Help me understand...New Recruiting Math

[Brazos21]

@Gerry Hamilton @Bobby Burton @CJ Vogel I think some of the nervous nellies out here (at times, me included) are worried that the "don't worry just look at the last few years...believe in Sark" panacea might not be the case this year. As you clearly stated, this year is different. There is a House Settlement to contend with. There are rules in place we've never had before. So, the "business as usual" response to this recruiting cycle, to me, is overly optimistic. As I've stated elsewhere, the math doesn't add up for us. The 2026 roster will have at least 17 super blue chips from existing players that will probably get close to $1 million each (on average)...then add in new 2026 transfer portal players and add the 2026 recruits. How in the world can all of that be covered by $17 million in Rev Share (I assume a number close to that for football next year)? It's easy to say "no worries, NIL will cover the rest"...but that is totally without merit. At this point, no one knows how the clearninghouse will work. So, what are we telling recruits today? Seems we can only make promises that might not come true. I think the results of this recruiting cycle reflect our inability (and transparency) to guarantee a certain $$ level...unlike the assertions made by other schools. Most of our money will be tied up with existing players. Unfortunatley, it doesn't appear that the Texas One Fund frontloaded our existing roster, which Texas Tech apparently did. That would have freed up Rev Share dollars for new recruits. So, in the end, I don't think this December will look like previous years. We aren't going to all of a sudden find a bunch of money. We aren't all of a sudden going to guarantee future dollars...and all those schools out there will continue to take advantage of promises that might not come true...probably banking on the entire settlement being thrown out as unworkable. Who knows???

[TexasMDcoach]

I think you are right but also think the overall effect will not be a killer for us and we will bounce back once the rules are fully known.  We have taken a conservative approach to things which considering to our present roster depth I think is the right move. 

[tommym]

Asian long as Texas gets needs, kids that want to be a Texas. The class will be top 10. I mean Georgia is spending a lot of tight ends. Every year you attack needs and upgrades. So, in some years might be OL or DL ect. Just more adjustments, now if people are cheating or telling kids one thing then they have to broke them, that leaves a bad taste in kids. I think Texas is trying to prevent that. Be upfront.

[Burnt Orange Horn]

1 hour ago, Brazos21 said:

@Gerry Hamilton @Bobby Burton @CJ Vogel I think some of the nervous nellies out here (at times, me included) are worried that the "don't worry just look at the last few years...believe in Sark" panacea might not be the case this year. As you clearly stated, this year is different. There is a House Settlement to contend with. There are rules in place we've never had before. So, the "business as usual" response to this recruiting cycle, to me, is overly optimistic. As I've stated elsewhere, the math doesn't add up for us. The 2026 roster will have at least 17 super blue chips from existing players that will probably get close to $1 million each (on average)...then add in new 2026 transfer portal players and add the 2026 recruits. How in the world can all of that be covered by $17 million in Rev Share (I assume a number close to that for football next year)? It's easy to say "no worries, NIL will cover the rest"...but that is totally without merit. At this point, no one knows how the clearninghouse will work. So, what are we telling recruits today? Seems we can only make promises that might not come true. I think the results of this recruiting cycle reflect our inability (and transparency) to guarantee a certain $$ level...unlike the assertions made by other schools. Most of our money will be tied up with existing players. Unfortunatley, it doesn't appear that the Texas One Fund frontloaded our existing roster, which Texas Tech apparently did. That would have freed up Rev Share dollars for new recruits. So, in the end, I don't think this December will look like previous years. We aren't going to all of a sudden find a bunch of money. We aren't all of a sudden going to guarantee future dollars...and all those schools out there will continue to take advantage of promises that might not come true...probably banking on the entire settlement being thrown out as unworkable. Who knows???

What's a paragraph, Daddy?  🤷🏻‍♂️

[Bobby Burton]

Brazos, all of what you write is true. That's why I've said multiple times that retention is a major part of the conversation.

Yet I still believe Texas will close with an elite recruiting class. That is what Sark has done from his first year to now. I don't think that changes. Winners are gonna win.

[jonbailey]

I love following recruiting, gives me something to do during the off season and makes me more optimistic about the future of the program. Recruiting is all about potential and getting a big recruit or having a strong class makes it easy to project more future wins in my head. 

This year is the first year that I am largely unconcerned with recruiting. Yeah I want the number one class every year but quite frankly that’s unrealistic even for Texas. I hope to still have s strong class but to me this is a rare season where a dominate recruiting class won’t necessarily make the team significantly better. The 2025 squad is stacked with talent and I like the Longhorn’s chances of finally reaching the promised land and bringing home the title. This is a year for wins on the field not necessarily on the trail. I’ll take both but this is the year to watch potential be converted into reality.

Honestly, if this is the year Tech and whoever else wants to blow there wad and risk doing illegal deals let em. Texas will be loaded for bear in 2026 after the dust has settled and will be in a great position for the transfer portal with the kids we are coming in 2nd on. 

@Gerry Hamilton @Bobby Burton @CJ Vogel of the recruits this cycle that Texas has missed on, would any of them start in 2026 if they the commitment had gone the Horns way? I know having a pipeline is important but my focus is on Arch’s two year window at this time. Maybe I’ll feel different in 2027.

[Brazos21]

8 minutes ago, Bobby Burton said:

Brazos, all of what you write is true. That's why I've said multiple times that retention is a major part of the conversation.

