Nicole Auerbach Texas CFP chances

[James Bianchetta]

https://www.nbcsports.com/college-football/news/projecting-the-new-college-football-playoff-rankings-how-close-can-texas-get#
 

interesting read. She claims that she thinks Texas will behind BYU and ahead of Miami at 12. And that Texas should root for some blowouts on championship weekend and there is a plausible path to the playoff in that scenario. 

[FatherofMinky]

Thanks for sharing

[jlcollins519]

Georgia blowing out Bama would help us.   If Bama is blown out by more than 25 points, then they would be at 3 losses and their worst loss would be against FSU, who just lost to Florida, our worst loss.   Tech beating BYU regardless of margin of victory is going to knockout BYU from the discussion as they haven’t played anybody. 

[SB21]

Guess we will see if they take the “conference championship games won’t be used against you route” for real 

[Red Five]

Leaving out the SEC runner-up because they lost in the championship game would be really dumb. 

[Kevin C]

I hope she's right.  The committee should count conf championship game losses with even more weight than a non-conf loss in week 1 imo.  It's a reflection of how the team is playing against top competition at end of season versus week 1.  Also, 2 losses by Miami in October/November to 2 non-ranked opponents should count with much more weight negatively as bad losses than a single loss in early October by Texas to Florida combined with losses to 2 of the top 3 schools in the country.   How many teams in the Top 15 would have beaten either Georgia (1 - Bama) or Ohio State (0)?  

It's interesting when you look at Strength of Schedule on ESPN, no-one in the Top 25 has anywhere near the same difficulty of schedule as UT.  Four of the Top five teams in the AP chose to play all cupcakes for non-conf games.  What exactly is the CFP committee trying to incentivize?  If BYU and Bama both get beaten by 2+ scores, theoretically that should open up a possible path into the playoffs for the Horns.  How can they keep Vanderbilt ahead of Texas after the way we handled them head to head and Vanderbilt played the following non-conf schedule:  Charleston Southern, Virginia Tech, Utah State and Georgia State?    Vanderbilt only played two teams currently in the Top 20 (Alabama and Texas).  Vanderbilt got beat soundly by both.  

Ready to be disappointed but fun to hear the debates for the next week.  I'll never forget how f'ng over the top excited I was 2 years ago with the who debate between Georgia, Bama, Florida State and Texas for the final 2 spots into the playoffs.  It looked like we may be on the outside, looking in until Bama beat Georgia (the same year we beat Bama).  Had Georgia won that game, would the committee have let Florida St (and their perfect record but without starting QB) into the final spot?  We'll never know.  

All that to say that we had some dominoes fall our way 2 years ago on Conf Championship Weekend when UT won our final Big 12 Championship in a blowout game and Bama upset Georgia.  It was a beautiful weekend.  Let's see how next weekend shakes out.  Praying for a lot more dominoes to fall our way again.  

Hook em!!  

 

 

[whereiend]

It's astonishing but that is the first media take I have seen that acknowledges how consequential this is regarding future OOC scheduling. There will not be any more big time OOC games if Texas is punished for losing to OSU on the road in their closest game of the year.

[John F.]

19 minutes ago, Red Five said:

Leaving out the SEC runner-up because they lost in the championship game would be really dumb. 

This is true. Committee has said as much too. But one interesting scenario would be if there’s something to the DeBoer to Penn St rumors. The committee has also said they’d consider availability of players and coaches so if he bolts, especially after losing badly to Georgia in the championship game, who knows

[Realist Horn]

If the CFP a reward for the season or a matchup of the teams playing best at the end of a season? Right they look at win/loss records and not how a team is playing. 

[Kevin C]

27 minutes ago, Red Five said:

Leaving out the SEC runner-up because they lost in the championship game would be really dumb. 

