) getting into the Playoffs. If both Texas Tech and Wake Forest go 11-1 in the regular season, the SEC will likely only get 4 teams into the Playoffs. And this is where the pecking order within the SEC teams becomes an issue for Texas.

1. Georgia has a clear path to at least 10-2 regular season (more likely 11-1). They’re in Playoffs. Book it.

2. Bama has a clear path to 10-2 regular season. They’re in the Playoffs. (Note: Bama was ranked two spots ahead of Texas this week while both teams were 6-2…that tells me Bama can even lose an unexpected game and fall to 9-3 and still be ahead of a 9-3 Texas).

3. Kentucky is a bid stealer for Texas. Kentucky will be favored in their last 3 games, and will likely finish 10-2 (IMO). Kentucky at 7-1 was ranked ahead of Texas at 6-2, so why wouldn’t a 10-2 Kentucky also be ranked ahead of a 9-3 Texas?

4. Tennessee - they will also be favored in their last 3 games, and should finish at 10-2 (IMO). While Texas hold the head-to-head advantage, does a 9-3 Texas move ahead of a 10-2 Tennessee…particularly after Texas loses to LSU but Tenneseee beats LSU the following week? Doubtful.

The scenario above puts a 9-3 Texas as the fifth best resume / record in the SEC pecking order. If there are only 4 Playoff spots available for the SEC, a 9-3 Texas may be the one left out. Unfortunately, our trump card of the win over Ohio State no longer carries much value as they have now been effectively eliminated from Playoff contention at 6-3 with a back-up QB.

Realistically, I do think a 9-3 Texas will get into the Playoffs as there will surely be some upset of another contender over the next 2-3 weeks (hopefully, SMU beats Wake Forest next week), but there is still a path for a 9-3 Texas to get left out of the Playofffs if all the favorites win out over the next few weeks.

Net-net: Root for SMU and Oklahoma State to win this weekend. Or, hold your nose and hope Aggy upsets Tennessee. If any of those things happen, a 9-3 Texas very likely makes the Playoffs.

The committee said Alabama had a big win vs Miss St at full strength and that was a big reason they were put up high. So the Ohio st win should hold as a top 5 win regardless of what they do with the backups.

I also believe Texas has to win out to be in; dropping a third game puts Texas in the same position last year in hoping the committee gives them credit. The bad losses will again hurt Texas because OU and Florida have shown to be absolute bottom feeders. Had the losses happened to ranked teams, that would have been different, but they were against completely winnable games. And Florida was playing a backup QB.

Looked at the tiebreaker app again and was wrong on earlier post that if Texas wins out they are in. There is a scenario that Alabama goes over us I just saw. Still playing around with the possibilities!

30 minutes ago, TTown said:

Looked at the tiebreaker app again and was wrong on earlier post that if Texas wins out they are in. There is a scenario that Alabama goes over us I just saw. Still playing around with the possibilities!

I've wondered about it, too, but I think it's still too early to make putting much time studying it worthwhile; there are just too many possible scenarios. After next week, the possibilities get more manageable.

With Kentucky they have two losses and both are absolute blowouts and one of those to a team the Texas has already beat. And Kentucky still plays at Missouri. A 2 or 3 loss Kentucky will be behind a 3 loss Texas just based on the resume alone and the blowout losses. Yesterday’s blowout loss for UK was a death blow.

SEC juggernaut beating up every team pretty good in conference. Depth matters. Most dangerous team on that list of have to win out is South Carolina. Dont think anyone wants to play them. Texas finally starting to gain some traction on offense bodes well. Early season Texas showed a lot of fight to get where they are now. Hook Em.

3 hours ago, Jordan Scruggs said:

CFP seeding/rankings aside, I have absolutely zero desire to see Texas in the SEC Championship vs. UGA. I don't care if Texas is guaranteed to go to the CFP even with a loss, I do not want Texas playing UGA and a loss messing vibes up if Texas was to win out prior to the SECCG. And there's the fact that UGA and Texas are super physical and both teams will be up for that game which will in all likelihood result in a few injuries for both teams as a 10th SEC game.

100000000000% agree, could not care less about the SEC championship game. It’s almost punishment for having a good season. If UGA has taught us anything it’s that playing that game with the 12 team format is detrimental even with the “bye”. I’d rather win the last game of the season and have the “bye” week be championship week. You’re probably going to get a home game in round 1 and you get to scout the ccg teams that you might play.

The SEC should just get rid of that stupid game.

Heather has us 4

https://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/50414462/week-10-ap-college-football-poll-reaction-next-top-25

5 hours ago, LonghornFan4Ever said:

Looks like Texas could finish the regular season 10-2 and not have to play in the SEC Championship game because Alabama's win over LSU gives them a tiebreaker over Texas due to better conference opponent winning percentage, so it would be Alabama vs Georgia in Atlanta for the umpteenth time. Texas could end up seeded in the 5-7 range and host a first-round CFP game or end up 4 and receive a first-round bye. I do think Texas must win out to make the CFP now with Notre Dame's win over Miami imo.

There are still a slew of games that could fall in Texas favor. If Texas, Alabama, and Tennessee finish all tied at 7-2, Texas has a very legit shot of advancing to the CG, due to Tennesse being the first team eliminated out of the three then Texas winning out over Alabama because they would be 4-0 against Tennessee, LSU, aggy, and Mississippi State, while Alabama would be 3-1. In fact, if Texas and Alabama finsish 10-2 (7-2) and Tennessee ends up 9-3 (6-3) Texas would advance over Alabama. It would almost be impossible at this point for Tennessee to finish above Texas in the 3-way tiebreaker using conference winning percentage. I would say at this point, if Texas wins out, they would most likely be the team to face Georgia in the final SEC CG.

