OTF Premium Why reversing negative play differential is paramount to Texas' success in 2026

[Jeff Howe]

After reading CJ Vogel’s examination of time of possession as a statistic that must change for Texas to reach its ceiling in 2026, my focus shifted to play differential.

It’s not that one statistic is better than the other. I prefer to lean on a team’s play differential (the positive or negative difference between the number of plays a team runs on offense and the number of plays their defense faces) because it’s a more precise measurement of game control.

If an opponent leans on an up-tempo offense and runs a lot of plays with a premium on getting more possessions, or if an opponent wants to take the air out of the football and make the game shorter, play differential can paint a more accurate picture than time of possession. No matter how you slice it, when it comes to what the Longhorns did last season, play differential (like time of possession) must improve to maximize the team’s potential.

Texas finished the 2025 season with a minus-47 overall play differential (minus-3.6 per game), which ranked 15th in the SEC. Against SEC competition, the Longhorns had the worst total play differential (minus-79) in the conference and ranked last in the SEC in per-game play differential (minus-9.9).

In short, Texas’ conference opponents ran roughly 10 more plays per game than the Longhorns. That might not sound like much, but when considering that SEC foes averaged 1.5 scoring drives of 10 or more plays per game against Texas (12 double-digit play scoring drives by SEC opponents in eight conference games), it's a problem that must be fixed.

The highest priority to get the issue resolved is the Longhorns running the football better than they did last season, especially in conference play. Only Alabama’s 89.9 rushing yards per game against SEC opponents kept Texas from being the worst rushing offense in the conference, with an average of 93.1 yards per game on the ground in eight conference games.

Texas also must do a better job of getting off the field on third and fourth down, which includes being a better defense on first and second down.

Pete Kwiatkowski's defense faced an average of 14.7 third downs per game against SEC opponents in 2025, a mark topped only by Oklahoma’s 14.9 for the most in the conference.

Even when the Longhorns got third-down stops (a 39.8-percent conversion rate by SEC opponents ranked 10th in the conference, which was well above the defense’s season average of 33.5 percent), only Ole Miss defended more fourth-down conversion attempts (34 in 15 games) than the 31 times the Texas defense was on the field on fourth down. The Longhorns finished fourth in the conference and tied for 30th nationally in fourth-down defense (45.2-percent conversion rate allowed), but only Alabama and Auburn (15 each) allowed more teams to convert on fourth down than the 14 times it happened to the Longhorns.

Texas allowed opponents to convert eight of the combined 16 fourth-down attempts it faced against SEC opponents.

Without question, coming off a year in which the Longhorns were one of five SEC offenses that failed to run at least 500 plays against conference opponents (499, which tied with Florida for the third fewest in the league), the running game must improve. At the same time, Steve Sarkisian brought Will Muschamp back to the Forty Acres to call the defense so that his aggressive style can create more negative plays to get opponents behind the chains and promote more turnover-forcing opportunities, which must happen for Texas to shrink the wide gap in play differential from last season.

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[Jeff Howe]

Shoutout to @CJ Vogel for his time-of-possession breakdown, which sent me down a rabbit hole examining play differential. In our Longhorn Blitz days with @Rod Babers, Matt Butler and I, Matt is the one who pointed out play differential as something to look to understand TOP better (kinda like looking at touchdown rate in the red zone instead of conversion rate as a whole when determining success or failure).

[Burnt Orange Horn]

Excellently written article, Jeff!

🤘🏻🤘🏼🤘

[Jeff Howe]

2 minutes ago, Burnt Orange Horn said:

Excellently written article, Jeff!

🤘🏻🤘🏼🤘

🤘

[charlie990]

10 minutes ago, Jeff Howe said:

Texas allowed opponents to convert eight of the combined 16 fourth-down attempts it faced against SEC opponents.

How many of these were in the godforsaken Kentucky game

[CJ Vogel]

6 minutes ago, charlie990 said:

How many of these were in the godforsaken Kentucky game

Trying to forget that game ever existed.

[Jeff Howe]

17 minutes ago, charlie990 said:

How many of these were in the godforsaken Kentucky game

Kentucky was actually 1-of-3 on fourth down. Felt a lot worse though.

Vanderbilt was 2-for-2, FWIW.

[Joe Zura]

Great article Jeff 

[Jeff Howe]

15 minutes ago, Joe Zura said:

Great article Jeff 

🤘

[Jeff Howe]

31 minutes ago, CJ Vogel said:

Trying to forget that game ever existed.

Since that's the one game I attended this season, I'll take the blame.

If @Blake Munroe accepts blame for the baseball series loss at Tennessee, I don't mind being on the hook for the forgettable Kentucky performance.

[Dawson Yarbrough]

The amount of 2nd and 13 we had game after game after game was very frustrating. Hopefully we are much more efficient next year on 1st and 2nd down.  

[Sanka Decaf]

Really appreciate this analysis.  As I started reading, the first question that popped into my mind - is it more on the offense (to stay on the field longer) or the defense (to get off the field quicker).  Regardless of what the status show, last year, it felt like our offense went into long stretches of 3 and out in many games.  I'd love to see more opening possession (on offense) sustained drives that result in touchdowns (or at least points).  It may not be statistical, but it seems that psychologically, if you can score on a methodical opening drive, it has a lot more effect that just that seven points.  Thanks for going down this rabbit hole!

[Blue Horn]

43 minutes ago, Jeff Howe said:

Kentucky was actually 1-of-3 on fourth down. Felt a lot worse though.

Vanderbilt was 2-for-2, FWIW.

