Arch Manning's Development, Layering the football

[diegozanna20]

After the last few weeks there's zero doubts in my mind that we're seeing Arch play his best football and we're seeing him progress more and more every week.
He's tough as nails, he has zero fear of standing in a dirty pocket and taking a hit, he can evade rushers, he can get out of the pocket and he's finally being accurate with the football.
PFF gave him a 82 adjusted completion percentage. He threw the ball more than 40 times. That's elite level of accuracy.
What's even more encouraging is that it seems to me that he's gotten over the mental hurdle of playing in a big setting or being afraid to make mistakes.
He's also processing a lot quicker and you can tell he's a really smart football player. The last 4 games the 2 ints that he threw were one on a bobbled football by Livingstone and the other on a inaccurate ball to Moore (which probably should've been PI), none of these being due to stupid decisions by him.

Having said this the film guy brought up an intersting point about his development: Arch really struggles to layer the football.
He said that he makes about 12 throws every saturday that are just elite NFL throws where he has either a really tight window to throw into, or he's standing in a dirty pocket with pressure in his face, or he's throwing on the run.
But he's errant when throwing to Mosley, for example, running a deep over.
He says that if Arch isn't putting everything he can into the throw he doesn't know where the football is going.
He the concluded that he's still a guy that he would draft to then try to develop that part of his game.

I find myself agreeing with him cause I think that's a big part of the offense that is missing.
We struggle to have explosives because Arch isn't accurate on deep overs or  routes that are "running away from him", where he just has to put a little air under the ball and let receivers create in space.
The only other way we can create explosives in the passing game is with the screen game or deep post routes/lower percentage throws.

What do you guys think about it?
Do you think it can be fixed this offseason?
Do you think it's something that's gonna take longer and is deep rooted into his mechanics?

Edited 5 hours ago by diegozanna20

[Here for the Wins]

About last weekend, and it was similar to Ohio State, there was a feel that the Oline held up better than it did.  I’m sure experience will help the throws you mention.  Consistent time in the pocket should as well.  And we still have too much interior pressure.  Those aren’t throws you rush.  Those 3 things don’t lend themselves to consistency because patience and time is less consistent.  It’s generally easier to let it rip in the face of pressure for many too.  As the comfort level goes up, the consistency should as well.

He was pressured on 41% of throws versus UGa.  The average time to throw on those pressures was sub-3 seconds.

[diegozanna20]

12 minutes ago, Here for the Wins said:

About last weekend, and it was similar to Ohio State, there was a feel that the Oline held up better than it did.  I’m sure experience will help the throws you mention.  Consistent time in the pocket should as well.  And we still have too much interior pressure.  Those aren’t throws you rush.  Those 3 things don’t lend themselves to consistency because patience and time is less consistent.  It’s generally easier to let it rip in the face of pressure for many too.  As the comfort level goes up, the consistency should as well.

He was pressured on 41% of throws versus UGa.  The average time to throw on those pressures was sub-3 seconds.

Really interesting.
I still think it's an area where he's gotta mature mechanically in the off season, but I do think you're right in saying that confidence is a big factor in this.

[jkates]

If you find yourself agreeing with The Film Guy, you need to question your life's choices.

Mostly kidding. But that guy is an amateur posing as a football geek. I wouldn't put much stock into his analysis.

Arch is still developing, to be sure. He misses some throws now and again in a head-scratching fashion. He's also layered a few in there that have been dropped. What is encouraging to me on the Arch front is that he appears to be one of the few guys on offense taking personal accountability for his weaknesses and working to fix them from game to game. 

[Here for the Wins]

His motion is a little awkward which is probably who he is.

I like to be different I suppose.  The mechanics issues are overblown somewhat.  Pressure and experience impact those things.  It’s more a matter of him slowing down and being less rushed.  And that rusher pushing the pocket is very significant.  And guys with his mentality, they make some wow plays, but that’s often because they aren’t following the expected mechanical or expected decision-making.  So you’ll have misfires there too.

[TexasMDcoach]

Arch can make all the throws.  Most of his deep balls are just a tad long and I think when we add a bit more speed to that position his long ball will become the weapon, we all expected. 

