CJ Vogel

If Texas runs for 240, I would put their win probability at 98%. Realistically, a good run goal against this team should be around 175 or so. I don't have CFB numbers, but NFL win % for teams that rush for 200 sits around 60% and jumps to 77% if you rush for 250.

The Black Eyed Peas made a song back when I was about six years old that just kept saying "And Runnin' Runnin', and runnin' runnin'" on and on and on. It was catchy as hell and one of the biggest songs of whatever year it was. Maybe 2004, I couldn't quite tell you off the top of my head. When I look at this Texas-Arizona State matchup, for whatever reason, that song comes to my brain. Because, well, that is exactly what Texas should do against the Sun Devils. It comes together even more full circle when the name of that song above is "Let's Get it Started" and then it all makes sense. Texas has figured out its running game against anyone not named Georgia. The Longhorns have hit the 240-yard rushing mark in three of its last four ballgames and the other included a 7-minute drive with 12 of the 14 plays on the drive being run plays. Even with some nicks and bruises suffered by the #BigHumans in round one of the College Football Playoff, there should not be much dropoff, if any, at all moving forward. I went through the Arizona State Sun Devils depth chart when doing some research for this game. What I found is a defensive line that, though is scrappy, is going to be completely outmanned when facing the Longhorn OL. The five leading snap-getters for the Sun Devil interior defensive line have an average weight of 289 pounds. Zac Swanson 6’4” & 290 CJ Fite 6’1” & 295 Jeff Clark 6’1” & 285 Jacob Kongaika 6’2” & 290 Blazen Lono-Wong 6’4” & 285 For those keeping track at home, Jake Majors weighs 315, Hayden Conner weighs 320 and DJ Campbell is listed at 330. Do the math there and it comes out to a 30-pound average difference in favor of the Longhorn interior. Even when you add in Cole Hutson, that average sits just south of 320-pound average amongst the four. Texas will be able to run the ball all over the Sun Devils in Atlanta on Wednesday. The mass is just too significant to ignore and the momentum this bunch is playing with will carry over as well. To Arizona State's credit, the Sun Devil rushing defense comes in at 23rd in the country, allowing 117.8 yards per game and 33rd in the country at 3.8 yards per attempt. But I reckon they have not played an offensive line with the size of this Texas unit in 2024. With all of the talk about the quarterback being the one who will take Texas to the promised land or begin the winter conditioning sessions early, I think Texas will be just fine with Ewers being a passenger for this round of the playoffs. The magic number over the last month has been 240 rushing yards. It is a lot, I will admit that. However, knowing the success this unit has had recently and the opponent they are set to face in Round 2 of the CFP, I like their chances to hit the mark.

Hazelton was hired by Texas in late July. During fall camp, he was often seen working with the STARs (nickels) on the defensive side of the ball for Texas.

Wake Forest head coach Jake Dickert has nabbed Texas special assistant Scottie Hazelton off of the Texas coaching staff and named him the Demon Deacons new defensive coordinator. The move was rumored last week and made official earlier Friday morning. Hazelton had previously been a defensive coordinator at Kansas State and Michigan State before joining Steve Sarkisian's staff for the 2024 campaign. Best of luck to Coach Hazelton next fall.

Dylan Stewart had 100more snaps than Simmons this year. Simmons still finished with more sacks and 2x the tackles.

More hardware for Texas!

Pretty awesome for Colin Simmons. What an honor and the recent run of past winners has been pretty solid as well.

116 on Tour already? Hard to blame her.

Pretty interesting. Close game expected against either.

I've seen that comparison a lot. Arizona State's leading receiver coming into this game will have 320 yards. Jordyn Tyson is out for the season, he had 1100. And Skattebo has 500 receiving yards as well. I do question their ability to stretch the field vertically as a result. Maybe it will be Troy Omeire who balls out!? (He has 3 receptions for 19 yards)

They would really have to beat themselves, but it certainly is possible. It isn't easy to win the Big 12, Texas knows that first hand.

Man would that be nice. A return, a block, something.

I would bet Clemson beats Arizona State, line would probably be like 3 points or something like that.

You are absolutely right. What a job by the Longhorns to play disciplined football.

I agree, it wasn't terrible in round one, but it still was an issue.

If you are able to stall out Skattebo, Texas will be just fine.

I am sure there are other key moments that I will find in the research leading up to the game, but right now this one stands out to me. Anything y'all can think of that Texas must have success with in order to guarantee a victory?

There is a continued dominance on first down. Having dug through stat after stat since the conclusion of the Clemson game on Saturday, this one remains one of my favorite that I keep returning to. Texas was elite on first downs offensively in round one of the College Football Playoff. It was one of their more complete performances of the year on first downs and it helped sustain drive after drive. Here are the main numbers from Steve Sarkisian's offense on first downs vs. Clemson. 33 first down snaps 253 yards 7.7 yards per first down snap Quinn Ewers was 10-12 passing on first downs for 124 yards or 10.2 yards per attempt, a really solid mark for him. There were two sacks on first down, one of which being Ewers taking a self sack on a busted play where linemen were downfield a throwaway would have resulted in a penalty. In the run game, Texas gained 129 yards on 19 rush attempts. That is a 6.8 average clip. Talk about staying ahead of the chains, that is how you do it. Three first down plays went for touchdowns as well. Rushes of 3, 26 and 38 all found the end zone off of a first down snap. Here is the big one for me. Of the 33 first down snaps, Texas gained two yards or more on 27 of them. There were three incompletions and a rush for loss, then a pass for -6 on the screen where Williams and Wisner were injured and a sack. Other than that, a new first down was gained or Texas was playing ahead of the chains. A really positive mark for the Longhorns who constantly stubbed their toe and played behind the chains against Georgia. *** One other note. Texas had an average distance to gain of 11.6 against Georgia. Against Clemson, that mark was down to 4.6. The run game certainly helped and the Longhorns benefitted greatly. If Texas can duplicate this against Arizona State, I have a hard time seeing them stall many drives on New Year's Day. They will dominate if this first down success makes the trip to Atlanta.

That’s all for today.

Dillingham acknowledged being a 14-point underdog and says “rightfully so” in regards to the Vegas line.

Sark says he believes Arizona State is playing football as well as anyone in the country and remind folks of how difficult it is to win the Big 12 and they did it in year one.

Sark says he thinks it’s very important for his team to take some time to unwind with family for Christmas in the week leading up to ASU. Says he trusts his team to take care of business even if not in the facility. “If I can’t trust them now, when can I trust them?”

Dillingham credits the Texas pass rush for its ability to create turnovers. Says they rush 3, 4, 5 and it’s all effective because of how sticky they are in the back end.