OTF Premium Who Has the Edge?: How No. 5 Texas stacks up with Texas State

[Jeff Howe]

It’s time for the 2026 debut of "Who Has the Edge?," an On Texas Football in-season feature that looks at how the Texas Longhorns stack up with their opponent.

This week, it’s Texas State, with the Bobcats making the short drive up Interstate 35 for No. 5 Texas' season opener at Royal-Texas Memorial Stadium on Saturday (2:30 p.m., ESPN).

WHEN TEXAS RUNS THE FOOTBALL

Exiting the game healthy and keeping penalties to a minimum are two significant boxes the Longhorns can check on Saturday. So too is putting a better product on the field when running the football.

Steve Sarkisian overhauled the offensive line and reloaded the running back room after last season’s lackluster ground output. The offseason moves were in response to Texas finishing in the bottom half of the SEC in rushing offense (10th with 4.19 yards per attempt and 11th with 137.77 yards per game), which is why the ground attack won’t get a grace period from the masses.

The Longhorns also need to execute when trying to pound the rock on critical downs; the Bobcats ranked 114th in FBS last season in rushing yards allowed on third down with three or fewer yards to go, allowing 4.73 yards per attempt (tied for 105th in FBS), with 29 of the 37 times Texas State faced such situations resulting in first downs.

EDGE: Texas

WHEN TEXAS STATE RUNS THE FOOTBALL

Even with Brad Jackson and his team-leading 17 rushing touchdowns back behind center, the Bobcats are going through a rebuilding year in the backfield.

Leading rusher Lincoln Pare (1,128 yards, 5.4 yards per attempt and five touchdowns) exhausted his eligibility in 2025. Greg Burrell (671 yards, 6.7 yards per attempt and three rushing touchdowns in 2025) was dismissed from the program in April. Running backs coach and program legend Barrick Nealy stepped down in July to spend more time with his family.

Even with college football’s biggest offensive line paving the way, GJ Kinne and Texas State don't have reliable, proven ball carriers. That's not where the Bobcats want to be against a Texas run defense that was stout in camp and has more than enough mass to match the Bobcats’ offensive trench beef.

EDGE: Texas

WHEN TEXAS THROWS THE FOOTBALL

If Arch Manning is on, this is where the game can get away from the Bobcats.

The offense wasn’t clicking on all cylinders in camp. Still, Sarkisian praised their ability to create explosive plays, which Manning connected on when targeting Cam Coleman and Ryan Wingo down the field.

Whether Trevor Goosby plays or not, the Texas offensive line should be much better in pass protection and give Manning more time to operate than he had last season. Manning was one of the most pressured quarterbacks in the country (pressured on 165 dropbacks, according to Pro Football Focus, which was the sixth-highest total in FBS), which shouldn't be the case in 2026.

DonTerry Russell, Texas State’s top returning pass rusher, is reportedly a game-time decision. Even if Russell plays, the Bobcats will likely have to send multiple defenders at Manning in their quest for negative plays and turnover opportunities.

At best, that’s a roll of the dice. Manning was one of the best quarterbacks in college football last season when opponents blitzed him, completing 57.8 percent of his passes for 1,550 yards and 13 touchdowns, with just two interceptions.

EDGE: Texas

WHEN TEXAS STATE THROWS THE FOOTBALL

Not only do the Longhorns have to deal with Jackson and a pair of 1,000-yard receivers (Beau Sparks had 1,200 yards and 10 touchdowns on 84 catches while Chris Dawn Jr. caught 65 passes for 1,007 yards and four touchdowns), but they’ll be going against an offensive line that was an elite pass-blocking unit in 2025. With 6-foot-7-inch, 327-pound tackle Sully Burns (No. 57 on Bruce Feldman’s Freaks List) back to lead the Bobcats in the trenches, Texas State was tied for No. 16 in FBS in pass-blocking efficiency rating (91.0), according to PFF, allowing only 69 pressures (tied for 20th in FBS) on 448 opportunities.

With that said, we’ve yet to see how Will Muschamp will unleash Colin Simmons and Rasheem Biles, who was one of the nation’s best pass-rushing linebackers last season.

Expect an experienced, explosive Bobcat offense to make plays against Muschamp's defense. For Sarkisian and Muschamp, the Longhorns will hopefully continue the camp trend of the defense making more plays (five interceptions in two scrimmages) than it gives up.

EDGE: Texas

SPECIAL TEAMS

Both teams are breaking in new punters. Hopefully, we see more of Texas State’s Tom Flintoff than Mac Chiumento, who will kick to Sparks (72 yards on 13 returns last season) when he’s called upon.

Something to monitor when the Bobcats punt is whether they gamble and kick to Ryan Niblett. Also, could Jeff Banks shake things up and decide to come after Flintoff, a freshman from Australia, early?

Gianni Spetic is the more experienced transfer kicker in the game. He was solid in the team’s two camp scrimmages. Still, it’ll be good for Spetic to attempt a field goal on Saturday rather than have his first try in a Texas uniform come under the lights against Ohio State.

Dylan Cunanan was 23-for-32 in two seasons at Toledo, including an 8-for-11 mark in 2025 (long of 46 yards). Field goals won’t keep Texas State in the game, but the Bobcats lining up for three will give one of the 11 Longhorns on the field a chance to fill Ethan Burke’s shoes as the team’s next field goal-blocking specialist.

EDGE: Texas

COACHES

Sarkisian is 12-0 at Texas against non-Power Four opponents, winning those games by a combined score of 536-95. The Longhorns haven’t allowed a Group of Six opponent to score more than 10 points since a 41-20 win over UTSA on Sept. 17, 2022 (the week after a last-second 20-19 loss to No. 1 Alabama), a span of eight games.

Whether that streak continues will largely hinge on the matchup between Kinne’s offense and Muschamp’s defense.

Muschamp hasn’t been an in-game defensive play-caller since 2020 (his last season as South Carolina’s head coach). That gives Muschamp, who spent the last five seasons in various roles on Kirby Smart’s Georgia staff, an edge on Kinne, who doesn’t know what to expect on Saturday.

Sarkisian is facing a new defensive coordinator for the second consecutive season opener. Needless to say, Matt Patricia’s Ohio State defense, loaded with future NFL draft picks, was a much tougher challenge than the one Texas will get from Texas State’s defense, led by Will Windham.

Previously the defensive coordinator for Major Applewhite at South Alabama, Windham's approach is the opposite of what Sarkisian wanted when he hired Muschamp. Kinne ditched a high-risk, high-reward style of play in favor of Windham, an experienced play-caller who wants to confuse opponents with active, multiple fronts and simple coverages on the back end (front multiplicity and coverage simplicity are how Windham has described his defensive style). 

Unfortunately for Windham, his debut for the Bobcats is against an offense eying a fast start to a season it enters with national championship aspirations.

EDGE: Texas

SCORE PREDICTION

Texas 41, Texas State 14

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[Jeff Howe]

The score prediction is mine, which will run with the rest of the OTF staff's predictions tomorrow.

[Jeff Howe]

ICYMI, Texas State released its depth chart earlier this evening:

 

[kren]

Jeff’s been absolutely cooking this week🤘

[Jeff Howe]

Just now, kren said:

Jeff’s been absolutely cooking this week🤘

Just doing my part as part of a really good team.

I appreciate the kind words, though.

[Deej]

Love the in depth analysis 🤘🏻