Disagree.  It would diminish their biggest win of the year (against Georgia) if they lose in the SEC championship.  Bama lost to OU, Texas beat OU.  Both would have 3 losses.  Bama played a cupcake non-conf schedule (no opponents in the Top 25).  Texas played #1 team in the country closer than any other opponent all year.  Texas beat 3 teams currently in the Top 15.  Bama beat 2 teams in the Top 15 (Georgia and Vanderbilt).   Committee left out Georgia 2 years ago after they lost to Bama in the Conf Championship and Georgia was undefeated going into the Conf Championship game.  We need to stop pretending you can't drop out of the playoffs due to conf championship loss.  It's already happened multiple times in the past and should happen this year, especially if it's BYU and Bama who are both losing.  

Predicting this second year of the 12 team playoffs with really good teams getting left out is going to lead to Big 10 getting their way with 24 Team Playoff System.  Top 4 teams from each of the Power 4 Conferences getting in automatically then at large for all other spots.  Predicting that would lead to elimination of conf championship games.  Top 2 teams from each conference get in (based on conf record) then team #3 plays #6 and #4 plays #5 to win the final 2 spots in each conf AQ.  Now you've filled 16 spots then it leaves Committee Rankings to select the final 8 spots (get rid of the rule that benefits 5th conf champion, regardless of ranging) to fill out the Top 24.  

In that scenario, Texas likely hosting a home game for round 1.  Top 8 teams all get a bye in round 1.  By the week of Dec 20th, were down to 16 teams playing at the home sites of the Top 8 teams.  That's a model I could get fired up about.  For teams like Texas, who are beginning to peak at end of season, it would give us the chance to prove it on the field in December rather than punishing us for loss against OSU in week 1 (when 4 of the top 5 teams in rankings didn't play a single ranked opponent in non-conf).  

jmho.  Hook em!!

Edited 3 hours ago by Kevin C

[Here for the Wins]

OU being a lock is a joke.

They lost at home.  They lost a neutral site.  Is Tennessee their 2nd best win?  Or Michigan?  

Tennessee got blown out at home by Vandy.  Michigan got handled by OSU at home.

Vandy beat most of OUs contenders for 2nd best win.

The only metric they have us on is losses.  And lost head to head.  By 3 scores.

[SchoolColors]

Dinich is who you need to listen to on CFP. 

[Ace Recruiter]

1 hour ago, Kevin C said:

Disagree.  It would diminish their biggest win of the year (against Georgia) if they lose in the SEC championship.  Bama lost to OU, Texas beat OU.  Both would have 3 losses.  Bama played a cupcake non-conf schedule (no opponents in the Top 25).  Texas played #1 team in the country closer than any other opponent all year.  Texas beat 3 teams currently in the Top 15.  Bama beat 2 teams in the Top 15 (Georgia and Vanderbilt).   Committee left out Georgia 2 years ago after they lost to Bama in the Conf Championship and Georgia was undefeated going into the Conf Championship game.  We need to stop pretending you can't drop out of the playoffs due to conf championship loss.  It's already happened multiple times in the past and should happen this year, especially if it's BYU and Bama who are both losing.  

Predicting this second year of the 12 team playoffs with really good teams getting left out is going to lead to Big 10 getting their way with 24 Team Playoff System.  Top 4 teams from each of the Power 4 Conferences getting in automatically then at large for all other spots.  Predicting that would lead to elimination of conf championship games.  Top 2 teams from each conference get in (based on conf record) then team #3 plays #6 and #4 plays #5 to win the final 2 spots in each conf AQ.  Now you've filled 16 spots then it leaves Committee Rankings to select the final 8 spots (get rid of the rule that benefits 5th conf champion, regardless of ranging) to fill out the Top 24.  

In that scenario, Texas likely hosting a home game for round 1.  Top 8 teams all get a bye in round 1.  By the week of Dec 20th, were down to 16 teams playing at the home sites of the Top 8 teams.  That's a model I could get fired up about.  For teams like Texas, who are beginning to peak at end of season, it would give us the chance to prove it on the field in December rather than punishing us for loss against OSU in week 1 (when 4 of the top 5 teams in rankings didn't play a single ranked opponent in non-conf).  

jmho.  Hook em!!

