OTF Premium Has Steve Sarkisian found a formula for success with Arch Manning?

[mmdaytontexas]

I don't think it's a scheme change or a formula is going to fix Arch. This kid could be a superstar if he ever starts anticipating open receivers. He did it better for most of the night against Miss State and had his most efficient game of the year, however, he did go through a few series where he jumped back into the old habit of not throwing to

55 minutes ago, BurntOrangeHorn said:

I think Arch has been a little hard headed accepting coaching.  No one is telling him to hold the ball 3 seconds not to to throw deep into double coverage.

The short game with quick right now throws is something Arch needs to execute.  He watched Quinn for 3 years.  Hopefully something stuck, like checking blocking assignments before the snap.

At least Arch has seemingly learned short passes with correct location and touch are better then 100 mph missiles.

🤘🏻🤘🏼🤘🤘🏽🤘🏾🤘🏿

OL is a problem, but I think you are right about Arch. The hesitancy, missing wide open receivers, and then throwing late into coverage is on him. Why that hasn't been coached out of him by now, no one knows, but when he doesn't pull the trigger early, he tends to miss wide open receivers, then gets sacked or has to scramble. Running early seems to help him some with that, but as we saw Saturday night, it still doesn't cure him 100%.

[syracusehorn]

We are all so desperate to believe that there is a plan or a path towards some intelligible solution. 

[HonkEm]

Thanks for you and Rod putting this together Jeff

Funny how the "formula" basically boils down to: stop asking the offensive line to hold up forever and stop asking Arch to play hero ball every snap. Amazing what happens when the quarterback takes the layups and the offense stays on schedule. 🤘

I agree with the posters saying we don't "fix" the OL this season, we adapt to it. The article reads less like a quarterback breakthrough and more like Sark accepting reality. Quick game, screens, QB runs, and selective deep shots. Win with the team you have, not the team you wish you had.

[kren]

Crazy how similar offensively this year is to last. The offense has become a "we can't run the ball and our OL sucks, Arch hopefully can carry us" again. @CJ Vogel said it best even before the season started - doesn't matter how good your skill position players are if your offensive line is subpar.

[Texas fan in Georgia]

Quinn was hell on wheels with the short and intermediate passing game. 

[Beard N Balls Bundle]

How does an offensive guru not figure out that the juice isn’t worth the squeeze until week 7? 

[Jeff Howe]

6 minutes ago, Beard N Balls Bundle said:

How does an offensive guru not figure out that the juice isn’t worth the squeeze until week 7? 

Believing in your scheme and/or players to a fault. It happens.

[Grant Ward]

Hitting intermediate passes turn into chunk plays.  10% of intermediates may turn into long gains...  Bombs convert at 5%, maybe. Sark lives in a statistical world that does not flow with the game unless he has elite talent above and beyond other teams.  That doesn't exist anymore.

[Grant Ward]

1 hour ago, kren said:

Crazy how similar offensively this year is to last. The offense has become a "we can't run the ball and our OL sucks, Arch hopefully can carry us" again. @CJ Vogel said it best even before the season started - doesn't matter how good your skill position players are if your offensive line is subpar.

The line is giving Arch 3 seconds to throw.  That is plenty of time unless we are trying to throw bombs every other play.  Winning football is 4-6 yard gains every other play.  Sark is the gambler at the roulette table, thinking he knows which single number is coming up next.  

 

Mannings' legs are fine, but he is going to get ding donged.  It's a matter of time.  He doesn't play RB very well.  KJ better be ready.

Edited 14 hours ago by Grant Ward

[GoHorns1]

Until I see the offense is more consistent, very little confidence in the joke offense. 

[tsip92]

So here’s a contrarian theory…. Might the Texas offense be more effective without Coleman and Wingo because of the temptation they pose re the long ball?  Without them Arch “almost” has to focus on Bishop, Mosley, RBs, and TEs which should generally be quicker throws.  

[ChanmanV]

7 hours ago, Jeff Howe said:

AUSTIN, Texas — More than two weeks ago, after a forgettable offensive showing in a 27-24 loss to Florida, Steve Sarkisian sat down with Arch Manning to discuss whether Texas would turn to KJ Lacey if QB1 couldn’t right the ship.

On Monday, two days after Manning's three touchdown passes highlighted a 16-for-20, 220-yard performance in a 31-3 rout of Mississippi State, Sarkisian gave Manning a ringing endorsement.

While answering a question about the offensive line during his weekly news conference, Sarkisian expressed the utmost confidence in Manning ahead of the 10th-ranked Longhorns’ trip to No. 19 Missouri on Saturday (11 a.m., ABC).

