SEC Championship Hypothetical

[TexasFanatic]

If we win out and Bama wins out… it would be UT vs Bama

However, what happens if Bama loses to like OU. 
 

Would we play Ole Miss? Bama still? Aggy?? 
 

Also I 100% know this is a moot point since we have to win out first. 

[CHorn427]

4 minutes ago, TexasFanatic said:

If we win out and Bama wins out… it would be UT vs Bama

However, what happens if Bama loses to like OU. 
 

Would we play Ole Miss? Bama still? Aggy?? 
 

Also I 100% know this is a moot point since we have to win out first. 

If Bama, Ole Miss and Texas win out and TAMU beats South Carolina, it’ll be Bama vs Ole Miss or TAMU. Ole Miss and TAMU would win that 3 way tie breaker over us based on our loss to Florida, then the two way tie between Ole Miss and TAMU might be decided all the way down the list of tiebreakers at “capped relative scoring margin vs conference opponents”.

If the same situation BUT Bama loses to OU, there would be a four way tie and TEXAS would actually be #1 in SEC standings and win the 4 way tie breaker, because Florida would not be counted as a common conference opponent like it would in the Ole Miss/TAMU/Texas tie. It would be Texas vs Bama in that situation.

https://bball.notnothing.net/bracket_cloud.php?conf=secfb

[TexasFanatic]

15 minutes ago, CHorn427 said:

If Bama, Ole Miss and Texas win out and TAMU beats South Carolina, it’ll be Bama vs Ole Miss or TAMU. Ole Miss and TAMU would win that 3 way tie breaker over us based on our loss to Florida, then the two way tie between Ole Miss and TAMU might be decided all the way down the list of tiebreakers at “capped relative scoring margin vs conference opponents”.

If the same situation BUT Bama loses to OU, there would be a four way tie and TEXAS would actually be #1 in SEC standings and win the 4 way tie breaker, because Florida would not be counted as a common conference opponent like it would in the Ole Miss/TAMU/Texas tie. It would be Texas vs Bama in that situation.

https://bball.notnothing.net/bracket_cloud.php?conf=secfb

Damn. The SEC should be ashamed if that is the case. 
 

 

[TexasFanatic]

I guess rooting for Florida over Ole Miss 

[Rocky P]

18 minutes ago, CHorn427 said:

If Bama, Ole Miss and Texas win out and TAMU beats South Carolina, it’ll be Bama vs Ole Miss or TAMU. Ole Miss and TAMU would win that 3 way tie breaker over us based on our loss to Florida, then the two way tie between Ole Miss and TAMU might be decided all the way down the list of tiebreakers at “capped relative scoring margin vs conference opponents”.

If the same situation BUT Bama loses to OU, there would be a four way tie and TEXAS would actually be #1 in SEC standings and win the 4 way tie breaker, because Florida would not be counted as a common conference opponent like it would in the Ole Miss/TAMU/Texas tie. It would be Texas vs Bama in that situation.

https://bball.notnothing.net/bracket_cloud.php?conf=secfb

Texas wins out and they sre in the sec championship game regardless of what else happens.

[TexasFanatic]

Just now, Rocky P said:

Texas wins out and they sre in the sec championship game regardless of what else happens.

Is that true? I just saw the calculator 

[Rocky P]

17 minutes ago, TexasFanatic said:

Is that true? I just saw the calculator 

Bama would be in and we would have the tie breaker iver ole miss   2nd tie breaker is record against like opponents..we would both be 1-1 (uga and florida) and then the next tie breKer is highest rank win against common opponent and we wiuld have that by beating UGA.

[TexasEx_10]

24 minutes ago, Rocky P said:

Texas wins out and they sre in the sec championship game regardless of what else happens.

This is not accurate. Ole Miss has to drop a game or OU has to beat Bama for Texas to get to Atlanta even if Texas wins out. 

[Glass Joe]

28 minutes ago, TexasFanatic said:

Is that true? I just saw the calculator 

No, aggy and Bama would play in the SEC CG if Texas, Ole Miss, and Bama win out.  Texas loses a 3-way tie at a 7-1 record with Aggy and Ole Miss, due to common opponent records (our loss to Florida while both Aggy and assuming Ole Miss beats Florida).