The only reason Vandy was able to come back was that they refused to call holding penalties when the OTs would tackle Simmons in the second half. I felt like I was watching us play Okie State.

[Sanka Decaf]

15 minutes ago, Blue Horn said:

The only reason Vandy was able to come back was that they refused to call holding penalties when the OTs would tackle Simmons in the second half. I felt like I was watching us play Okie State.

officiating in that vandy game at the end was crazy.  If only I had had a water bottle . . .  just kidding.

[Beldar]

1 hour ago, Jeff Howe said:

Kentucky was actually 1-of-3 on fourth down. Felt a lot worse though.

Vanderbilt was 2-for-2, FWIW.

Remember one Kentucky did not pick up.

 

[Bobby Burton]

Two factors combined to produce this result:

1. Sark searching for chunk plays.

2. PK’s bend but don’t break defensive style.

I think that can lead to non-complimentary football and is part of why Sark made the change he did at DC. 

[Bobby Burton]

31 minutes ago, Beldar said:

Remember one Kentucky did not pick up.

 

In OT!

The Kentucky and Mississippi State games back-to-back on the road showed the Horns, despite being young, had a spine even if they were imperfect.

[Thailand T Sip]

@CJ Vogel@Jeff Howe Really appreciate both write ups. CJ, you gave us the sketch & Jeff, you colored it. I never looked at efficiency like this. It's really a team stat. Really need a strong defense to reduce opponents plays & the offense needs to take advantage of possessions. Earlier there was a discussion about which player benefits the most from Muschamp's arrival. Indirectly, it's going to be Arch & the O by getting more possession opportunities.

[Dawson Yarbrough]

1 hour ago, Blue Horn said:

The only reason Vandy was able to come back was that they refused to call holding penalties when the OTs would tackle Simmons in the second half. I felt like I was watching us play Okie State.

Not even kidding when I say that that was the game that made me realize gambling is affecting officiating. They did everything they could to get Vandy caught up. And what do you know? They covered the spread! 

[tsip92]

3 hours ago, Dawson Yarbrough said:

The amount of 2nd and 13 we had game after game after game was very frustrating. Hopefully we are much more efficient next year on 1st and 2nd down.  

Completely agree.  We were tragically inconsistent on first down.  We either made a first down or were WAY behind the sticks.  A bad cocktail of poor OL play, poor RB play, and ineffective passing plays / calls.  Hopefully an improved OL and RB room provides the foundation for substantial improvement here. 

[Hookem72]

2 hours ago, Bobby Burton said:

Two factors combined to produce this result:

1. Sark searching for chunk plays.

2. PK’s bend but don’t break defensive style.

I think that can lead to non-complimentary football and is part of why Sark made the change he did at DC. 

A bend but dont break defense also compounds the problems for a bunch yardage system when the QB is cold.  You end up having the QB sit on the bench for long periods of time while the defense gets worn out.  The fact we were able to hang in on so many of these games is a testament to Torre Becton and not PK. 

[Here for the Wins]

34 minutes ago, Hookem72 said:

A bend but dont break defense also compounds the problems for a bunch yardage system when the QB is cold.  You end up having the QB sit on the bench for long periods of time while the defense gets worn out.  The fact we were able to hang in on so many of these games is a testament to Torre Becton and not PK. 

 I didn’t  check the non- conference games besides OSU.  We ran 67 to 59 plays versus OSU.

Kentucky ran 32 more plays than us including overtime.  The defense could have done better, but the offense was the bigger issue.  Texas had 3 3 and outs in the 4th quarter.  Four of 6 2nd half possessions were 3 and outs.  Perhaps you remember the failure to stay in bounds preceding the FG in regulation that kept UK alive.  

Arkansas ran 20 more plays, but we only had 3 guys with 50+ snaps.  We also won going away.

Every other conference game, and we were within 5 snaps.  Only the MSU game had more than 70.

So I’ll need some elaboration as to how Becton was the guy over PK in “so many” of these games.

[Jarveaux]

12 hours ago, Dawson Yarbrough said:

Not even kidding when I say that that was the game that made me realize gambling is affecting officiating. They did everything they could to get Vandy caught up. And what do you know? They covered the spread! 

Exactly Dawson , It wouldn’t surprise me at all you would see Bookie businesses sponsoring Bowl games in the near future. I’ve stated my thoughts on College sports gambling. No need to rehash it . But it’s bad , and getting worse.

[Hookem72]

I was speaking in general about how bend but dont break keeps your cold offense from getting warm and also keeping your defense on the field longer.  Becton is key because our guys were not gassed in the 4th quarter which resulted, if you recall, in a number of goalline stands to prevent touchdowns.  If your defensive line is gassed—even with the depth we have—we lose some of those games  That is why I am praising Becton   

 

[Here for the Wins]

I get the praise for Becton so it was the discredit to PK to which I didn’t agree.

There have been discussions about our defense being on the field too much and being tired.  I’d wager we rotate more players than most.  This discussion is good because it’s about the number of plays rather than TOP.

A note on snaps.  For example Ole Miss had one Dlineman average 51 snaps a game.  Another was 46.  Kanu averaged 36, January 34.  Now the Kentucky and MSU games were the highest.   The weather at UK was good so that was not an energy draining type game.  Go back a decade ago when many teams ran 80+ plays a game and ask how they feel about only playing 60 or fewer snaps per game.

Ultimately the snaps discrepancy was two games.  One we created separation.  Then there was Kentucky.  Even at the last possession of regulation, the offense had a great chance to end it.  Kentucky was definitely a challenge but one game does not make a trend.