“Honestly, I've never felt better about Arch Manning than I do this week,” Sarkisian said. “This guy is ready. He's a warrior. He's tough. His competitive spirit is extremely high. I thought he willed us to play football on the offensive side last week. That's what a quarterback does.

“What a difference a few weeks make.”

Whether Manning’s arrow is pointing upward after Texas (6-2, 3-2 SEC) faces a Tiger defense that ranks 16th nationally against the run (98.3 yards per game and 2.94 yards per carry allowed), 23rd in scoring defense (18.4 points per game allowed) and 37th in total defense (325.1 yards per game and 4.82 yards per play allowed) remains to be seen. Nevertheless, along with Missouri (6-2, 3-2) entering the game with a pass defense that’s tied for 92nd in FBS (226.9 yards per game allowed), the chances are favorable for Manning to build two winning performances because Sarkisian’s confidence could be rooted in the fact that he’s found a formula for success behind center that the Longhorns can replicate.

The formula involves three things:

— Making the quick game and screens the focal point of the passing attack

After the win over the Bulldogs, 35 of Manning’s 48 pass attempts in his last two games were behind the line of scrimmage or short (0-9 yards downfield) based on Pro Football Focus’ four charted passing depths. Manning completed 28 attempts (72.9 percent of his charted-depth attempts) from those depths for 257 yards, one touchdown and one interception.

Manning is 13-for-13 for 66 yards during the two-game winning streak. Short throws are more than just screens; hitches, slants, stop routes and underneath targets to running backs and tight ends force Manning to get the ball out quickly.

A lot has been made about Manning holding onto the ball too long and rightfully so. According to PFF, Manning’s average time to throw this season is 2.99 seconds. Among 187 FBS quarterbacks who’ve recorded at least 50 dropbacks this season, Manning’s time is tied for the 34th-longest in the country.

Holding onto the ball too long compounds Texas’ pass protection issues. Manning’s pressure-to-sack rate of 27.8 percent is pacing well ahead of his 2025 ratio (13.3 percent) and is on track to be the highest pressure-to-sack rate for a Longhorn starting quarterback since Shane Buechele in 2016 (31.3 percent).

It should come as no surprise then that Manning is effective and efficient when he gets rid of the ball in under 2.5 seconds. According to PFF, Manning gets the job done at a high level when the ball is out of his hands in less than 2.5 seconds (it only happens on 39.4 percent of his dropbacks, which is tied for 150th among the 187 qualifying FBS quarterbacks); he’s completing 72.8 percent of his passes (75-for-103) for 681 yards, with nine touchdowns (tied for 18th in FBS) and one interception.

The quick game works. If Sarkisian continues to lean into it, it could morph into an offensive fulcrum.

— Limiting throws beyond 10 yards downfield to schemed-up deep shots

According to PFF, Manning has only attempted four intermediate (10-19 yards) throws in the last two games (3-for-4, 46 yards and a touchdown), accounting for 8.3 percent of his attempts to a charted depth. That pales in comparison to the first six games of the season, when 23.8 percent of his charted-depth throws were in the intermediate game.

Given the offense’s pass protection struggles and Manning’s sack avoidance (or lack thereof), Sarkisian might've decided the juice isn’t worth the squeeze.

When Manning holds the ball for 2.5 seconds or longer, which has happened on 60.6 percent of his dropbacks, the results have been disastrous. According to PFF, Manning's completion percentage plummets to 57.5 percent in those situations; his six interceptions are tied for the fourth-most in FBS and he's been sacked 22 times (only four FBS quarterbacks have been sacked more times when holding onto the ball that long).

Still, the Texas offense needs explosive plays. Sarkisian has settled on crafting carefully dialed-up deep shots to get the job done.

Manning has thrown nine deep balls (20 yards or more downfield) in the last two weeks, accounting for 18.8 percent of his total attempts to specific depths. Two of Manning’s three completions on deep balls against Ole Miss and Mississippi State went for touchdowns (a 50-yarder to Ryan Wingo against the Rebels and a 42-yarder to Emmett Mosley V against the Bulldogs); overall, he’s 3-for-9 on deep shots for 129 yards, with only one of his deep throws getting intercepted (three interceptions on deep throws through the first six games).

— Leaning on Manning’s legs as a weapon in the running game

Sarkisian has been hesitant to rely on designed runs for Manning. Nevertheless, the numbers suggest he’s accepted that those plays are one of the most effective ways the Longhorns can move the ball.

