OTF Premium Going to call a spade a spade

[mmdaytontexas]

10 hours ago, Jim Douglas said:

We need an adult in the room. Sark doesn’t hold his coaches accountable which bleeds into the players not being held accountable. He’s to stubborn/ scared to let arch run and refuses to adapt his offense to his players strengths, seems he rather lose his way than win trying something else🤷🏽‍♂️

I agree. This is the problem.

Sark needs to fire himself as OC, his QB coach, his OL coach, and his TE/OT. Clean house.

Be the HC. Hire a top-5 OC and QB whisperer and let him help you pick your OL coach and TE coach. You have a really good RB and WR coach, so keep them, but clean house everywhere else on the offensive staff. They ain't getting it done.

Don't be Fred Akers or Mack Brown and get yourself fired because you wait too long to make a changes.

[mmdaytontexas]

10 hours ago, Oldest Horn said:

For now, yes. People get far too emotional after big wins and losses. I’ll leave it to the the the the the CDC the to figure out. 

Sark is not going anywhere because he has the potential to be a great HC. He just has to become the CEO and hire a competent staff. He still has the same OL, TE, and QB coach he started with, and their production has been mediocre at best. It's up to CDC to convince him that he needs to make changes before he is run off in a few years.

[Robbin Antono]

[AusMOJO]

Well said Gerry. Arch and Sark need to figure it out, because they've struggled all year. I don't care about the almost 400 yards when you had 9 possessions go for 3 & out or turnovers. 13 3 & outs in two games is inexcusable. 

No one expects the O to score every drive but playing complimentary football means giving your D a rest. I'm not really sure why Sark is so stubborn to keep running his "NFL scheme". This isn't the NFL and your scheme didn't work in the NFL either, it's why you got fired from the Falcons. 

You don't need to over complicate it in the college game. Take what is there, use your better players to your advantage. Get your QB in rhythm. We all love the deep ball and no one said you can't take your shots but look what happens when you simplify it and let Arch play his game. He moved the ball down field with ease and scored. 

Also Cooper is the best RB on the team. Him and Smothers need to get the majority of the carries. Brown is just not it and should be used sparingly. Bishop needs to be out there more, in place of Mosley most likely or if not put more 10 personnel out there. Use your athletes to spread out defenses and cause them nightmares.

[Bunk Moreland]

If he’s going to hold PK accountable after PK put good to very good (and even borderline elite) defenses on the field year after year, then he’d damn well better hold himself and his offensive staff accountable. Because I don’t remember seeing him ever have a great or elite offense at Texas.

[akhookem]

6 hours ago, Gerry Hamilton said:

50-50 

Considering it’s year 6, plus the transfer portal that 50% on the players should be reduced to about 20% at the most. Sark and his staff have picked each of these players, none were inherited. Sark has run out of leash for excuses. Created the roster himself, changed his DC, Jeff banks is the only slight leash he has left of changing, and a new special teams coach isn’t usually a job saving hire. Sark better have his offense “adapt” before his job “dies”

[akhookem]

3 minutes ago, Bunk Moreland said:

If he’s going to hold PK accountable after PK put good to very good (and even borderline elite) defenses on the field year after year, then he’d damn well better hold himself and his offensive staff accountable. Because I don’t remember seeing him ever have a great or elite offense at Texas.

Casey Thompson somehow was the best our offense has been under Sark (for the first 3-4 games). Not sure how Sark upgrades the roster drastically and can’t even reach that level of consistent explosiveness throughout an entire game

[Roy Hinojosa]

Guys, I got the answer. I think the answer has been staring us in the face the whole time. Listen up....we give as much money as we possibly can to get Kirby Smart.

Muschamp is already here, so that can sweeten the pot. Sure, he can solidify his legacy at Georgia, but he could be the next Saban at Texas.

[csaldana]

Thank you Gerry! Thank you for saying it now. Thank you for not continuing to defend the brand but coming back in two years and saying “yeah arch had problems” but would not acknowledge or address in realtime.

