What is more likely: 7-5 or CFP?

[HalfmileHorn]

All we can do is deal with the one game in front of us. I think if we go 7-5 or worse that the coaching staff will look a lot different next year.

[mmdaytontexas]

I don't see how we win Saturday if Arch starts. Maybe if Chambliss and Lacey get hurt early or they just has one of those forgettable games where they are turning the ball over and giving Texas easy scores.

I think at least 9-3, but most likely 8-4, 7-5, or 6-6

Losses to Ole Miss (Confidence 90%), LSU (Confidence 90%), Mizzou (Confidence 65%), Aggy (Confidence 50%)

Maybe these thoughts change is KJ comes in and shows Sark's scheme is not as bad as some think it is. Any consistent scoring offense at all we are sitting at 6-0.

[NothinButDaHorns34]

8 hours ago, SB21 said:

Sad this topic is even a conversation right now…

Completely inexcusable and it’s ALL on sark. It’s the beginning of the end for his time here. 

[Cujonation83]

9 hours ago, AustinsTruth said:

Currently sitting at 4-2 with wins over Ohio State and Tennessee, with losses to 3-3 OU and 5-2 Florida. Remaining games: 

vs Ole Miss ---Bad defense, gonna have to score some points most likely

vs Miss. St. ---If Kamario Taylor is out, this game becomes exponentially easier. 

@ Mizzou ---Hard to predict if the team that smoked Florida and A&M shows up or the team that got smoked by Ole Miss/lost to Miss. St. shows up

@ LSU ---Not confident at all

vs Arkansas ---Only 99%+ confidence game

@ A&M ---Like OU, will we be the only game they look competent in?

Generally, feel like we should have a very good chance against Miss. State, especially if Kamario Taylor is out. Arkansas is a win, otherwise there will be no coaches left. Those are the only two remaining games on the schedule that seem like there is a 80%+ of winning. If the team plays well on Saturday, I like their chances of at least 8-4. If they play poorly again on Saturday, we could be staring 7-5 or 6-6 directly in the face. 

Very disappointing 😞 just talking about these scenarios. 

[whereiend]

If we are 7-5 with this roster Sark better be jettisoned to the moon.

[thatdude2]

Even with where the offense is, if it weren’t for turnovers and being aggressive on 4th downs, this current team would be 6 - 0.

[Jordan91]

Well Arch has a chip on his shoulder and is going to let it rip. Four years for him to get there. Few blitzes and he’s back to his usual self. 7-5. 

[Waxahorn]

I'll let you know late Saturday night.

[Alex Butler]

10 hours ago, AustinsTruth said:

Currently sitting at 4-2 with wins over Ohio State and Tennessee, with losses to 3-3 OU and 5-2 Florida. Remaining games: 

vs Ole Miss ---Bad defense, gonna have to score some points most likely

vs Miss. St. ---If Kamario Taylor is out, this game becomes exponentially easier. 

@ Mizzou ---Hard to predict if the team that smoked Florida and A&M shows up or the team that got smoked by Ole Miss/lost to Miss. St. shows up

@ LSU ---Not confident at all

vs Arkansas ---Only 99%+ confidence game

@ A&M ---Like OU, will we be the only game they look competent in?

Generally, feel like we should have a very good chance against Miss. State, especially if Kamario Taylor is out. Arkansas is a win, otherwise there will be no coaches left. Those are the only two remaining games on the schedule that seem like there is a 80%+ of winning. If the team plays well on Saturday, I like their chances of at least 8-4. If they play poorly again on Saturday, we could be staring 7-5 or 6-6 directly in the face. 

Sadly 7-5 is far more likely IMO than playoffs. I’d say 95% better chance of 7-5 with wins against Ark, MSU, and TAMU. 

[smokeymcbevo]

10 hours ago, AustinsTruth said:

With the Big 12 schedule, it seems very unlikely they don't get at least 2 teams in. Same for the Big 10, they will have teams that face 1-2 good teams all year. It is not a good season for a 9-3 team to get in. We would have quite an argument with quality of wins, good news is that losses early in the season mean much less than at the end of the season. 