After Manning recorded six rushing attempts on designed runs through the first six games (according to PFF), he’s carried the ball nine times on such plays in the last two weeks. Those nine carries have netted Texas 31 yards and resulted in four first downs, with two of them going for touchdowns (both against Ole Miss).

Manning also seems more sure of himself when scrambling. While his 24 scrambles through the first six games saw him gain yards that were effectively empty calories (positive yards well short of the line to gain on third down, for instance), Manning’s four scrambles in the last two games have helped the offense move the chains.

Manning’s lone scramble for 19 yards in the win over Ole Miss came on third-and-17, two plays before his second-quarter touchdown pass to Wingo. Two of Manning’s three scrambles in the win over Mississippi State moved the chains, including a 10-yard scramble on third-and-9 en route to a second-quarter field goal by Gianni Spetic.

Manning's 2026 season hasn't played out the way anybody hoped. Still, if the current formula can be replicated and Manning continues to grow, the Longhorns have a realistic path to reach the College Football Playoff.

 

View full news story

 

Agree with all of it but the last one unfortunately  will also likely lead to durability issues. He's got to be already feeling it not matter how tough he is. Arch gets hit sticked every game when he runs a lot. That soreness will affect your throws too. 

[Glass Joe]

4 hours ago, Jeff Howe said:

Believing in your scheme and/or players to a fault. It happens.

After five years though of the same results though?  

Ewers couldn’t complete a deep shot to save his life at any point during his Texas career, but Sark kept trying to make his ideal offense a fit for Ewers.  By his third year as the Starting QB he’d developed into almost exclusively a checkdown, screen pass, and layered intermediate route thrower.  There was nothing resembling Sark’s ideal offense in year 3 of Ewers, so why did we have to watch year-over-year regression?

Next comes the Arch era, and we are two seasons into the journey and the trajectory is decidedly downward….much like the Ewers era.  Yet again, it’s two more years of Sark trying to force a square peg into a round hole, rather than change his own ways / philosophies.  

That makes 5 straight years of Sark blindly trying to make something work that just hasn’t, despite being provided with the most elite toolset in college football.

Maybe the problem isn’t the QBs, OL, Flood, or anything other than the architect of it all.

[SB21]

7 hours ago, Jeff Howe said:

Shoutout to @Rod Babers for putting this theory in front of me. I ran with it, dove through the numbers and there's something there.

The team of you and Rod will always equal a good read or listen. 

[HonkEm]

16 minutes ago, Glass Joe said:

After five years though of the same results though?  

Ewers couldn’t complete a deep shot to save his life at any point during his Texas career, but Sark kept trying to make his ideal offense a fit for Ewers.  By his third year as the Starting QB he’d developed into almost exclusively a checkdown, screen pass, and layered intermediate route thrower.  There was nothing resembling Sark’s ideal offense in year 3 of Ewers, so why did we have to watch year-over-year regression?

Next comes the Arch era, and we are two seasons into the journey and the trajectory is decidedly downward….much like the Ewers era.  Yet again, it’s two more years of Sark trying to force a square peg into a round hole, rather than change his own ways / philosophies.  

That makes 5 straight years of Sark blindly trying to make something work that just hasn’t, despite being provided with the most elite toolset in college football.

Maybe the problem isn’t the QBs, OL, Flood, or anything other than the architect of it all.

I'm not really trying to argue with you because some of your criticisms are fair, but I see it a little differently.

I think you've got the cause and effect backwards. If Sark were blindly force-feeding his system for five years, Texas wouldn't have gone from 5-7 to living in the playoff conversation every season.

Ewers wasn't running some pure Sark fantasy offense by the end. The offense evolved heavily toward quick game, screens, and intermediate throws because that's what Quinn did best. If anything, Sark spent years adapting to his quarterback.

As for Arch, we're already declaring the experiment a failure two years in? That's the same fan base that wanted to bench Quinn every other week and now talks about him like he was the problem all along.

Sark deserves criticism for protection issues, sloppy execution, and occasional stubbornness. But when the program reaches heights it hadn't seen in over a decade and the conclusion is still "maybe the head coach is the problem," it starts sounding less like analysis and more like someone looking for a guilty verdict.

I just think it's hard to argue the architect is the main problem when he's also the guy who rebuilt the house. 🤘

[Califashorn75]

As Rod says, "Play the hits!"

[CoachScott619]

Sad this is where we're at with a 4th year QB and an "Offensive" coach in their 6th year. If only we had the budget to assemble an offense that could be average.

[AusMOJO]

13 hours ago, JMarquette said:

Now how do we fix OL?

