Portal Dead Week Conjecture: Did USC Get it Wrong?

[DiggsTX]

Did USC play the recruiting game all wrong? 

In my view, they gambled (taking advantage of a lack of solid regulation post-House settlement) and paid high schoolers to stay committed, racking up a huge 35-man high school class and the #1 class in the country.  They went for a first-mover advantage to load up on talented youngsters. 

But given how things have unfolded this portal cycle, it seems like they tried to get an advantage in the wrong direction, spending significant outlays on young unproven talent.  The cost of developing those kids even for a year is not going to be great for them.

If things stay the same, it's likely that big class they signed are either going to (1) cost a ton of money to retain and still won't be proven talent; or (2) are going to hit the portal.  And absent clauses that require buyouts for players to leave, they're not going to get ROI.  (And the enforceability of such clauses is also up in the air and will take significant legal fees to enforce).  

Was this a gross miscalculation?  Or maybe they figured they couldn't contend in the portal and made the conscious decision to load up on young talent at a lower price?  Either way, it seems like they went left while most of the college world went right.  And I'm not sure it bodes well for Lincoln Riley and Chad Bowden.

Interested in everyone's thoughts @Bobby Burton @Gerry Hamilton @CJ Vogel @Jeff Howe

I'll hang up and listen.

[Gerry Hamilton]

That’s a great Q 

Majority would say yes. Such a big class of HS kids … massive NIL HS spend 

Will be good look back in 2-3 years

[mmdaytontexas]

Interesting question. 

I think only time will tell, but we know from experience that they had better play and pay those 5-stars or they will bolt as soon as they have the chance, especially with LA becoming too expensive to live in and such a dirty crap hole in many areas. o

Edited 20 hours ago by mmdaytontexas

[Bunk Moreland]

Lincoln might be a year or two behind the times. Interesting that he doesn’t seem to have learned the lessons like the other blue bloods. But then again, this is a guy who burns brisket and has rarely had a good defense in his entire coaching career, so perhaps unsurprising.

[ATX16]

Great post!

We can certainly condemn Riley now, but to Gerry's point, we can't totally excoriate him for a couple seasons. Is there a right and wrong way to construct your roster yet? Will the current structure of NIL hold?

Big picture, it's time to figure out how to get a commissioner in place, tweak the playoffs and completely blow up NIL and start over with guard rails. 

 

 

[Aspann85]

Hopefully they tank and Mark Bowman sees the light in a year or two.

[John F.]

Interesting question. I pretty much agree with your assessment. The only way I could see their strategy maybe making sense if they’re targeting 2027 to make a push. Maybe they view this year as a rebuild and a chance to evaluate that huge class. Then next year they keep the best, cut the underachievers and backfill in the portal. Seems risky, especially if your job isn’t super secure 

[whereiend]

Yes I think so absolutely. That class will get looted hard every portal cycle.

[horns96]

Rules start being enforced, they look like geniuses. 

[817 Boxing B]

6 hours ago, mmdaytontexas said:

Interesting question. 

I think only time will tell, but we know from experience that they had better play and pay those 5-stars or they will bolt as soon as they have the chance, especially with LA becoming too expensive to live in and such a dirty crap hole in many areas. o

I love LA... just saying...🤷🏿‍♂️. Frisco is a fancy plantation... and I can say it.. because I pay taxes there...🤣🤣. If the kids don't bolt for the bag if they didn' make the 2 deep, and they don't come back to the table and try to negotiate like terrorists, then in 2-3 years.. they'll be pretty damn good. Right now.. with how things are shaping up.. they'll look like we did at the end of the season, at best.

[817 Boxing B]

2 hours ago, John F. said:

Interesting question. I pretty much agree with your assessment. The only way I could see their strategy maybe making sense if they’re targeting 2027 to make a push. Maybe they view this year as a rebuild and a chance to evaluate that huge class. Then next year they keep the best, cut the underachievers and backfill in the portal. Seems risky, especially if your job isn’t super secure 

Basically follow our model this portal off season... a year from now. Sounds like an unnecessary reset for a team that is stuck in nuetral, as far as results, with Riley.

[whereiend]

1 hour ago, horns96 said:

Rules start being enforced, they look like geniuses. 

How so? I think rules being enforced makes it even harder for them. They'd only have $15M or whatever total. How to keep everyone happy with that? Remember every team in P5 has rev share. The rule enforcement would just limit over the cap spending.

[SoldierHorn]

yes, USC got it wrong and will find out. 

That is part of Texas' problem this year the last few years.  When you have back to back to back great recruiting classes, it is very difficult to give them all adequate playing time. This has always been a problem but not only do these players now have a means to change their situation without setting themselves back a year, they also have a monetary incentive to do so.  In this current recruiting climate, they can not afford (literally) to stockpile the roster with talented depth chart backups. 

[whereiend]

2 hours ago, SoldierHorn said:

yes, USC got it wrong and will find out. 

That is part of Texas' problem this year the last few years.  When you have back to back to back great recruiting classes, it is very difficult to give them all adequate playing time. This has always been a problem but not only do these players now have a means to change their situation without setting themselves back a year, they also have a monetary incentive to do so.  In this current recruiting climate, they can not afford (literally) to stockpile the roster with talented depth chart backups. 

With no long term contracts, money that isn't on the field is a complete waste. And it's hard to get true freshman on the field.