OTF Premium Snap Judgments: No. 20 Texas hangs on for a 34-31 win over No. 9 Vanderbilt

[Jeff Howe]

Let’s start with what’s objectively fantastic about Texas hanging on for a 34-31 win over No. 9  Vanderbilt, and that’s the start of the game.

The season-saving closing moments of last Saturday’s 45-38 overtime win over Mississippi State carried the Longhorns into a game at Royal-Texas Memorial Stadium for the first time in 42 days. With those two factors colliding, I would’ve been disappointed if we didn’t see the most inspired, ready-to-go-from-the-jump version of Steve Sarkisian’s team through nine games.

And Texas (7-2, 4-1 SEC) came out like a house of fire.

Less than four minutes into the game, Arch Manning (25-for-33, 328 yards and three touchdowns) and Ryan Wingo (89 yards on two catches before exiting the game with a thumb injury) connected on a 75-yard touchdown, Colin Simmons forced a Diego Pavia fumble on a strip sack and the Longhorns had a 10-0 lead.

I wanted Sarkisian to take the ball first (he didn’t get the choice since the Commodores won the toss and deferred their option to the second half). The opportunity to be the aggressor and set the tone the right way could get Vanderbilt (7-2, 3-2) on its heels.

That’s exactly what happened. The Longhorns never trailed in the latest must-win game of the 2025 season.

I couldn’t have envisioned a better start to a victory that keeps the team’s goals of a berth in the SEC title game and a third consecutive trip to the College Football Playoff alive.

***

Manning achieved back-to-back 300-yard passing games for the first time in his career with the most complete sampling of throws we’ve seen from him this season.

On quick throws, screens, intermediate passes and the occasional shot down the field beyond 20 yards, Manning completed 10 consecutive passes at one point. While connecting on 22 of his final 27 attempts, Manning was 7-for-9 for 81 yards on third down and six of his completions moved the chains.

Manning led Texas to points on six of the offense’s first seven drives, with the Longhorns failing to score only on a two-play drive at the end of the first half.

***

Until the end of the game, when Texas was trying to drain the clock and make the Commodores use their timeouts, Sarkisian called the game he needed to call to position the Longhorns for a win. While I might be a prisoner of the moment, I'll say that the vast majority of the Vanderbilt game is up there with last season’s road win over Michigan and the 2023 road win over Alabama as games in which Sarkisian seemed to push all the right buttons on offense at a consistently high level.

One of the things I liked was how Sarkisian helped the offensive line, which benefited from the return of Cole Hutson from injury.

With Hutson in the lineup at left guard, Texas had the athleticism between Trevor Goosby and Connor Robertson that wasn’t there with either Nick Brooks or Connor Stroh. Sarkisian’s decision to maximize the Longhorns’ advantage on the perimeter with the quick passing game, well-executed screen passes to the running backs and the utilization of pre-snap movement to create a numbers advantage in the running game led to Quintrevion Wisner (75 yards and a touchdown on 18 carries) and C.J. Baxter Jr. (22 yards rushing and a receiving touchdown) rushing for a combined 97 yards on 25 carries.

With only one tackle for loss allowed (Clark Lea’s defense came into Saturday’s game averaging 6.8 tackles for loss per game, which ranked 21st nationally) and the defense sacking Pavia six times (only seven sacks allowed through eight games) to go along with 10 tackles for loss, Texas dominated the line of scrimmage against a team that prides itself on winning with a physical, methodical brand of football.

The hard-to-stomach final few minutes of the game could push the winning trench effort aside. It shouldn’t, but it’s understandable if it’s hard to see it through the muck of an almost catastrophic fourth quarter.

***

The game turned on a play that nearly put the nail in Vanderbilt’s coffin.

Manning’s 33-yard touchdown strike to Emmett Mosley V (69 yards and a touchdown on seven catches) was correctly overturned and ruled an incomplete pass. However, the officiating crew failed to call defensive pass interference or defensive holding on cornerback Kolbey Taylor, who had a handful of Mosley’s jersey, restricting his left arm from helping him complete the play.

