The QB Strategy Next Year and beyond

[westx]

No offense to KJ and Dia, but maybe Texas needs to do what is best for Texas and what other programs (including Texas) have done and go to the portal for next year and beyond.  KJ is still an unknown and we have no idea how he will perform.  Are we going to just hope that the QB that has been in the system for 2 years will be ready and not be the reason a fully built team will not make the CFP?  Now, I don't believe Arch is the reason.  Yes he had some flubups, but several other factors also has caused this team to underperform.  I personally hope Arch comes back, but doubt that will happen.  But, if he does and all the worry that KJ and Dia bolt to another team, so be it.  I guess it would be nice if they stayed, but I wouldn't lose any sleep if they did bolt.  Let another team pay and hope.  Before the NIL era, blowU made a good living with this formula-Gayfield, Murry and Hurts.  After, the NIL era began in the summer of 2021, 2022 would be the 1st real season with the new rules:

2022: Last 4 remaining Teams:  Georgia, TCU, Michigan, OSU:  These teams basically had their regular HS to College QB, No NIL transfers (Bennet wasn't an NIL transfer)

2023: Last 4 remaining teams: Michigan, Washington, Texas, Penn State:  50:50, Washington's Penix and Ewers at Texas were NIL transfers

2024: Last 4 remaining teams:  OSU, Notre Dame, Texas, Penn St: 75% NIL Transfers: OSU/Howard, ND/Leonard, Texas/Ewers

2025: Last 4 remaining teams: Indiana, Miami, Ole Miss, Oregon: 100% NIL Transfers: Indiana/Mendoza, Beck/Miami, OleMiss/Chambliss, Oregon/Moore

These QBs transferred and made a huge impact on their team's success.  None of these teams had so-called sophisticated offenses to my knowledge.

I guess what I am getting at is that there is nothing wrong with bringing a 5*QB through the system, but it gets extremely expensive compared to putting your money on a proven product.  And doing that pretty much increases your odds year after year.

[Califashorn75]

Arch should go pro and take his lumps like all rookie quarterbacks do in the League. 

[Bobby Burton]

It’s a fair question in this day of college football IMO.

Let’s see what the final four looks like this year. 

[AusMOJO]

I think it's a good strategy, as long as you get the right pick. Hoover doesn't seem like such a great pick for Cignetti. Plus I think Sark said he'd much prefer to develop the "premium positions" like LT, Edge, QB, etc. 

We'll see this year. The top teams this year seem to have transfer QB's for the most part. We'll see what that final 4 looks like again. 

[Guts]

I get it, but I would rather have a QB that’s been in the system instead of though the portal. I might be in the minority though. It might be naive, but I’ve always liked having at least a QB that was Texas raised. (I know Quinn was a portal but he was 3 years at Texas)

[Horns05]

Moore was unproven and sat for a year first behind Gabriel. 

Chambliss got an opportunity to start after Simmons got hurt.  

It's not as clean and easy as you make it sound.

[Parker]

9 hours ago, westx said:

No offense to KJ and Dia, but maybe Texas needs to do what is best for Texas and what other programs (including Texas) have done and go to the portal for next year and beyond.  KJ is still an unknown and we have no idea how he will perform.  Are we going to just hope that the QB that has been in the system for 2 years will be ready and not be the reason a fully built team will not make the CFP?  Now, I don't believe Arch is the reason.  Yes he had some flubups, but several other factors also has caused this team to underperform.  I personally hope Arch comes back, but doubt that will happen.  But, if he does and all the worry that KJ and Dia bolt to another team, so be it.  I guess it would be nice if they stayed, but I wouldn't lose any sleep if they did bolt.  Let another team pay and hope.  Before the NIL era, blowU made a good living with this formula-Gayfield, Murry and Hurts.  After, the NIL era began in the summer of 2021, 2022 would be the 1st real season with the new rules:

2022: Last 4 remaining Teams:  Georgia, TCU, Michigan, OSU:  These teams basically had their regular HS to College QB, No NIL transfers (Bennet wasn't an NIL transfer)

2023: Last 4 remaining teams: Michigan, Washington, Texas, Penn State:  50:50, Washington's Penix and Ewers at Texas were NIL transfers

2024: Last 4 remaining teams:  OSU, Notre Dame, Texas, Penn St: 75% NIL Transfers: OSU/Howard, ND/Leonard, Texas/Ewers

2025: Last 4 remaining teams: Indiana, Miami, Ole Miss, Oregon: 100% NIL Transfers: Indiana/Mendoza, Beck/Miami, OleMiss/Chambliss, Oregon/Moore

These QBs transferred and made a huge impact on their team's success.  None of these teams had so-called sophisticated offenses to my knowledge.