Edited 10 hours ago by csaldana

[ChanmanV]

12 hours ago, Gerry Hamilton said:

Going to call a spade a spade 

This is a post I didn't want to have to make. I'm a big fan of Arch Manning. Have been since seeing him for the first time in high school. He's a very hard worker. He carries himself the correct way. He cares. He's a very "good guy," just like he says he wants to be. That's what has been drilled into him by his family, and the family is great. I love his sense of humor, and he carries himself really well in a true fishbowl of life he will forever live in. I'm happy he's a Texas Longhorn. His commitment to Texas was and remains massive for the University of Texas. I've said before many times on the YouTube channel he's the first high school athlete that I've seen built up and broken down, as that is normally saved for pro athletes and a select few in college. Being Arch Manning comes with a lot of good to great, and some the exact opposite. He's certainly not going to be treated by the media in a click bait world like the normal athlete. It is what it is, and it's not easy for an 18-22-year-old figuring out life just wanting to be a college "kid" while developing his craft. It was going to be that way for Arch at any blue blood he signed with.

With that said, I feel strongly that 20 starts and five games into the season with the fourth quarter vs. Oklahoma less than 24 hours removed is the time to address what has to happen moving forward for Manning. 

I thought back during the fourth quarter and after the game to the season opener vs. Texas State with 16 seconds remaining in the first half with Texas up 28-7. Texas was coming out of a timeout with the ball on the Texas State 10-yard line. I remember thinking (maybe saying on the Watch With Us) do not force a throw here. Even though the game wasn't in doubt, make the smart or correct quarterback play to end the half. Value points, value momentum, value the football. It all matters later in a season when games are on the line. Every play when a decision has to be made at the QB position is key part of development. Every single one. After an incompletion, Arch forced a throw over the middle into triple coverage that ended in a really bad interception. Did it hurt Texas in terms of winning or losing the game vs an inferior opponent? Of course not. Was it a really bad QB decision? Absolutely. Arch said it after the game and on Monday. I remember saying on the Watch With Us that needs to be the worst pass/decision Arch makes all season. Because anything close to that recurring would likely be a lot more meaningful in SEC play. 

Arch had some bad QB luck vs. Ohio State in the first half. He made two tremendous throws that were dropped - Cam Coleman and Ryan Wingo. Two should have been TDs (or eventual TD with Coleman). He had a wonderful QB moment in the fourth quarter rally and victory over a very good Ohio State team. In order to be real, it's also very important to be fair. 

The first drive vs UTSA was solid. He got off to a quality start. There was seemingly progression in decision making vs Ohio State and UTSA. After taking the self inflicted big hit, that game changed. Around a number of errant throws in that game (and before the hit) was the illegal forward pass with 13:56 remaining in the third quarter. It happens for all quarterbacks, and has throughout the history of the game. 

Fast forward to the Tennessee game. I've never seen two illegal forward passes by the same quarterback in a game. Never. I'm sure it has happened, but my eyes weren't on the TV or in person for a game in history it happened. And I've certainly never seen three in two games, or an illegal forward pass by the same QB in back-to-back games. Again, it's probably happened somewhere in the history of the game, but my 51-year-old eyes have never seen it. 

To do that three times in two games, and back-to-back games, is truly head scratching plays at the QB position. 

Around all that there were plays in each game where Arch was outside the tackle box and ate the ball taking an unneeded sack vs throwing the ball away. Similar to the end of the half vs. Texas State, those decisions don't hurt a team when you are winning, but one should clearly put those away in the memory bank if the decision-making returns in game deciding situations or games. 

Well, the fourth quarter of the Oklahoma game happened less than 24 hours ago. The pick-six pass can't be made, period. Under duress, Arch did a good job keeping the play alive, but what happened next just can't happen at the QB position. At some point in a quarterback's development, one has to register in the moment when the play calls for innate feel, instincts or extremely quick processing to throw the damn ball away. Not taking a sack in a meaningless game and throwing the ball away reps mattered earlier in the season. Sadly, the INT into triple coverage to the end the half vs. Texas State did not remain the worst pass thrown all season. I'm not going to break down the entire why the decision/throw was horrible, because it doesn't even need to be broken down. The ball wasn't valued. The moment wasn't valued. The situation wasn't valued. It wasn't processed in real time by a QB. 

