OTF Premium Why reversing negative play differential is paramount to Texas' success in 2026

[Jeff Howe]

After reading CJ Vogel’s examination of time of possession as a statistic that must change for Texas to reach its ceiling in 2026, my focus shifted to play differential.

It’s not that one statistic is better than the other. I prefer to lean on a team’s play differential (the positive or negative difference between the number of plays a team runs on offense and the number of plays their defense faces) because it’s a more precise measurement of game control.

If an opponent leans on an up-tempo offense and runs a lot of plays with a premium on getting more possessions, or if an opponent wants to take the air out of the football and make the game shorter, play differential can paint a more accurate picture than time of possession. No matter how you slice it, when it comes to what the Longhorns did last season, play differential (like time of possession) must improve to maximize the team’s potential.

Texas finished the 2025 season with a minus-47 overall play differential (minus-3.6 per game), which ranked 15th in the SEC. Against SEC competition, the Longhorns had the worst total play differential (minus-79) in the conference and ranked last in the SEC in per-game play differential (minus-9.9).

In short, Texas’ conference opponents ran roughly 10 more plays per game than the Longhorns. That might not sound like much, but when considering that SEC foes averaged 1.5 scoring drives of 10 or more plays per game against Texas (12 double-digit play scoring drives by SEC opponents in eight conference games), it's a problem that must be fixed.

The highest priority to get the issue resolved is the Longhorns running the football better than they did last season, especially in conference play. Only Alabama’s 89.9 rushing yards per game against SEC opponents kept Texas from being the worst rushing offense in the conference, with an average of 93.1 yards per game on the ground in eight conference games.

Texas also must do a better job of getting off the field on third and fourth down, which includes being a better defense on first and second down.

Pete Kwiatkowski's defense faced an average of 14.7 third downs per game against SEC opponents in 2025, a mark topped only by Oklahoma’s 14.9 for the most in the conference.

Even when the Longhorns got third-down stops (a 39.8-percent conversion rate by SEC opponents ranked 10th in the conference, which was well above the defense’s season average of 33.5 percent), only Ole Miss defended more fourth-down conversion attempts (34 in 15 games) than the 31 times the Texas defense was on the field on fourth down. The Longhorns finished fourth in the conference and tied for 30th nationally in fourth-down defense (45.2-percent conversion rate allowed), but only Alabama and Auburn (15 each) allowed more teams to convert on fourth down than the 14 times it happened to the Longhorns.

Texas allowed opponents to convert eight of the combined 16 fourth-down attempts it faced against SEC opponents.

Without question, coming off a year in which the Longhorns were one of five SEC offenses that failed to run at least 500 plays against conference opponents (499, which tied with Florida for the third fewest in the league), the running game must improve. At the same time, Steve Sarkisian brought Will Muschamp back to the Forty Acres to call the defense so that his aggressive style can create more negative plays to get opponents behind the chains and promote more turnover-forcing opportunities, which must happen for Texas to shrink the wide gap in play differential from last season.

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[Jeff Howe]

Shoutout to @CJ Vogel for his time-of-possession breakdown, which sent me down a rabbit hole examining play differential. In our Longhorn Blitz days with @Rod Babers, Matt Butler and I, Matt is the one who pointed out play differential as something to look to understand TOP better (kinda like looking at touchdown rate in the red zone instead of conversion rate as a whole when determining success or failure).

[Burnt Orange Horn]

Excellently written article, Jeff!

🤘🏻🤘🏼🤘

[Jeff Howe]

2 minutes ago, Burnt Orange Horn said:

Excellently written article, Jeff!

🤘🏻🤘🏼🤘

🤘

[charlie990]

10 minutes ago, Jeff Howe said:

Texas allowed opponents to convert eight of the combined 16 fourth-down attempts it faced against SEC opponents.

How many of these were in the godforsaken Kentucky game

[CJ Vogel]

6 minutes ago, charlie990 said:

How many of these were in the godforsaken Kentucky game

Trying to forget that game ever existed.

[Jeff Howe]

17 minutes ago, charlie990 said:

How many of these were in the godforsaken Kentucky game

Kentucky was actually 1-of-3 on fourth down. Felt a lot worse though.

Vanderbilt was 2-for-2, FWIW.

[Joe Zura]

Great article Jeff 

[Jeff Howe]

15 minutes ago, Joe Zura said:

Great article Jeff 

🤘

[Jeff Howe]

31 minutes ago, CJ Vogel said:

Trying to forget that game ever existed.

Since that's the one game I attended this season, I'll take the blame.

If @Blake Munroe accepts blame for the baseball series loss at Tennessee, I don't mind being on the hook for the forgettable Kentucky performance.

[Dawson Yarbrough]

The amount of 2nd and 13 we had game after game after game was very frustrating. Hopefully we are much more efficient next year on 1st and 2nd down.  

[Sanka Decaf]

Really appreciate this analysis.  As I started reading, the first question that popped into my mind - is it more on the offense (to stay on the field longer) or the defense (to get off the field quicker).  Regardless of what the status show, last year, it felt like our offense went into long stretches of 3 and out in many games.  I'd love to see more opening possession (on offense) sustained drives that result in touchdowns (or at least points).  It may not be statistical, but it seems that psychologically, if you can score on a methodical opening drive, it has a lot more effect that just that seven points.  Thanks for going down this rabbit hole!

[Blue Horn]

43 minutes ago, Jeff Howe said:

Kentucky was actually 1-of-3 on fourth down. Felt a lot worse though.

Vanderbilt was 2-for-2, FWIW.

The only reason Vandy was able to come back was that they refused to call holding penalties when the OTs would tackle Simmons in the second half. I felt like I was watching us play Okie State.

[Sanka Decaf]

15 minutes ago, Blue Horn said:

The only reason Vandy was able to come back was that they refused to call holding penalties when the OTs would tackle Simmons in the second half. I felt like I was watching us play Okie State.

officiating in that vandy game at the end was crazy.  If only I had had a water bottle . . .  just kidding.

[Beldar]

1 hour ago, Jeff Howe said:

Kentucky was actually 1-of-3 on fourth down. Felt a lot worse though.

Vanderbilt was 2-for-2, FWIW.

Remember one Kentucky did not pick up.

 

[Bobby Burton]

Two factors combined to produce this result:

1. Sark searching for chunk plays.

2. PK’s bend but don’t break defensive style.

I think that can lead to non-complimentary football and is part of why Sark made the change he did at DC. 

[Bobby Burton]

31 minutes ago, Beldar said:

Remember one Kentucky did not pick up.

 

In OT!

The Kentucky and Mississippi State games back-to-back on the road showed the Horns, despite being young, had a spine even if they were imperfect.

[Thailand T Sip]

@CJ Vogel@Jeff Howe Really appreciate both write ups. CJ, you gave us the sketch & Jeff, you colored it. I never looked at efficiency like this. It's really a team stat. Really need a strong defense to reduce opponents plays & the offense needs to take advantage of possessions. Earlier there was a discussion about which player benefits the most from Muschamp's arrival. Indirectly, it's going to be Arch & the O by getting more possession opportunities.

[Dawson Yarbrough]

1 hour ago, Blue Horn said:

The only reason Vandy was able to come back was that they refused to call holding penalties when the OTs would tackle Simmons in the second half. I felt like I was watching us play Okie State.

Not even kidding when I say that that was the game that made me realize gambling is affecting officiating. They did everything they could to get Vandy caught up. And what do you know? They covered the spread!