Instead of a touchdown that would’ve put Texas up 40-16 (extra point pending) with 4:09 to go, effectively ending the game, Mason Shipley’s failed field goal try from 51 yards out on the next snap put into motion a forgettable end to an otherwise strong outing.

***

Two things are true about the end of the game.

I try as hard as I can to leave the officials out of the discussion of how things played out. With that said, I don’t know what else Simmons (five tackles, 1.5 tackles for loss, one sack, two hurries and a forced fumble) has to demand more holding calls. Even though Trey Moore (three tackles, one sack, one tackle for loss and two hurries) drew one on Vanderbilt’s last possession, it’s hard for me to believe that Simmons’ constant disruption and the Vanderbilt offensive line’s inability to block him couldn’t get him more calls (and I don’t have the that's without getting into the Commodores’ two-point conversion, which was upheld after a review with a flimsy explanation from the replay booth to the ABC crew working the game as to why it stood).

Still, there’s no excuse for the breakdowns on the back end, which helped the Commodores nearly pull off an upset that would’ve dashed the Longhorns’ postseason hopes. Pavia, who threw for 365 yards, rushing for 43 and accounted for four touchdowns (three passing and one rushing), went 12-for-16 through the air in the fourth quarter, racked up 205 yards and threw two touchdowns.

Vanderbilt averaged 11.3 yards per play in the fourth quarter, went a combined 4-for-5 on third and fourth down and converted a fourth-and-19 from its 2-yard line on a 12-play, 89-yard touchdown drive.

Yes, Texas missed Michael Taaffe and Jelani McDonald. But the absence of the two veteran safeties can’t singularly account for the egregious breakdowns in the fourth quarter, which helped make the game closer than it should’ve been.

***

While the closing minutes are ripe for criticism, the Longhorns have a top-10 win in their pocket heading into the bye week.

Manning seems to be hitting his stride, Sarkisian might’ve found something to help the offense click with AJ Milwee’s move to the press box and the offensive line should come out of Saturday’s win with a little confidence.

The most concerning thing coming out of the game is that for two consecutive games against two different passing attacks, the pass defense has been shredded. Texas needs Taaffe and McDonald back in a bad way, but things need to tighten up and get cleaned up.

The Longhorns have looked exploitable in SEC play. With Gunnar Stockton (Georgia), Taylen Green (Arkansas) and Marcel Reed (Texas A&M) left on the schedule, the issues on the back end must get resolved with an extra week to prepare for a highly anticipated trip to Athens on Nov. 15.

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[Jeff Howe]

Issues aside, I'll take 7-2 with one SEC loss going into the last bye week of the season.

[4thandFive]

I hope the loss to Florida was a catalyst and not a wound. 
 

Texas can win out. The move of Milwee to the booth seems to be producing fruit (even if I’m overthinking it). Arch is on fire and the OL looked great. 
 

Should have won by 21. I bet Mosley makes that catch without the hold (almost did anyway), but we’d at least have had 15 yards, a 1st down, and more time. 

[alrightalrightalright]

You nailed it, Jeff. Time to get healthy over the bye week.

[Han Soul Hole]

On D... #18 and #3 are in the struggle bus.  Really disappointed in 3... he looked like a  Jahdae Barron started kot last 2 years and hes just been barley average, IMO.  18 has regressed, although he's not 100%.  

The changes to the OL are evident.  Hard to imagine what took so long for this lineup to get on the field.

Vandy In general, but Pavia, specifically,  were chirping the whole game.  We've had the Pavia love force fed to us through national story telling and im done with that $hi7.  Dude was a grade A prick and glad he gets to wear the L today.

Never thought I'd see worse officiating than what we've endured in Big 12 but jeebus... every week these crews are terrible.  Can we just develop robots and get rid of the bias?  Brutal viewing experience. 

Another W.  The dream is alive.  Sharpen the hedge clippers this week!!

[Alex Butler]

What happened to McDonald?

[Brian Carter]

It feels highly suspicious that the game’s outcome will influence gambling. The spread was 3.5, and our very weak defense was highly questionable. 

