ESPN: Quinn Ewers With A 96.1% Chance To Be NFL Bust

[Blake Munroe]

ESPN took the top seven QBs in the draft and used a formula to determine bust rates among them. Quinn has the highest rate, as you'll see below.

 

The Other Six:

Cam Ward - 38.2%

Shedeur Sanders - 43.5%

Jaxson Dart - 44.3%

Jalen Milroe - 65.7%

Will Howard - 70.0%

Tyler Shough - 78.3%

[Red Five]

So the criteria to not be labeled a "bust" is to at some point become an adequate starter? I'm not sure that should be the bar if Ewers is drafted in the 4th or 5th round. 

[Han Soul Hole]

Well if it's ESPN and math it must be true.  Fvc7 them.

[4thandFive]

It’s not like ESPN is the brand it used to be. They are a shell of their old-school sports news self.

[Tuco Ramirez]

  On 4/14/2025 at 3:01 PM, Han Soul Hole said:

Well if it's ESPN and math it must be true.  Fvc7 them.

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Yeah, I’m going to assume this rating will be as worthless as their FPI.

[awashbump]

They probably would have had Lamar Jackson at a 99% bust rate

[Red Five]

Hold on guys. If the criteria is that Ewers needs to be Kirk Cousins in order to not be labeled a bust, then yeah 96% is probably pretty accurate. 

[ArizonaLonghorn]

I'd like to see their predictions for the past 10 drafts to check how accurate their predictions turned out to be.  Anyone have that data?

96% seems too high, and I'd be surprised if Shough (who played in high school next door to me here at Chandler years ago) and Will Howard are much better than Quinn.

Who was ESPN's biggest miss?  (Guessing Lamar Jackson)  How high do you need to be drafted to be considered a 'bust'? 

Edited April 14 by ArizonaLonghorn

[CJ Vogel]

Haha that’s a wild projection. 

[Hermanator]

I was one of the only ones on Surlyhorns calling this out during the season. He throws a good ball to the flats and intermediate routes, but throws a terrible ball over 25 yds down field. He's immobile. He has really bad pocket awareness. He's injury prone. And he never really improved much under Sark, one of the best QB developers at any level of football. 

Those are just bad signs for NFL success. He needs years on a bench to grow and develop, but his inability to really improve under Sark looks bad for his ability to develop. 

Fellas, we're better off at QB with Arch. We just need to hope Sark can put the level of weapons around Arch he did for the last 2 seasons of Ewers. 

[f1revo]

NFL will really feast on Ewers weaknesses. He needs to just hang around on a roster Garrett Gilbert style as he isn't a starting caliber player.

[Hermanator]

  On 4/14/2025 at 5:53 PM, f1revo said:

NFL will really feast on Ewers weaknesses. He needs to just hang around on a roster Garrett Gilbert style as he isn't a starting caliber player.

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Gilbert was a bigger dude with a bigger arm. More durable. NFL loves that. 

Think about how good Colt had to be at his size just to stick around for a decade as a backup. 

Hate to say it, but it would be a big surprise, and major accomplishment, if Ewers is still on an NFL roster in 2030

[Red Five]

  On 4/14/2025 at 6:42 PM, Hermanator said:

Gilbert was a bigger dude with a bigger arm. More durable. NFL loves that. 

Think about how good Colt had to be at his size just to stick around for a decade as a backup. 

Hate to say it, but it would be a big surprise, and major accomplishment, if Ewers is still on an NFL roster in 2030

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I would be so confused watching Ewers' film if I were in an NFL draft room. Honestly I have no idea where I would slot him. He was obviously banged up most of last year, but he pretty much went from a guy with the golden arm who could make all the throws, to a guy who could somewhat manage a game and throw accurate balls around the line of scrimmage. 

[NothinButDaHorns34]

Quinn’s got a couple of issues that concern me about his NFL future, But i wouldn’t say i predict he’s almost certain to be a NFL bust. 

[Traves]

Idk if I’d go that high but I think there’s a pretty good chance he is a bust but also hard to call someone drafted in later rounds a bust.

[TexasMDcoach]

Wonder what the sensitivity and specificity of their model is or if they are just slinging this out based on very small numbers? I am not betting against Quinn because I think some of his problems may be mental and injury related.  We will see if he is able to correct them.

[GoHorns1]

Would be surprised if Quinn becomes NFL starter

[omarv]

This all depends on what round he gets drafted: not much is expected as far as HOF credentials for a 5/6/7th rounder.  If he's a career backup and gets drafted in the 5th round I wouldn't consider him a bust.  Just my opinion.

 

[HudGar1922]

if your drafted in the 3rd or 4th round isn’t really a bust for a qb.   look i agree quinn doesn’t seem to be a guy who can lead an nfl franchise.   his pocket presence alone makes him damn near undraftable,  but none is taking him in round one or two to change the franchise

[Jordan91]

It’s nowhere near 97% but he has been hurt all three years. He has a deep ball that is not very accurate. When he is healthy he is excellent with mid range passes, but he’s not very mobile. Being a journeyman starter or being a reliable backup is not a bust. It is if you are a first round pick but he won’t be that. 

[whereiend]

Sounds really harsh but I definitely don't see a likely NFL starter in Quinn. That doesn't make him a bust unless he just gets drafted in the first 2 rounds or something. Assuming he is in the 3rd or later he won't be a bust.

Quinn has a number of red flags IMO. Not very big, not very athletic, injury prone, and poor presence in the pocket. Not great vision as a passer either.

The strengths are an NFL starter arm and the ability to execute a complex offense pre snap.

I think he could be a good pick for someone who could use a backup but doesn't need a new starter immediately.

Realistically Quinn should have played another year of college ball but I'm selfishly glad he didn't, just so we can remember him purely as a Longhorn.

Edited April 15 by whereiend

[bierce]

What a change in board opinion about Ewers in 3 months and 5 days.

 

[Jarveaux]

  On 4/14/2025 at 2:40 PM, Blake Munroe said:

ESPN took the top seven QBs in the draft and used a formula to determine bust rates among them. Quinn has the highest rate, as you'll see below.

 

The Other Six:

Cam Ward - 38.2%

Shedeur Sanders - 43.5%

Jaxson Dart - 44.3%

Jalen Milroe - 65.7%

Will Howard - 70.0%

Tyler Shough - 78.3%

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This came out after NFL.COM  had Quinn going in first round . ESPN not very credible. We will know soon . Wish Quinn all the best!

[cmk4pres]

Such Bull Sh!t.

ill take him over J'Marcus Russell, Anthony Richardson, Will Levis, Ryan Leaf, Johnny Manziel and soooooo many others. Hell I bet he is better pro than VY. 

[robertcook91]

I wish Quinn well.  To me, as a Texas fan, his job was to win a lot of Longhorn games, which he did.