Texas’ best chance is to win out and hope Ole Miss loses to UF or MSU, while Bama also wins out.  That would out Bama at 8-0, and both Texas and Aggy at 7-1, and we win the head to head tiebreaker.  Ole Miss would be 6-2 and not part of any second place tie breakers.

Winning out does solidify Texas in the Playoffs but not the SEC CG.

Edited 12 hours ago by Glass Joe

[AusMOJO]

I'm not sure we should be worrying about the CCG, at least I'm not. Beating Georgia on the road, where we haven't played well, is a pretty daunting task. Considering they just breezed past Miss State, a team that was about to blow us out if not for a great comeback effort by the boys.

We'll see if the Texas has truly turned a corner when they play next week. But the D has me worried, especially the secondary even with guys coming back from injury. Also get to see if that OL can hold up because last years one got torn apart against Georgia in both games.

Interesting scenario's though. 

[CHorn427]

50 minutes ago, Glass Joe said:

No, aggy and Bama would play in the SEC CG if Texas, Ole Miss, and Bama win out.  Texas loses a 3-way tie at a 7-1 record with Aggy and Ole Miss, due to common opponent records (our loss to Florida while both Aggy and assuming Ole Miss beats Florida).

Texas’ best chance is to win out and hope Ole Miss loses to UF or MSU, while Bama also wins out.  That would out Bama at 8-0, and both Texas and Aggy at 7-1, and we win the head to head tiebreaker.  Ole Miss would be 6-2 and not part of any second place tie breakers.

Winning out does solidify Texas in the Playoffs but not the SEC CG.

It will go deep into the tiebreakers between Ole Miss and TAMU if it gets to be a 3 way tie between them and us. It’s difficult to say who would win it right now

[CHorn427]

1 hour ago, TexasFanatic said:

I guess rooting for Florida over Ole Miss 

That would be an epic F up by Ole Miss. They should be about 28 pt favorites at this rate 

[Rocky P]

6 hours ago, TexasEx_10 said:

This is not accurate. Ole Miss has to drop a game or OU has to beat Bama for Texas to get to Atlanta even if Texas wins out. 

Ole miss has a loss to uga.  If we beat uga that would give us the tie breaker over ole miss

[Rocky P]

5 hours ago, CHorn427 said:

It will go deep into the tiebreakers between Ole Miss and TAMU if it gets to be a 3 way tie between them and us. It’s difficult to say who would win it right now

Its not difficult.  

Tiebreaker 1 - head to head.  We would own that over tamu.  And we dont have a head to head with ole miss

Tiebreaker 2 - record against like opponenets.  We wiuld tie ole miss.  (Both 1-1 against UGA and florida)

Tie breaker 3 - highest ranked common opponent win.  This would be UGA. And in this hypothetical - texas beats uga.  So we would be in.

[TexasEx_10]

1 hour ago, Rocky P said:

Its not difficult.  

Tiebreaker 1 - head to head.  We would own that over tamu.  And we dont have a head to head with ole miss

Tiebreaker 2 - record against like opponenets.  We wiuld tie ole miss.  (Both 1-1 against UGA and florida)

Tie breaker 3 - highest ranked common opponent win.  This would be UGA. And in this hypothetical - texas beats uga.  So we would be in.

It’s not that difficult.

Play around with the scenarios calculator, which I have been using since our last year in the Big 12: https://bball.notnothing.net/bracket_cloud.php?conf=secfb

If Ole Miss, Alabama and Texas win out, Texas is NOT playing in the SEC championship game. Ole Miss and Bama are. Texas can win out but will also need help to make Atlanta. Peter Burns (SEC Network) has also discussed and posted about scenarios. 

[GoHorns1]

9 hours ago, TexasFanatic said:

I guess rooting for Florida over Ole Miss 

Texas wins out and we in the playoffs screw the SEC CG

[CHorn427]

2 hours ago, Rocky P said:

Its not difficult.  

Tiebreaker 1 - head to head.  We would own that over tamu.  And we dont have a head to head with ole miss

Tiebreaker 2 - record against like opponenets.  We wiuld tie ole miss.  (Both 1-1 against UGA and florida)

Tie breaker 3 - highest ranked common opponent win.  This would be UGA. And in this hypothetical - texas beats uga.  So we would be in.