The narrative at the end of the season is going to be 11-1 big 12 teams vs 9-3 SEC teams which I’m sure will be rational and productive. Regardless we have two terrible losses. We saw last year how the committee feels about “quality wins” vs. bad losses. If a 9-3 team gets in it won’t be us. 

[Traves]

5-7 is more likely than the CFP lol

[GoHorns1]

CFP not happening.

[HornsUpThumbsDown]

8-4, Sark complains that because we are in the SEC we should be allowed in… 

[CoachBobbyFinstock]

7-5 if that’s the two options.

[ArizonaLonghorn]

12 hours ago, jcash02 said:

Even if we won out, we'd still be a fringe CFP team. Having 2 losses to unranked teams is gonna be used against us. 

Don't think so myself ... if we win out we'd have five victories over Top 25 teams (currently), including the biggie over OSU.

Both of the unranked teams we lost to were ranked in the Top 10 earlier in the season.

9-3 and I think we'll be out.

[AusMOJO]

12 hours ago, John F. said:

Going 5-1 would be a feat, and it still may not be enough to get in the playoff, especially with the possibility of 3 big 12 teams getting in. 7-5 would mean losing to Ole Miss, LSU, and Missouri, which is very plausible. I lean 7-5 is more likely. 

3 Big 12 teams getting in is just gross. 

[AusMOJO]

3 hours ago, thatdude2 said:

Even with where the offense is, if it weren’t for turnovers and being aggressive on 4th downs, this current team would be 6 - 0.

You could also apply that the other way around that if Ohio State makes their FG and Tennessee gets that score late, this team is 2-4. Works both ways. 

[AusMOJO]

I don't know where to sit on this. I didn't think last years team would end up 9-3, thought after the Florida game they were done. They went 5-1 to finish the year, very lucky 5-1 with two OT wins, one blowout loss, an Arky game that felt like it was all over the place and an Aggy win where "he has wheels like Grandpa". 

But this year it "feels" different. For whatever that means to you. I'll still choose to be optimistic but I'm struggling to see how team is a CFP team or how Sark keeps a job at 7-5. 

Out of the two options I'd go 7-5. It' just doesn't seem realistic they got 6-0 the rest of the way. 

[thatdude2]

19 minutes ago, AusMOJO said:

You could also apply that the other way around that if Ohio State makes their FG and Tennessee gets that score late, this team is 2-4. Works both ways. 

This is the new age of college football. More games with thinner margins. Well the reality of the SEC.

[AusMOJO]

2 minutes ago, thatdude2 said:

This is the new age of college football. More games with thinner margins. Well the reality of the SEC.

Not really. There's plenty of blowouts every week. Before our game with Florida they got blown out twice and before that blew Ole Miss out. I think it's more of a placebo effect. 

[PaulieD]

21 hours ago, MBHORNSFAN said:

 

Fire everyone 

I've already fired myself, M.

Didn't work, I still have to work around the house, etc.

Dammit.

[PaulieD]

22 hours ago, Joe Z said:

All brakes 26 

🦆

[jcash02]

12 hours ago, ArizonaLonghorn said:

Don't think so myself ... if we win out we'd have five victories over Top 25 teams (currently), including the biggie over OSU.

Both of the unranked teams we lost to were ranked in the Top 10 earlier in the season.

9-3 and I think we'll be out.

Y'all are looking at this from a Longhorns fan perspective (and I agree)

I'm talking about the national media & haters narratives.

OU might go 5-7 this year. 

Florida might not win another game with their schedule.

That's definitely gonna be held against us when people start building narratives. 

Edited 1 hour ago by jcash02

[Chris Evans]

On 10/21/2026 at 8:41 AM, jcash02 said:

Even if we won out, we'd still be a fringe CFP team. Having 2 losses to unranked teams is gonna be used against us. 

wrong, wrong wrong. Wins over OSU, Ole miss, Tennessee, LSU, Mizzou would lock us in,