[SB21]

Growth as a QB to play at an elite level takes time. Sure there are rare occasions that freshmen and sophomore QBs play really well but for the comp Arch is playing against he is progressing and that’s all that should matter this year. Keep building and growing and let’s see how next year looks compared to this year 

[Michelle Lynn]

I dont disagree with film guy and think this level can for sure be improved. Think of how much progress he has shown just this season with no oline and questionable weapons. Te, wr and rb have all been inconsistent at BEST. 

I think it’s ok to acknowledge that Arch can work on layering throws but also be pumped about his growth. I view it as a positive that he still has areas he can improve and is already playing at a high level. 

[diegozanna20]

22 minutes ago, Michelle Lynn said:

I dont disagree with film guy and think this level can for sure be improved. Think of how much progress he has shown just this season with no oline and questionable weapons. Te, wr and rb have all been inconsistent at BEST. 

I think it’s ok to acknowledge that Arch can work on layering throws but also be pumped about his growth. I view it as a positive that he still has areas he can improve and is already playing at a high level. 

Oh yeah absolutely... I think some people might take what I said or what the film guy said as just writing Arch off or something when that's quite the opposite: Arch is such a smart and talented football player that you can criticise areas in which he needs to improve cause you know he can improve in those areas.
It may be nitpicking but that's kind of what you do when you have a guy that next year could be the number 1 overall pick.
He's huge, he can run, he can scramble and throw on the run, he's very very tough and durable, he's smart, he's got a strong arm while having elite arm talent... It's not a knock on him to say that he could improve in throwing with touch.
Every player has flaws, I think right now that's one of them.
He has all the talent to get better at it.

[diegozanna20]

1 hour ago, TexasMDcoach said:

Arch can make all the throws.  Most of his deep balls are just a tad long and I think when we add a bit more speed to that position his long ball will become the weapon, we all expected. 

Yeah it could be that the misses on deep balls or the ones where he is throwing with touch are due to having to build a strong rapport with some of the receivers.
He's pretty accurate when throwing to DMO or Livingstone no?

[diegozanna20]

1 hour ago, Here for the Wins said:

His motion is a little awkward which is probably who he is.

I like to be different I suppose.  The mechanics issues are overblown somewhat.  Pressure and experience impact those things.  It’s more a matter of him slowing down and being less rushed.  And that rusher pushing the pocket is very significant.  And guys with his mentality, they make some wow plays, but that’s often because they aren’t following the expected mechanical or expected decision-making.  So you’ll have misfires there too.

I don't really agree with the talk about his throwing motion or how that could be a factor in him throwing with touch.
A lot of the times Arch is throwing in a dirty pocket where he feels he needs to change his arm slot a bit.
I think his throwing motion is fine since he can make all the throws and he gets the ball out really quickly.
I'm not an expert so I can't tell you why he does show some more inaccuracy in those type of throws but I don't think it's the throwing motion.

[Here for the Wins]

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2025/passing_advanced.htm

 

I like this as a frame of reference.  It gives an on target% and a bad throw %.  It is NFL, but it’s a reminder that everyone misses some.  There’s likely some surprises for some persons.

[alrightalrightalright]

Arch had a great layered throw to Wingo on 3rd down on our TD drive in the 3rd quarter. A bit high but also in the only spot his receiver could go get it. 

[Michelle Lynn]

1 hour ago, diegozanna20 said:

Oh yeah absolutely... I think some people might take what I said or what the film guy said as just writing Arch off or something when that's quite the opposite: Arch is such a smart and talented football player that you can criticise areas in which he needs to improve cause you know he can improve in those areas.
It may be nitpicking but that's kind of what you do when you have a guy that next year could be the number 1 overall pick.
He's huge, he can run, he can scramble and throw on the run, he's very very tough and durable, he's smart, he's got a strong arm while having elite arm talent... It's not a knock on him to say that he could improve in throwing with touch.
Every player has flaws, I think right now that's one of them.
He has all the talent to get better at it.

Totally agree with everything you said! 🤘