I guess what I am getting at is that there is nothing wrong with bringing a 5*QB through the system, but it gets extremely expensive compared to putting your money on a proven product.  And doing that pretty much increases your odds year after year. https://vivatbet.ie/en/line/american-football/68315-usa-nfl

If you bring in 5-star talents like KJ Lacey and Dia Bell only to recruit over them with a one-year portal rental the second a spot opens up, elite high school quarterbacks will simply stop considering Texas. The portal is meant to patch unforeseen roster holes, not replace your entire development pipeline. You recruited KJ for a reason - let the kid compete and play.

[Rockin TL]

6 hours ago, Bobby Burton said:

It’s a fair question in this day of college football IMO.

Let’s see what the final four looks like this year. 

It seems to have worked for Miami 3 years in a row. It could also alleviate the being in Sark's system too long and regressing issue we've seen.

Edited 2 hours ago by Rockin TL

[4thandFive]

The problem with Sark and a transfer QB is the system he operates. Sark’s offense is self-admittedly complex and difficult to operate. If you bring in a star QB there’s no guarantee they will be able to operate efficiently enough to be proficient, much less light it up. 

[Sundancekid]

I’m sure Sark is taking notes here…

[Roy Hinojosa]

If Arch wants to come back, does Sark say no?

[Texas fan in Georgia]

It’s already a complicated scheme for guys that have been in the program for years to fully grasp, i wouldn’t have much confidence in a transfer coming in and not having as much time to grasp the playbook

[Rockin TL]

National Championship Game QBs in the last 3 years:

2025: Miami (Carson Beck, transfer) - Indiana (Fernando Mendoza, transfer)
2024: Ohio St (Will Howard, transfer) - Notre Dame (Riley Leonard, transfer)
2023 - Washington (Michael Penix Jr, transfer) - Michigan (JJ McCarthy)

[hookem1014]

23 minutes ago, Roy Hinojosa said:

If Arch wants to come back, does Sark say no?

Depending on how the rest of the season goes, it may not be Sark’s decision 

[Rockin TL]

26 minutes ago, Roy Hinojosa said:

If Arch wants to come back, does Sark say no?

 

2 minutes ago, hookem1014 said:

Depending on how the rest of the season goes, it may not be Sark’s decision 

I think Sark does whatever it takes to keep Arch at Texas if he doesn't go pro. The optics would be really, really bad for Sark if Arch transfers and does extremely well while looking like a complete different QB.

[hookem1014]

1 minute ago, Rockin TL said:

 

I think Sark does whatever it takes to keep Arch at Texas if he doesn't go pro. The optics would be really, really bad for Sark if Arch transfers and does extremely well while looking like a complete different QB.

I was more alluding to if Sark is still at Texas. If this team goes 8-4 with this years roster, that would put his job at risk. 

As far as Arch's future, I feel like he would either go pro or come back to Texas. With how the Manning's operate I just don't see him transferring to another program. 

Anyways, apologies for the pessimistic outlook lol. Hopefully the team builds on the Ole Miss win and we don't have to worry about any QB drama down the road.

[whereiend]

Plan next year is probably Arch...

I'm with you on the transfer portal obviously being the smarter play than Lacey/Bell though. It takes playing in real games to develop as a QB. Why waste a season developing our QB when we can just buy one like Miami?

[GoHorns1]

57 minutes ago, Roy Hinojosa said:

If Arch wants to come back, does Sark say no?

No

[Thorn007]

but if you bring in a proven QB from another school then sark wouldnt get credit for the development, right. 

[westx]

4 hours ago, Horns05 said:

Moore was unproven and sat for a year first behind Gabriel. 

Chambliss got an opportunity to start after Simmons got hurt.  

It's not as clean and easy as you make it sound.

I see how it came across that way, but I did not mean to imply that it is a clean and easy process.  More of like a risk reduction or better yet, playing the odds of a proven QB on the field.

Edited 1 minute ago by westx