Edited 2 hours ago2 hr by Neil Leininger

6 hours ago, Glass Joe said:

I disagree that Texas is automatically “in” with a loss at LSU and finishing out 9-3. Let’s assume Texas loses to LSU and goes 9-3:

The primary problems for Texas getting into the Playoffs at 9-3 (with a loss to LSU) are both Wake Forest and a second Big 12 team (11-1 Texas Tech) getting into the Playoffs. If both Texas Tech and Wake Forest go 11-1 in the regular season, the SEC will likely only get 4 teams into the Playoffs. And this is where the pecking order within the SEC teams becomes an issue for Texas.

1. Georgia has a clear path to at least 10-2 regular season (more likely 11-1). They’re in Playoffs. Book it.

2. Bama has a clear path to 10-2 regular season. They’re in the Playoffs. (Note: Bama was ranked two spots ahead of Texas this week while both teams were 6-2…that tells me Bama can even lose an unexpected game and fall to 9-3 and still be ahead of a 9-3 Texas).

3. Kentucky is a bid stealer for Texas. Kentucky will be favored in their last 3 games, and will likely finish 10-2 (IMO). Kentucky at 7-1 was ranked ahead of Texas at 6-2, so why wouldn’t a 10-2 Kentucky also be ranked ahead of a 9-3 Texas?

4. Tennessee - they will also be favored in their last 3 games, and should finish at 10-2 (IMO). While Texas hold the head-to-head advantage, does a 9-3 Texas move ahead of a 10-2 Tennessee…particularly after Texas loses to LSU but Tenneseee beats LSU the following week? Doubtful.

The scenario above puts a 9-3 Texas as the fifth best resume / record in the SEC pecking order. If there are only 4 Playoff spots available for the SEC, a 9-3 Texas may be the one left out. Unfortunately, our trump card of the win over Ohio State no longer carries much value as they have now been effectively eliminated from Playoff contention at 6-3 with a back-up QB.

Realistically, I do think a 9-3 Texas will get into the Playoffs as there will surely be some upset of another contender over the next 2-3 weeks (hopefully, SMU beats Wake Forest next week), but there is still a path for a 9-3 Texas to get left out of the Playofffs if all the favorites win out over the next few weeks.

Net-net: Root for SMU and Oklahoma State to win this weekend. Or, hold your nose and hope Aggy upsets Tennessee. If any of those things happen, a 9-3 Texas very likely makes the Playoffs.

I have said this all summer - mods disagreed - and will say it again. 9-3 Texas is getting in. They'll figure out the rest of the field

6 hours ago, LonghornFan4Ever said:

Looks like Texas could finish the regular season 10-2 and not have to play in the SEC Championship game because Alabama's win over LSU gives them a tiebreaker over Texas due to better conference opponent winning percentage, so it would be Alabama vs Georgia in Atlanta for the umpteenth time. Texas could end up seeded in the 5-7 range and host a first-round CFP game or end up 4 and receive a first-round bye. I do think Texas must win out to make the CFP now with Notre Dame's win over Miami imo.

I thought the 2nd tiebreaker after head-to-head was common opponent results? If so, our 4 common opponents we would be 4-0 and bama 3-1, with a loss to Tennessee. Is conference opponent win % considered before common opponent result?

2 minutes ago, Kelsomos said:

I thought the 2nd tiebreaker after head-to-head was common opponent results? If so, our 4 common opponents we would be 4-0 and bama 3-1, with a loss to Tennessee. Is conference opponent win % considered before common opponent result?

Maybe. I’m just basing it off this site.

1 hour ago, Kelsomos said:

I thought the 2nd tiebreaker after head-to-head was common opponent results? If so, our 4 common opponents we would be 4-0 and bama 3-1, with a loss to Tennessee. Is conference opponent win % considered before common opponent result?

Depends on if Tennessee is also 7-2. Since there was no round robin with the three teams, and each team would be 3-0 vs. common opponents it would go to opponent's winning percentage. That would likely end up with a ranking of Alabama, Texas, Tennesse. Tennesse would be eliminated. Then the comparison would be between Texas and Alabama, and Texas would win that one due to the 4-0 vs 3-1 in common opponents. If Tennesse drops another game, then we would advance over Alabama. If Alabama loses another game, then Texas would advance over Tennessee due to the HTH. Texas really controls its destiny with regards to the final SEC CG.

Edited 19 minutes ago19 min by Neil Leininger

7 hours ago, Jordan Scruggs said:

CFP seeding/rankings aside, I have absolutely zero desire to see Texas in the SEC Championship vs. UGA. I don't care if Texas is guaranteed to go to the CFP even with a loss, I do not want Texas playing UGA and a loss messing vibes up if Texas was to win out prior to the SECCG. And there's the fact that UGA and Texas are super physical and both teams will be up for that game which will in all likelihood result in a few injuries for both teams as a 10th SEC game.

Same. Don’t want to play Georgia until the CFP- Lord willing the day comes and Texas actually gets in.

Edited 14 minutes ago14 min by 4thandFive

7 hours ago, TexasMDcoach said:

If Texas and Bama both win out, Texas will be in the conference title game due to a better record vs common opponents. (MSU, Tenn, A&M and LSU). Bama lost to Tenn.

Gather not play in the CCG, just get the playoffs.

7 hours ago, Glass Joe said:

They’ll likely be favorites in all 3 of their remaining games. They’re only road game is @ Mizzou, who will be coming off back to back losses to Texas and Georgia (and sitting at 6-4 with zero Playoff hopes).

10-2 is realistic for Kentucky…and creates a problem for Texas’ playoff hopes.

No because of Texas wins over ranked teams.