Yet I still believe Texas will close with an elite recruiting class. That is what Sark has done from his first year to now. I don't think that changes. Winners are gonna win.

I hear you. In Sark we trust. I just don't understand how Sark can be a closer when there is no money to allocate. He can't just make it up. I have my doubts for this year's class. I do think the market resets next year when there is no more frontloading (a one time anomaly). PS...I love your idea of a floating rev share number...maybe a set percentage of AD annual revenue....no way Rice should have same budget for Rev Share as UT.

[CJ Vogel]

30 minutes ago, jonbailey said:

 

@Gerry Hamilton @Bobby Burton @CJ Vogel of the recruits this cycle that Texas has missed on, would any of them start in 2026 if they the commitment had gone the Horns way? I know having a pipeline is important but my focus is on Arch’s two year window at this time. Maybe I’ll feel different in 2027.

Texas may be passed the point of freshmen coming in and starting immediately. As good as Colin Simmons was coming in a year ago, he only played 20 snaps week two vs. Michigan.

How many true freshmen are set to start in 2025? I would argue none. Texas is deep. Now, that mean they won't contribute and find the rotation. But, ultimately Texas has done such a fine job building the roster and finding pieces via the portal there isn't (and shouldn't) be a need for immediate freshmen to start/play big roles.

[Austalgia]

We have an amazing roster, it just takes constant restock to maintain.  Objectively, we have holes in this class at linebacker, right tackle, and running back, as the options we have chased at these positions are all committed.  Hoping for flips and late evals is fine, but not ideal.  Especially in this environment when big money deals have locked up recruits who like us already, but money isn’t charging. I am hopeful for some coaching carousel to maybe boost our current holes in the class later.  But some of these kids are now committed at their second third choice and just took a payday, so a coaching change might not make a difference. The money will still be there.  And I know it isn’t December, but again, all our offers are committed at the positions above.  Except for Atkinson, which is a crap shoot. And sure, we can fill these later in the portal, but that is expensive, so spend the money now and develop.  Keep the snowball rolling.  So I can watch it while crying from my Alaskan yacht. 

Edited 4 hours ago by Austalgia

[Hashtag]

29 minutes ago, CJ Vogel said:

Texas may be passed the point of freshmen coming in and starting immediately. As good as Colin Simmons was coming in a year ago, he only played 20 snaps week two vs. Michigan.

How many true freshmen are set to start in 2025? I would argue none. Texas is deep. Now, that mean they won't contribute and find the rotation. But, ultimately Texas has done such a fine job building the roster and finding pieces via the portal there isn't (and shouldn't) be a need for immediate freshmen to start/play big roles.

This is such a stupid way to look at 2026 class....you want the class to be as loaded as it can not for 2026 Texas Longhorns season but for 2027-2028-2029. But I guess that's the recurring message around Texas for the 2026 class.

[CJ Vogel]

1 minute ago, Hashtag said:

This is such a stupid way to look at 2026 class....you want the class to be as loaded as it can not for 2026 Texas Longhorns season but for 2027-2028-2029. But I guess that's the recurring message around Texas for the 2026 class.

I am not saying don't recruit good players. 

Top 100 players in the class:

• 2024: 6
• 2025: 10
• 2026: 6...  in July. 

Texas will get close to that 10% number of the top-100 like they did in the No.1  class last year.  

[John F.]

6 minutes ago, Hashtag said:

This is such a stupid way to look at 2026 class....you want the class to be as loaded as it can not for 2026 Texas Longhorns season but for 2027-2028-2029. But I guess that's the recurring message around Texas for the 2026 class.

CJ was answering a question about how many freshman would start, not giving his whole  philosophy on roster management. 

[Bobby Burton]

4 hours ago, jonbailey said:

I love following recruiting, gives me something to do during the off season and makes me more optimistic about the future of the program. Recruiting is all about potential and getting a big recruit or having a strong class makes it easy to project more future wins in my head. 

This year is the first year that I am largely unconcerned with recruiting. Yeah I want the number one class every year but quite frankly that’s unrealistic even for Texas. I hope to still have s strong class but to me this is a rare season where a dominate recruiting class won’t necessarily make the team significantly better. The 2025 squad is stacked with talent and I like the Longhorn’s chances of finally reaching the promised land and bringing home the title. This is a year for wins on the field not necessarily on the trail. I’ll take both but this is the year to watch potential be converted into reality.

Honestly, if this is the year Tech and whoever else wants to blow there wad and risk doing illegal deals let em. Texas will be loaded for bear in 2026 after the dust has settled and will be in a great position for the transfer portal with the kids we are coming in 2nd on. 

@Gerry Hamilton @Bobby Burton @CJ Vogel of the recruits this cycle that Texas has missed on, would any of them start in 2026 if they the commitment had gone the Horns way? I know having a pipeline is important but my focus is on Arch’s two year window at this time. Maybe I’ll feel different in 2027.

Running back is a spot that could be open in 2026. Maybe LB.

[Bobby Burton]

3 hours ago, Hashtag said:

This is such a stupid way to look at 2026 class....you want the class to be as loaded as it can not for 2026 Texas Longhorns season but for 2027-2028-2029. But I guess that's the recurring message around Texas for the 2026 class.

Stop using over-dramatized language, like calling someone “stupid”. State your thoughts and position without going overboard please. There’s a level of decorum required for a healthy exchange of ideas.