The committee has already said publicly that a loss in a championship game would not hurt a teams chances to make the CFP

[TexasEx_10]

2 minutes ago, Ace Recruiter said:

The committee has already said publicly that a loss in a championship game would not hurt a teams chances to make the CFP

IF Bama gets blown out, they can absolutely get left out. Bama fans have brought this point up repeatedly on their boards. Many were hoping A&M would beat Texas to avoid this very scenario. 

[whereiend]

7 minutes ago, SchoolColors said:

Dinich is who you need to listen to on CFP. 

If Dinich is accurate on this then the committee has their heads buried deep in their asses. Oklahoma being a lock and is out is an absolute joke.

I'm gonna be extremely pissed if we are left out and a single difficult OOC game remains on our future schedules. If that happens we need drop 100% of them, including the home games. ESPN can deal with the consequences of that.

[Ace Recruiter]

Just now, TexasEx_10 said:

IF Bama gets blown out, they can absolutely get left out. Bama fans have brought this point up repeatedly on their boards. Many were hoping A&M would beat Texas to avoid this very scenario. 

I'll take the committee's word over paranoid rumors

[TexasEx_10]

20 minutes ago, Ace Recruiter said:

I'll take the committee's word over paranoid rumors

Like the committee’s word to value SOS and SOR. 
 

Several national media have already brought this up and list Alabama on the bubble, but ok. 

[CoachBobbyFinstock]

4 hours ago, James Bianchetta said:

https://www.nbcsports.com/college-football/news/projecting-the-new-college-football-playoff-rankings-how-close-can-texas-get#
 

interesting read. She claims that she thinks Texas will behind BYU and ahead of Miami at 12. And that Texas should root for some blowouts on championship weekend and there is a plausible path to the playoff in that scenario. 

Is she plugged in and knows stuff?

[CoachBobbyFinstock]

45 minutes ago, SchoolColors said:

Dinich is who you need to listen to on CFP. 

She said Texas is cooked 

[Ace Recruiter]

20 minutes ago, TexasEx_10 said:

Like the committee’s word to value SOS and SOR. 
 

Several national media have already brought this up and list Alabama on the bubble, but ok. 

Ok, let's see how rumors work out for you

[Coach840]

Don’t think Dinich is a fan of Tx, she definitely has sources in the committee room

[CGG]

The committee needs to have a serious conversation comparing Texas to all of the two loss teams, especially those slated to be in the playoff.  If an objective review was done, I would think OU would be odd man out.  They have a win at Bama, but Bama outplayed them, but lost due to 3-4 turnovers that led to 17 points.  From our head to head with OU, we clearly dominated that game, only allowing 2 FGs.  Bama also gets the nod over OU due to better conference record and advancing to the SEC championship game.  Ridiculous that Bama is the 5th ranked SEC team but they are advancing to the SEC championship over OU, Ole Miss, and A&M.  

[Kevin C]

1 hour ago, Ace Recruiter said:

The committee has already said publicly that a loss in a championship game would not hurt a teams chances to make the CFP

Actions say different.   

[FootLaw]

3 hours ago, Red Five said:

Leaving out the SEC runner-up because they lost in the championship game would be really dumb. 

Bama is not a good team that will have 3 losses if they lose. They lost to a terrible FSU who Florida destroyed. They lost to OU who we blew out. I'd agree if it was Ole Miss v. Georgia but Bama is on thin ice. If Bama and BYU get whooped, watch out.

[Kevin C]

2 minutes ago, FootLaw said:

Bama is not a good team that will have 3 losses if they lose. They lost to a terrible FSU who Florida destroyed. They lost to OU who we blew out. I'd agree if it was Ole Miss v. Georgia but Bama is on thin ice. If Bama and BYU get whooped, watch out.

Yep, agree