There is no in season fix. Best you can do is work around it and then actually fix the problem in the off season. Not pretend it's not an issue. 

[Hookem72]

9 hours ago, tsip92 said:

So here’s a contrarian theory…. Might the Texas offense be more effective without Coleman and Wingo because of the temptation they pose re the long ball?  Without them Arch “almost” has to focus on Bishop, Mosley, RBs, and TEs which should generally be quicker throws.  

How many short and intermediate tempo passes do we throw in third quarter.  Seems like the sequencing is failed run, (throw bomb/failed run) long third down, punt.

I don’t see defenses stopping our short and intermediate passes unless it is a screen getting blown up because the screen blockerr gets jammed.  This is what works in the scripts at the beginning of every game with a bomb thrown in.  When the bomb is caught, yay, it works.  When arch gets sacked, we start spiraling.   
 

Throw some quick slants for god’s sake. 

[Austalgia]

13 hours ago, Beard N Balls Bundle said:

How does an offensive guru not figure out that the juice isn’t worth the squeeze until week 7? 

Because he’s not an offensive guru.  He’s been figured out and won’t adapt 

[Austalgia]

8 hours ago, HonkEm said:

I'm not really trying to argue with you because some of your criticisms are fair, but I see it a little differently.

I think you've got the cause and effect backwards. If Sark were blindly force-feeding his system for five years, Texas wouldn't have gone from 5-7 to living in the playoff conversation every season.

Ewers wasn't running some pure Sark fantasy offense by the end. The offense evolved heavily toward quick game, screens, and intermediate throws because that's what Quinn did best. If anything, Sark spent years adapting to his quarterback.

As for Arch, we're already declaring the experiment a failure two years in? That's the same fan base that wanted to bench Quinn every other week and now talks about him like he was the problem all along.

Sark deserves criticism for protection issues, sloppy execution, and occasional stubbornness. But when the program reaches heights it hadn't seen in over a decade and the conclusion is still "maybe the head coach is the problem," it starts sounding less like analysis and more like someone looking for a guilty verdict.

I just think it's hard to argue the architect is the main problem when he's also the guy who rebuilt the house. 🤘

He’s the main fix in personnel overall, we have a talented roster.   He’s the main fix for the defense, he hired Muschamp, recruited the players etc.  He is absolutely responsible for the poor performance on offense for the same reasons.  The offense just isn’t good.  Objectively. The play calling just isn’t good. The Oline just isn’t good . He can’t or won’t figure it out, and that is his job and side of the ball . That’s probably the problem.  He’s blind to his own failures, and keeps beating a dead horse (his offense which is dated).  The problem is he has used some concepts in the past he just isn’t utilizing.  Passing to tight ends and running backs more as an example.  Oline blocking is atrocious, I think you need a PHD to figure out his oline schemes . That is one problem .  Stand square to the damn line shoulder to shoulder and block what is coming with weight back in your ars and a good punch .  Stop turning this way and that and zone blocking .  It’s crap and confusing .  Offense is his  fault just like other successes are to his credit. 

[Jarveaux]

It is not all doom and gloom friends . I believe that will show Saturday. I’ve said over a year Arch would come back next year . It’s a family tradition for the Mannings to play out their eligibility. Two Unc’s & Gramps did . No doubt we will lose KJ if Arch doesn’t declare. But what if we wouldn’t. I would hope he will stick with Texas . It is inexcusable to lose to two unranked teams . Lost by three points each . But our season isn’t over by far . We criticize if we want to . I believe it hurts our recruiting. But obviously i could be wrong. No Manning has ever won a Heisman or National Championship.  Arch still can . Perhaps I just love Texas too much . But I believe the best is yet to come. “Hookem “

Edited 49 minutes ago by Jarveaux

[Grant Ward]

49 minutes ago, Jarveaux said:

It is not all doom and gloom friends . I believe that will show Saturday. I’ve said over a year Arch would come back next year . It’s a family tradition for the Mannings to play out their eligibility. Two Unc’s & Gramps did . No doubt we will lose KJ if Arch doesn’t declare. But what if we wouldn’t. I would hope he will stick with Texas . It is inexcusable to lose to two unranked teams . Lost by three points each . But our season isn’t over by far . We criticize if we want to . I believe it hurts our recruiting. But obviously i could be wrong. No Manning has ever won a Heisman or National Championship.  Arch still can . Perhaps I just love Texas too much . But I believe the best is yet to come. “Hookem “

If Arch and Texas flame out and miss the playoff, Manning will not be back at Texas.