Then there was the second INT. The reaction to the blitz was a forced throw again. It was a tough spot, but Manning had time to throw an uncatchable ball to the Texas coaches standing along the sideline. And this isn't a nitpick, as one can look at many scenarios in which a QB makes the correct throw away under duress with the game on the line. 

So where is Arch Manning at through five games this season, and 20 starts into his college career? In my opinion, he's now at the most important part of his career and development to date. Some really bad quarterback decisions in meaningless games early in the season became major in a rivalry game against a struggling team. A game that was given away by the Texas special teams, offense and quarterback. 

The head scratcher plays have to begin to cease. If we are still talking about them continuing to happen in November, there is a bigger problem that will have to be addressed. The plays in which one is forced to question innate feel and instincts for the position need to be in the rearview mirror, starting Saturday vs. Florida. The growth in game in split second decision making has to happen October 17. Period. 

The reality is Texas is going to score more points, make more explosive plays in the passing game and "look" better on offense the next three games in October. Texas isn't facing Matt Patricia, Jim Knowles and Brent Venables defenses and overall personnel level the next three games. But that doesn't mean Texas has suddenly improved or "found it" offensively. That doesn't mean Arch Manning has figured it out. This isn't about stats. This is about in-game decision making, and seeing the correct growth. 

Time is no longer on Arch Manning's side, and on Texas' side. Growth has to be easily seen. The time is now. I'm rooting for Arch, as I always have been. The fishbowl and pressure of being a Manning following in massive footsteps is real. That will always be acknowledged when I speak about Arch. At the same time, he's in a position in which major and career arc changing growth at the position has to begin today. There is no other option after five games this season. I'm not expecting perfection, as that is not the real world. I am expecting key growth to begin now. It simply has to for Arch, and the Texas Longhorns 2026 season. 

 

I'm glad you and CJ are speaking the harsh truth. He has most of the attributes you want in a good QB but right now he lacks the most important one which is the one between the ears. His decision making is at freshman level in many ways right now. I don't know if it's the fault of his coaches (Texas and private) and their teaching styles (Quinn struggled too) or if it's just Arch not having the ability to process and pick up new things fast. He's been in Sark's system 3+ years and studied film (being a film junky) and the playbook but what he shows on the field really make him look like he doesn't have enough competency in the plays and system. His reads are slow and doesn't seem to have a high understanding of how certain plays fit with certain defenses. You can tell by where his eyes start and where they go in the first 2-3 secs of a snap. 

The reality is he is behind as a 4th year player and his window is closing fast. Sark can't waste the rest of the team waiting on something that may never happen. Sark hasn't done him any favors like he didn't set Quinn up well early on either. He struggles with rhythm and progressions at this level. I can't even imagine how much he'd struggle in the NFL . 

Unfortunately, I don't think Sark will even pull the plug on Manning even if it's necessary because he's too all in with the Manning family. Arch is likely to want to come back next season and create a scenario Sark avoided last year since Quinn opted to leave. Unfortunately the casualty in all of this maybe KJ Lacey. 

We'll all keep hoping some miraculous A'ha moment happens for him but at this point, it's fair to wonder if it will ever happen. 

[Neil Leininger]

Sarkisian's success with Flood at Alabama had little to do with them, and more to do with the talent that Saban had acquired. You aren't ever going to duplicate that talent level again in the portal and NIL era. This is the lesson Sarkisian seems incapable of learning. His arrogance thinks it was his scheme, when it was obviously the once in a lifetime talent he had to run it.

Frankly, this is where you need Del Conte to put on his big boy pants, or if not him, because Sarkisian is likely on the same level as Del Conte in the Texas AD, then you need Eltife involved, if not him then the next head of the BOR that gets installed after Eltife's term is up in February. 10 wins is not what the stated goal inside the AD, it's competing for championships. You can't do that with a scheme that the college game has left behind, with an OL coach that can't probably pick the G-C-G, a STs team coach that has serious off the field problems and coaches historically bad STs play, a LB coach that gets a DUI during a game week, or a QB coach that has taken two 5-stars near perfect recruits and turned both of them into JAGs that have bad football IQ, fundamentals, and inability to process defenses at an elite level. Throwing the football was never a problem for either, but consistent ball placement 1000% is a problem.