[Bdub12]

5 minutes ago, Alex Butler said:

What happened to McDonald?

Concussion 

[Alex Butler]

2 minutes ago, Bdub12 said:

Concussion 

Sorry for him. I wasn’t able to watch the game thanks YouTube Tv 

[WG Carter]

Vandy drive before half...OL was holding E Burke so bad it was incredible . They converted this play and scored.

 

So much holding

 

 

 

[Shmatt]

The Oline was awesome for the most part today, super encouraging 

[Jarveaux]

Gambling should be outlawed in college football. your either a gambler or a fan !

[TexasFanatic]

@Jeff Howe What are your thoughts on scheduling Ohio State etc? I get playing like a solid team but it needs to be “more likely than not” win… if we had played that game, we would be sitting at 8-1 and the conversation is much different. I get CDC wants to play the best… but it doesn’t matter. The cutoff is 2 losses regardless of who they are to. 

[TonyG]

The refs were unbelievably bad with the holds all game long - and the PI on Mosley and the BS 2pt conversion being the worst calls. This should have never been a close game. Unreal how the refs influenced the outcome. 

Glad Pavia and Vandy were taken a peg down. Not a likeable team at all. They kept yapping after every play despite getting dominated for more than 3 quarters. I will be actively routing against them from now on.

[Waxahorn]

And I used to say that Big 12 officials were the worst. You would think that the SEC would be better officiated than this.

[ECHorn]

Don’t underestimate the pinky finger strength of Lefau

[jkates]

1 hour ago, Jeff Howe said:

Issues aside, I'll take 7-2 with one SEC loss going into the last bye week of the season.

This. The primary object of today's game was to win: Mission accomplished.

No team is perfect. Some have more glaring or frustrating issues than others. This team has solved some of its issues as the season has progressed. Let's see if they can solve a few more. 

[TTown]

Send Akina packages NG as soon as possible after the season. Orphey may or may not get a reprieve  . Made a 5'7 Juco QB look like Mahomes smh🤣

[Game of the Century]

SEC refs are awful. The only thing they haven’t done to try to hurt Texas is chest bump our coach and then call him for a penalty.  Our opponents hold and interfere with impunity.  I don’t know how they didn’t overturn that two point conversion when the video evidence was compelling.  

you have to wonder how much the awful officiating is related to the influence of gambling.  Corruption in sports is not a new thing. The only alternative explanations are that a fair number of SEC refs are incompetent or biased.   

[JimR6]

Gilbeau and D. Williams (I think he was the safety) obviously had a blown coverage for the wide open long TD. Which one had the brain cramp? Gilbeau thought he had safely help, and let the WR go. Williams went to a WR in the middle of the field. Oops.

[SuperDave0805]

2 hours ago, Alex Butler said:

Sorry for him. I wasn’t able to watch the game thanks YouTube Tv 

You mean thanks to the greedy ass mouse empire 

[SuperDave0805]

2 hours ago, TexasFanatic said:

@Jeff Howe What are your thoughts on scheduling Ohio State etc? I get playing like a solid team but it needs to be “more likely than not” win… if we had played that game, we would be sitting at 8-1 and the conversation is much different. I get CDC wants to play the best… but it doesn’t matter. The cutoff is 2 losses regardless of who they are to. 

I believe that game was scheduled before the SEC decison was made, Besides its not the Ohio St game that will haunt us its the no show against Florida 

[ThatHornsGuy87]

😳😬

[AusMOJO]

What do you think is the issue with the secondary @Jeff Howe? From what I'm catching up with now, they looked completely lost down the stretch. Is this a PK/Scheme issue or a passing game coordinator one with Akina? Little confused how it regressed that much. I know Baron and Makuba were big losses but it's not like they're bereft of talent. 

Very weird sequence there. Though without them getting a no call DPI on that Mosley play, they don't stand a chance. Either way, it needs to be fixed. Whether it's PK doing it or Akina. No excuse to let a team you should've blown out get back in.

Almost felt like that 2023 TCU game. 

[TexasFight12]

Shipley has been rock solid from inside 50, but the guy just cannot make it over 50 to save his life.