OTF Premium Where third-year Longhorns stand entering a critical season for their football futures

[Jeff Howe]

Historically, I’ve viewed Texas players entering their third year in the program as guys facing now-or-never situations.

You can step up and solidify your place on the depth chart or you run the risk of a younger player surpassing you to claim your spot. While there have been instances where guys like John Harris and Tope Imade come out of nowhere as seniors and depart the Forty Acres with a bang, they’re the exception to the rule.

A player’s true junior or redshirt sophomore season has been, for all intents and purposes, a contract year.

That’s literally the reality for the members of the 2024 recruiting class who remain in the program in 2026.

Third-year college football players are now more like NFL rookies. Programs must decide whether to exercise their option to bring the player back for another season (likely, at a higher dollar figure than what the player previously earned) or be OK with them testing the waters to see what they can get on the open market.

How things played out for the 2023 high school signees during the winter transfer portal window should give the crop of third-year Longhorns a road map for how things might play out.

Anthony Hill Jr. and Malik Muhammad had good enough junior seasons to follow through with their expected departures for the 2026 NFL Draft. Arch Manning was always coming back, barring something unforeseen, and Trevor Goosby flirted with beginning his NFL career after one season as a starter. Still, both will be back as redshirt juniors, positioned to be high picks in the 2027 draft.

Although Jelani McDonald, Derek Williams Jr. and Ryan Niblett are among those who chose to return to Texas, CJ Baxter (Kentucky), Liona Lefau (Colorado), DeAndre Moore Jr. (Colorado) and Quintrevion Wisner (Florida State) decided to finish their college careers elsewhere. With NIL and revenue sharing a part of roster construction that's out in the open for public consumption, Steve Sarkisian admitted during his pre-spring practice conference on Feb. 23 that it’s a two-way street when it comes to the tough decisions that must be made in the portal window.

“I'd love for them all to stay, and I'd love for them all to finish what they started here with us, but contrary to, maybe, popular belief, our money isn't endless here either,” Sarkisian said. “We have to make real decisions — where we're trying to spend the money on the players that we have to try to put together a championship roster, but yet not lose sight of how powerful our culture is. Those are difficult decisions to make.”

There’s no right or wrong way to group the 2024 signees when trying to figure out where they stand heading into a fork-in-the-road season regarding their football careers. So, I broke them down into four categories:

 

NFL Bound — Barring something unexpected happening, a sure-fire NFL draft pick in 2027

— Colin Simmons

It’s pretty simple: If the All-American edge defender stays healthy and the combination of Will Muschamp and LaAllan Clark gets the most out of him that they can, Simmons should be one of the first players off the board in the 2027 draft.

 

Proven Commodity — Established, starting-caliber player with more to prove before the NFL becomes a realistic option

— Brandon Baker

— Ryan Wingo

The goal for Baker and Wingo should be to position themselves as McDonald did after the 2025 season, where he had a legitimate stay-or-go decision to make. Baker and Wingo could come back in 2027 and be featured in more prominent roles. Or they could decide to strike while the iron is hot, if in fact it heats up. But those scenarios aren’t sure things for either of them right now.

 

Bonafide Contributor — NFL future aside, this group is made of pieces who’d be hard to replace if something happened to them

— Alex January

— Ty’Anthony Smith

January will once again be a key part of a deep, talented interior defensive line rotation that figures to pack more of a punch than the 2025 group if Maraad Watson is healthy and Ian Geffrard allows Muschamp to bounce between playing even and odd fronts.  With Smith, his immediate future will be determined by his ability to keep making splash plays while playing more consistent, down-to-down football in a new scheme.

 

Now or Never — If you haven’t solidified your role yet, it’s time to make your move

— Kobe Black

— Xavier Filsaime

— Jordon Johnson-Rubell

— Wardell Mack

— Zina Umeozulu

This group has a few guys (namely Black, Filsaime and Umeozulu) who could become significant contributors in 2026 and foundational pieces in 2027. Volatility exists, though, meaning they could get passed up by incoming transfers or younger players on the roster if they fail to convince the coaches to give them more snaps.

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[Jeff Howe]

This has been an exercise I've done every spring because it's fun to see the sense of urgency some guys show when they realize their time is getting short (see Ryan Niblett last season). With that said, there aren't that many guys left from the '24 class and the nature of the transfer portal/NIL/revenue sharing means the 2026 season will likely be the last one in a Texas uniform for a lot of guys in this group.

[nicray0920]

I see quite a few 2027 draft prospects on that list - nice job Jeff!

[Jeff Howe]

Of the guys in the "Now of Never" group, who are you banking on to break through and claim a bigger role for themselves?

— Kobe Black

— Xavier Filsaime

— Jordon Johnson-Rubell

— Wardell Mack

— Zina Umeozulu

[Jeff Howe]

Just now, nicray0920 said:

I see quite a few 2027 draft prospects on that list - nice job Jeff!

I want to see as many guys as possible face tough decisions on whether to be a part of next year's draft. That would mean Texas likely put a number on the wall in 2026.

[Joe Zura]

Nice stuff Jeff 🤘

[McCoy2Shipley]

23 minutes ago, Jeff Howe said:

Of the guys in the "Now of Never" group, who are you banking on to break through and claim a bigger role for themselves?

— Kobe Black

— Xavier Filsaime

— Jordon Johnson-Rubell

— Wardell Mack

— Zina Umeozulu

Easy answer to me is Zina imo. It's huge for the depth of the defense we kept him at UT. I'm curious how Filsaime comes along with Gideon back

[CJ Vogel]

Think Zina is going to see the jump we have seen previously with Barryn Sorrell and Ethan Burke in 2026.

[Alex Butler]

51 minutes ago, Jeff Howe said:

Of the guys in the "Now of Never" group, who are you banking on to break through and claim a bigger role for themselves?

— Kobe Black

— Xavier Filsaime

— Jordon Johnson-Rubell

— Wardell Mack

— Zina Umeozulu

Zina and Kobe! I like Xavier Filsaime but man the injuries make it tough to expect too much. 

[Dallas Horns Fan]

Wardell Mack is really productive in very few snaps...he has two interceptions and only 8 career tackles - sounds like a playmaker

 

[Tuco Ramirez]

Zina. There’s a reason the staff stepped in to keep him from transferring. 

[817 Boxing B]

1 hour ago, Jeff Howe said:

Of the guys in the "Now of Never" group, who are you banking on to break through and claim a bigger role for themselves?

— Kobe Black

— Xavier Filsaime

— Jordon Johnson-Rubell

— Wardell Mack

— Zina Umeozulu

Zina. Kobe Black would be next. I feel like Mack and Rubell are leaving in 2027... Filsaime is the only wild card, imo. He could either step up and be a guy... or fold and dip.

[Here for the Wins]

Gotta be Filsaime.

[Hix Green made the Catch]

1 hour ago, Jeff Howe said:

Of the guys in the "Now of Never" group, who are you banking on to break through and claim a bigger role for themselves?

— Kobe Black

— Xavier Filsaime

— Jordon Johnson-Rubell

— Wardell Mack

— Zina Umeozulu

I want every single one to be like Rod Babers, namely, "You young bucks are good, but you aren't taking my job this year!  You ain't jumpin' over me!"

[Rillo HOOK EM]

I think JJR could make a move. He was known as a heady guy coming out of high school with a high football IQ if I remember correctly. If he can find his way onto the field, I could see him making a splash.