In a 3 way tie or more where not all teams play one another, the head to head results between teams in the tie are essentially ignored, so we would not be in over TAMU based on that in a 3 way tie. It’s actually not as simple as you think it is

[CoachBobbyFinstock]

Texas won’t win out so you won’t have to worry about it. I’m hoping we can pull off 2/3 with the secondary I’ve watched get torched by Kent, Vandy and Miss St. 

Also our Oline isn’t good enough. They were better against Vanderbilt but Smart/Georgia will present a much different problem.  This is also assuming Sarkisian will stay in 11 and away from 12 while the Manning step forward is a real thing. 

Edited 3 hours ago by CoachBobbyFinstock

[CHorn427]

5 minutes ago, CoachBobbyFinstock said:

Texas won’t win out so you won’t have to worry about it. I’m hoping we can pull off 2/3 with the secondary I’ve watched get torched by Kent, Vandy and Miss St. 

Also our Oline isn’t good enough. They were better against Vanderbilt but Smart/Georgia will present a much different problem.  This is also assuming Sarkisian will stay in 11 and away from 12 while the Manning step forward is a real thing. 

We were playing without Taaffe vs MState and without Taaffe AND McDonald vs Vandy. And Taaffe was probably playing hurt vs Kentucky. If we get those guys back for UGA, then we literally will not be playing with the same secondary we played those games with. The secondary gave up 258 yds and 13 pts vs Kentucky, so not really torched. That was more on the offense not giving any kind of break to the D. 

[CoachBobbyFinstock]

7 minutes ago, CHorn427 said:

We were playing without Taaffe vs MState and without Taaffe AND McDonald vs Vandy. And Taaffe was probably playing hurt vs Kentucky. If we get those guys back for UGA, then we literally will not be playing with the same secondary we played those games with. The secondary gave up 258 yds and 13 pts vs Kentucky, so not really torched. That was more on the offense not giving any kind of break to the D. 

Boley completed 31 of 39 passes (79%) for 258 yards, a career-high completion percentage

Boley has 10 TDs and 7 picks on the season.  He looked pedestrian against everyone else on the schedule minus maybe Tenn but he had to throw it 50 plus times being down so much.

Edited 3 hours ago by CoachBobbyFinstock

[ArizonaLonghorn]

2 hours ago, Rocky P said:

Tiebreaker 1 - head to head.  We would own that over tamu.  And we dont have a head to head with ole miss

I don't want to get too deep into this swamp like I did last year, but I think "head to head" in a 3 way tie only applies if all the teams played each other, and we didn't play Ole Miss so this tiebreaker gets skipped and on to the next one ...

[LonghornFan4Ever]

Winning your conference means NOTHING in this expanded CFP since it no longer guarantees you a first round bye, or unless you’re OU because they used to do it so much.  Since there’s no incentive for winning the SEC, and a potential injury risk from playing in a game like that, the most important thing is to make the CFP.  If you win out (beating a 1-loss Georgia and undefeated Aggy in the process) you’ll probably be a top 4 ranked team and get a first round bye.

[dentonhorn]

We are underdogs on a fairly decent scale to beat Georgia. That is the only scenario I can deal with right now.

[Here for the Wins]

1 hour ago, CoachBobbyFinstock said:

Boley completed 31 of 39 passes (79%) for 258 yards, a career-high completion percentage

Boley has 10 TDs and 7 picks on the season.  He looked pedestrian against everyone else on the schedule minus maybe Tenn but he had to throw it 50 plus times being down so much.

They scored 13 points versus us including an OT possession.  Against us, 78% of passes were within 9 yards down the field.  On the season that is 63%.   So that’s part of the equation.  It looks like against UF he had a better completion percentage but was around that 65% at the shorter distances.

Kentucky had two games coming off a bye this season.  One on the road at USC.  The other versus Texas at home.  One was his first P5 start of the season, one was not.  It stands to reason there was a pointed effort during the bye to give him some simple throws.

His passing grade in his last 4 games from PFF has only Auburn lower than us.  Of course, only Auburn was on the road.

Edited 1 hour ago by Here for the Wins