[CoachBobbyFinstock]

48 minutes ago, Bunk Moreland said:

If he’s going to hold PK accountable after PK put good to very good (and even borderline elite) defenses on the field year after year, then he’d damn well better hold himself and his offensive staff accountable. Because I don’t remember seeing him ever have a great or elite offense at Texas.

If we’re being real and if Sarkisian is with himself, he would be fired as OC. 

[Charlie Wilson]

Gerry, 

As others have pointed out already, your analysis is spot on. I have an additional thought for you to consider. I think Sark has done a very poor job helping Arch in 2 facets.

First it seems clear to me Arch is being told to refrain from running if at all possible. When left to his own instincts Arch killed Michigan in our bowl game - when things broke down he ran without hesitation.

Second, Sark is a big advocate of a sophisticated passing tree, which requires a lot of quick reads and decisions by the QB. Arch is not making many easy quick throws, he’s over thinking every play. I don’t believe you can play at an entirely conscious thought process - the games is too fast.

Anyway, I appreciate. Your honestly, and I too am hoping and praying for Arch - he’s a great person.

 

[Bunk Moreland]

@Gerry Hamilton my biggest question is how Arch could have regressed so significantly from the second half of last year. The one thing he did NOT do was turn the ball over. Even at his best he was never a particularly accurate passer, so his inefficiency this year is not surprising aside from the fact that he has not seemed to improve his accuracy as a passer since he’s been at Texas. But what is surprising is how much worse his decision making has been this year compared to the second half of last year. How has he regressed so badly in that regard? And how is he so bad at seeing the field as a fourth year player?

[HonkEm]

18 minutes ago, Bunk Moreland said:

@Gerry Hamilton my biggest question is how Arch could have regressed so significantly from the second half of last year. The one thing he did NOT do was turn the ball over. Even at his best he was never a particularly accurate passer, so his inefficiency this year is not surprising aside from the fact that he has not seemed to improve his accuracy as a passer since he’s been at Texas. But what is surprising is how much worse his decision making has been this year compared to the second half of last year. How has he regressed so badly in that regard? And how is he so bad at seeing the field as a fourth year player?

Those are Excellent questions. I'm not Gerry, but I think a lot of people are assuming we're looking at regression when we might actually be seeing exposure.

Last year Arch played enough to flash talent, but not enough for defenses to spend months studying his tendencies or for him to carry the offense every week. The biggest positive was that he protected the football.

This year he's been asked to be the centerpiece of the offense, and that's when some weaknesses have shown up. The interceptions don't bother me nearly as much as why they're happening. Too often it looks like he's locking onto a receiver, missing underneath defenders, or recognizing coverage rotations a beat too late. That's a processing issue more than an arm-talent issue.

As for being a fourth-year player, experience doesn't automatically equal development. We've all seen guys make huge jumps after sitting, and we've seen others who never become elite field readers no matter how long they're in the system.

The uncomfortable possibility is that Arch hasn't actually regressed. It may be that the second half of last year gave us an incomplete picture, and now that he's playing every meaningful snap, we're finally getting a clearer view of both the strengths and the limitations. To me, that's a more concerning explanation than simple regression because regression can be fixed. A quarterback struggling to consistently see the field is a much harder problem to solve.

 

[HonkEm]

49 minutes ago, Charlie Wilson said:

Gerry, 

As others have pointed out already, your analysis is spot on. I have an additional thought for you to consider. I think Sark has done a very poor job helping Arch in 2 facets.

First it seems clear to me Arch is being told to refrain from running if at all possible. When left to his own instincts Arch killed Michigan in our bowl game - when things broke down he ran without hesitation.

Second, Sark is a big advocate of a sophisticated passing tree, which requires a lot of quick reads and decisions by the QB. Arch is not making many easy quick throws, he’s over thinking every play. I don’t believe you can play at an entirely conscious thought process - the games is too fast.

Anyway, I appreciate. Your honestly, and I too am hoping and praying for Arch - he’s a great person.

 

I think there's probably some truth to both points, especially the running aspect. The Arch we saw against Michigan looked far more decisive because if his first read wasn't there, he'd tuck it and go. This year he seems determined to stay in the pocket and prove he's a passer, and I do wonder if that's making him play slower.

Where I'd push back a little is that plenty of college offenses ask QBs to process complex passing concepts. At some point the quarterback has to be able to see the field and make the right decision. If a fourth-year player is still overwhelmed by the mental side of the position, that's not entirely on the play caller.

To me, Sark deserves criticism if he's not tailoring the offense to what Arch does best. But Arch also deserves criticism if he's repeatedly missing defenders, forcing throws, or processing too slowly. The blame doesn't have to be exclusive to one side.

The biggest mystery is that the decision-making looks worse, not better. That's the part I still can't reconcile. You can live with an occasional inaccurate throw. What's harder to explain is why a quarterback who protected the football so well a year ago is making so many costly mental mistakes now. That's what worries me the most.

 

[FatherofMinky]

The real question here is… IF he wants to come back in 2027, does Texas take him back? Does the Manning family want him back at Texas as well? He’s clearly not going in the 1st round of next years draft.

[HonkEm]

7 minutes ago, FatherofMinky said:

The real question here is… IF he wants to come back in 2027, does Texas take him back? Does the Manning family want him back at Texas as well? He’s clearly not going in the 1st round of next years draft.

Texas would take him back in about two seconds if he's still the best QB on the roster. The real question isn't whether Texas wants Arch. It's whether Arch plays well enough in 2026 that coming back even makes sense. If he's good, he's probably gone. If he's not good, then we're having a very different conversation about whether he should still be the starter.

Honestly, I'd prefer he leaves after 2026. Not because I want him gone, but because that's probably the healthiest outcome for the program. If Arch comes back for 2027, you're asking the next QB in line to wait another year, and in today's portal era that's a real risk. I'd rather have Arch play well enough to be a high draft pick and keep the succession plan moving than lose a talented backup who gets tired of waiting

[thatdude2]

5 hours ago, Gerry Hamilton said:

Ball should never have been thrown. A QB is never taught to throw the ball going right off balance under duress and late down the field from the hash marks to middle of the field. NEVER. Nothing else matters. It's situational awareness, innate feel for the position.

The problem with Arch is he's not progressing. His eyes aren't progressing as a QB right now. 

For his future, they have to start progressing. Then it comes down to pure feel and instincts for the QB position. That will have to be proven out. 

“Going off balance”….it’s the same thing I was saying about his body being fundamentally sound and him making a compact throw instead of flailing. Gerry, neither of us are QB gurus  or have coached of QBs. I got this from Matt Sims who broke down the good throws by Arch and the 2 interceptions.

[Longhorn]

15 hours ago, RN_surgery said:

Everything falls at the feet of Sark for me. He can’t make things easy for Arch. 
 

I hope we lose out and move on from Sark. 
 

 

I hope we win out…and move on from Sark

[Gerry Hamilton]

6 hours ago, thatdude2 said:

“Going off balance”….it’s the same thing I was saying about his body being fundamentally sound and him making a compact throw instead of flailing. Gerry, neither of us are QB gurus  or have coached of QBs. I got this from Matt Sims who broke down the good throws by Arch and the 2 interceptions.

You don't have to be a QB instructor for a person to know what they are talking about. 

Ball should never have been thrown. It's not processing in real time fastest enough for Arch at this point. That is reality. And the other reality is he may just end up lacking innate feel and athletic instincts at the highest level of some others that shows up in situational awareness and under duress in key moments. 

The plays were made early in the season to let anyone with working eyes that has been around the game their whole life. Read what I wrote, and go back and watch the games again. It's all right there. 

[jon44]

Great article Gerry. Time will tell how it plays out.